On-Line Forex Trading Tips

Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2011-01-12T07:59:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday. The major bearish outlook remains intact, but for now let’s talk about how far the single currency could rebound to the upside. On h4 chart below we can see price is now traded around 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.3431 – 1.2873 around 1.3000 level. A consistent move above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 38.2% Fibo around 1.3085 even testing 1.3170 region. I see no indication of a technical bullish reversal so far, so although the bias is bullish in nearest term, we have to see the current bullish momentum as a counter trend move. I personally prefer to stand aside for now and will re-activate my bearish mode on a Euro weakness back below 1.2900 – 1.2870 region targeting 1.2700 – 1.2600 support area. Immediate support at 1.2950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2900 – 1.2870.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. However, on h4 chart below we can see price slipped above the bearish channel indicates potential bearish failure and bullish reversal scenario. Price has been making higher lows and highs in the last three days suggests the bullish correction remains strong. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5650 targeting 1.5750/70 area. Immediate support at 1.5550. Clear break below that area could create a false break out scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.5500 – 1.5474 and keep the bearish scenario intact with downside target around 1.5000.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The H&S bearish scenario has failed, but so far price unable to move consistently above 83.40 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 83.40 and break above the bearish channel (red), still targeting 84.40 region. Immediate support at 82.80. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 82.33 but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF finally made an upside breakout yesterday after three days of indecisive movement. The bias is bullish in nearest term as the bullish flag scenario is now confirmed targeting 0.9800 – 0.9850 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.9675. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear testing 0.9600 support area and re-activate my wait and see mode.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 108.25 and closed at 108.10. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing the trend line resistance and 109.00 – 109.50 but note that as long as price stay below the trend line resistance the major scenario remains bearish. Immediate support at 107.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 107.05 and could end the bullish correction phase with 106.25 and 105.42 as bearish targets.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant upside breakout above 129.30 strong resistance area yesterday, topped at 130.34 and closed at 129.99. The bias is bullish in nearest term and my bullish reversal scenario is now confirmed at least targeting 131.40 area. On the downside, another move below 129.30 could be a threat to the bullish reversal scenario as a false breakout scenario could be produced at least testing 128.75 support area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9803 and closed at 0.9817. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9750/30 support area. However, note that we haven’t seen bullish correction since the strong bearish momentum from 1.0256 (a look at daily chart will help) so any upside correction now is normal but overall we are still in bearish scenario with 0.9550 as potential downside target. Immediate resistance at 0.9885. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9987 resistance area.

Jan-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2011-01-11T06:19:00.000Z

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. I still prefer to keep out from the market for now as market still consolidate without clear direction and consistent momentum, but aggressive intra-day traders can still short around the upper line of the bearish channel (now around 1.5620/30) or long around the trend line support (around 1.5400 – 1.5370) with tight stop loss. A clear break above the bearish channel could be a serious threat to the technical bearish outlook while a clear break below the trend line support would confirm the bearish continuation scenario targeting 1.5000. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.5630/50 resistance area. Clear break above that area and violation to the bearish channel could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 1.5474 followed by 1.5400 – 1.5370.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 82.66 and now struggling around 82.80. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario, but as you can see on my h4 chart below, we have a head and shoulders bearish pattern which is a serious threat to the bullish outlook. My bullish mode would be re-activated by a clear break above the left shoulder around 83.40 targeting 84.40 as the H&S bearish scenario would no longer valid. Immediate support at 82.33.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped above the flag formation as you can see on my h4 chart below, but we have no significant upside breakout so far and price made another Doji formation on daily chart. Three Dojis since Thursday is more than enough to show us that price is now consolidating. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario with 0.9750 – 0.9800 remains the nearest bullish target. Immediate support remains around 0.9600 followed by 0.9550.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, but had a bullish correction earlier today in Asian session, hit 107.85. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 108.50 but as long as price stay below the trend line resistance the major scenario remains to the downside. Immediate support at 107.05 (current low). Break below that area could end the bullish correction phase and continue the bearish pressure targeting 106.25 before testing 105.42.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. We are still in bullish correction phase, but 129.30 resistance area has proven itself as a strong resistance. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in critical technical point, where a clear break above 129.30 could be an early signal of bullish reversal at least targeting 130.30 in nearest term. Immediate support at 128.30 followed by 127.50.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, but had a bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session, hit 0.9841. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9800 – 0.9750 support area and I think it’s good to keep the idea that we are in potential big downside correction scenario after hit all time high. Immediate resistance at 0.9880. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in a strong bearish correction scenario with medium term bearish target is seen around 0.9550 area.

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2011-01-07T06:40:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2983 and hit 1.2969 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term, testing 1.2920 and the trend line support. From another technical perspective as you can see on my daily chart below, the trend line support is also the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. A clear break below the neckline would confirm the bearish continuation scenario at least testing 1.2700 – 1.2600 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3040. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term. Note that as long as the trend line support/neckline hold, we are still in consolidation phase where bearish continuation scenario is not validated yet. Fundamental focus on the US NFP number today, which is expected to be good, forecast around 159K with previous number only 39K. A better than expected US NFP number could send the Euro lower below the neckline and confirm the bearish continuation scenario while a worse than expected number could prevent further bearish pressure and keep price in range area but I think overall the pressure remains to the downside.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5562 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5445 and hit 1.5435 earlier today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the minor trend line support indicates potential further bearish pressure testing 1.5370/50 and the trend line support in nearest term, but note that as long as price stay above the trend line support we are still in consolidation phase. Immediate resistance at 1.5525/50 area. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5600/50. Fundamental focus on the US NFP number today, which is expected to be good, forecast around 159K with previous number only 39K. A better than expected US NFP number could push Sterling lower testing the trend line support while a worse than expected result could prevent further bearish pressure and keep price in range area, but the major scenario remains to the downside.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still with more upside bias after the violation of the bearish channel testing 0.9750 – 0.9800 resistance area. Immediate support remains around 0.9600 followed by 0.9550. Fundamental focus on US NFP today.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall still with more upside bias after the false breakdown below the trend line support and strong break above 82.33 testing 84.40 key resistance area. Immediate support remains around 82.80. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 82.33 support area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 108.10 and closed at 108.26. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 107.30 before targeting 106.25 support area. Immediate resistance at 109.00 and the trend line resistance (around 109.50). A clear break above the trend line resistance could be a threat to the bearish scenario and potential bullish reversal scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in critical phase with 129.30 as a key resistance area, where a clear break above that area could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario at least testing 130.30. Immediate support at 128.41 (yesterday’s low). Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 128.00 – 127.50 support area and could be an early signal of bearish continuation testing 126.50 even lower.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 0.9927 and hit 0.9918 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term as a psychological correction after hit historical high and the breakdown below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below testing 0.9860. We already have four consecutive bearish daily candles since the fall from 1.0256 so any upside pullback is normal. Immediate resistance at 0.9987 – 1.0013. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as price would be in consolidation phase both on nearest and medium term outlook.

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2011-01-06T08:19:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3125 and closed at 1.3149. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3000 – 1.2968 key support area but note that overall we are still trapped in range area as you can see on my daily chart below and need a clear break below the trend line support to continue the major bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.3200. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3250 – 1.3300.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. The bias is bearish in nearest term but overall we are still in consolidation phase without clear direction and consistent momentum. On h4 chart below we can see that during the major bearish move, price made some upside corrections before continue to move lower after broke below some minor trend line supports. Now, price is testing another minor trend line support. Break below that minor trend line support and 1.5450 support area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5370/50 but note that the major trend line support remains a strong support at this phase and the major bearish continuation scenario testing 1.5000 would be validated only by a clear break below that major trend line support. Immediate resistance at 1.5550. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5600 – 1.5650.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we have a big bullish candle as price made a strong breakout above 82.33. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 84.40, which is a key resistance area at this phase. Break above that area could be an early signal of a long term bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 82.80. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 82.33 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, violated the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates bearish failure and potential bullish reversal scenario. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9750 – 0.9800 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.9600. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9550.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as price moves below the trend line resistance, the overall bias should be more to the downside. Immediate support at 109.00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 108.60 – 107.80 support area. On the upside, consistent move above 110.22 and trend line resistance could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario and could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday on a broad Yen weakness but so far still unable to move consistently above 129.30. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 129.30 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 130.30 in nearest term even higher as my bullish reversal scenario would be validated. Immediate support at 128.50. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bearish scenario remains strong testing 127.50 – 126.50 support area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, slipped below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9900 – 0.9860 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.0013 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0075 – 1.0100.

Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2011-01-05T02:46:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3431 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 1.3309. Medium bias remains neutral/unclear as price still trapped in range area of 1.3500 – 1.2968. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the minor bullish channel indicates potential bearish bias in nearest term testing 1.3200 – 1.3170 support area but I’m only interested shorting the Euro around 1.3500. Immediate resistance at 1.3370. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3400/50 but only a clear break above 1.3500 would be a threat to the bearish outlook. Overall price still consolidation without clear direction and consistent momentum so do not rush jump into the market.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday, topped at 1.5644 and closed at 1.5595, made another bullish daily candle. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5700 and the upper line of the bearish channel. As long as the bearish channel hold, the major scenario remains bearish so the upper line of the bearish channel still a good place for a short position, but a valid violation to the bearish channel could be an early signal of a bullish reversal and activate my bullish mode testing 1.6000 region. Immediate support at 1.5550. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5500 – 1.5450 but as long as price moves above the trend line we are still in consolidation phase with a neutral medium bias.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish correction yesterday but still unable to break above 82.33 so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 82.33 to continue the bullish correction, lead us to neutral medium bias testing 82.80 resistance area even higher. Immediate support at 81.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and only a clear break below 81.30 would re-activated my bearish mode testing 80.00.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 0.9515 and closed at 0.9478. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9550 and the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above the bearish channel could be a threat to the current bearish outlook with potential bullish reversal scenario testing 0.9750 area. Immediate support at 0.9440. Break below that area would keep the major bearish scenario remains strong testing 0.9350/00 support area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 110.22 but closed significantly lower at 109.26 in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see price made a strong bearish pullback after slipped above the trend line resistance indicates a potential false breakout scenario which could trigger further bearish pressure in nearest term testing 108.60 and 107.30 support area. We are at critical technical point here, where a clear break above the trend line resistance and consistent move above 110.22 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 128.57 and closed at 128.01. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 129.30 resistance area which could be a key level at this phase. The arrows as seen on my daily chart below give a good view about two potential scenarios. Overall we are still in a major bearish outlook, but a clear break above 129.30 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. On the other hand, a failure to break above 129.30 and a movement back below 127.00 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong still targeting 125.50 even lower.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.0027 and closed at 1.0054. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9987 and the trend line support (white). Medium bias remains bullish, but after hit historical highs, we still have potential big downside correction from here. A clear break below 0.9987 could be an early signal of a major big bearish reversal, gives us further confirmation of a bearish short term outlook testing 0.9900, but only a clear break below 0.9550 would give further validation to the long term big bearish reversal scenario. It’s a long way to go and movement could remain tricky with broad Dollar consolidation is still in play.

Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2011-01-04T07:31:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. There are no significant technical movement so far and overall still ranging between 1.3500 – 1.2968. This trendless/consolidation market is not an ideal condition to have any position. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. Immediate resistance at 1.3400. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3500. Immediate support at 1.3300. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3250 (yesterday’s low). I still prefer a bearish scenario, but a clear break above 1.3500 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario and would activate my bullish mode.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The major scenario remains bearish as long as price still moves inside the bearish channel, but need a clear break below the trend line support, which has proven itself as a strong support area at this phase. I only see potential good trades to short around the upper line of the bearish channel (around 1.5700) or long around the trend line support (around 1.5370 – 1.5400) with tight stop loss. Any trades between those area is not “safe” for me, as short term volatility could easily hit our stop loss as market remains consolidating without clear direction and consistent momentum and the risk-reward ratio is bad. I still prefer a bearish scenario and expect a clear break below the trend line support, but until that happen, we have no further validation for the bearish continuation scenario. Be patient.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 81.74 and hit 81.93 earlier today in Asian session. If you look at the daily chart, yesterday’s bullish candle was the first convincing bullish candle since strong bearish momentum from 84.35, so this was a normal bullish correction. However, the bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 82.33. A clear break above that area could trigger further short term bullish momentum and change the medium term outlook from bearish to neutral. On the downside, we need another clear break below 81.30 to keep the strong bearish scenario intact still targeting 80.00 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on Daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we may now enter the consolidation phase with potential upside correction, but the main scenario remains strongly bearish. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9395 followed by 0.9440. On the downside, clear break below 0.9300 could trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.9200 region.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish bias yesterday, violated the minor bearish channel to the upside as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 109.50 testing 110.10/50 and could be a serious threat to the major bearish scenario. Immediate support at 108.60. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 107.30 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong as a false breakout scenario could be produced.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish correction yesterday and hit 126.94 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 128.00 as the failure to make a clear break below the horizontal support area could trigger some upside rebounds. If we look at the daily chart, the bullish correction/consolidation move in the last two days is actually a normal correction and the major scenario remains bearish, but unless price make a clear break below 125.50, we may see further upside pullback. Immediate support at 126.33 (current low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would give a bearish pressure another chance to test 125.50 support area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0149 and hit 1.0122 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 1.0115/20 support area testing 1.0050/00. On the upside, another movement above 1.0182 would keep the major bullish scenario strong, testing 1.0228/56 before set to make further historical highs.

Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-24T08:35:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. Overall bias remains bearish as generally price is making lower highs and lows on h4 chart but limited bearish pressure and ranging market could continue as we are entering holiday season. I still prefer a bearish major scenario but again, would need a clear break below the trend line support and 1.3060 key support area before testing 1.2968 – 1.2920. Expected range remains between 1.3200 – 1.3070/60 and need a clear break from either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive traders may long around 1.3070/60 or short around 1.3170 – 1.3200 with tight stop loss. Standing aside until we have a clear break or waiting until next year before jump into the market is not a bad idea too.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a limited bullish momentum yesterday as the daily trend line support still did a good job preventing further bearish pressure. Another reason why the bearish momentum is limited so far is that we are entering holiday season and the end of the year where range market and consolidation condition usually take place. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.5470/80. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.5550/70 but overall we are still in strong bearish outlook. Initial support remains around 1.5350 – 1.5300. A clear break below that area could give us further validation to a bigger bearish scenario testing 1.5000 psychological level.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after broke below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 82.50/33 support area, but my medium outlook remains unclear/neutral. Immediate resistance at 83.56 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a strong upside pullback yesterday, topped at 0.9664. I was anticipating some upside corrections, but not that high. However, price closed significantly lower at 0.9574 and now struggling again around 0.9550 indicates that the bearish pressure is still alive and kicking especially if price make another movement below 0.9550 with 0.9461 as the nearest target. Few days ago I said that 0.9550 – 0.9461 could be a good support until next year so we may still have range market and some bullish pullback, but my overall outlook remains to the downside.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish bias yesterday, bottomed at 108.44 but closed higher at 108.95. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My intermediate bearish target at 108.33 is considered hit, but the major outlook remains to the downside. Tomorrow is Christmas day and we may have some upside pullback today as market could make consolidation move so I will stand aside for now and prepare to enjoy my holiday. On the downside, clear break below 108.33 could trigger further bearish outlook testing 107.30 support area. Immediate resistance at 109.50 followed by 110.10.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 127.44 but closed higher at 128.20 in a volatile market. Price is now struggling around 128.00. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but we are still in the double top strong bearish scenario still targeting 127.00 – 126.50 especially if price make another movement below 128.00. Immediate resistance at 128.74 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 129.33. Holiday season may create consolidation condition with limited momentum, so it’s a good idea to stand aside for now and enjoy your holiday.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish bias yesterday, topped at 1.0065 and closed at 1.0036. The bias remains bullish in nearest term with 1.0090 – 1.0100 as the nearest target before re-testing all time high at 1.0182. Immediate support at 1.0000. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9950/00 but only a break below the trend line support (red) could be a threat the bullish scenario. Tomorrow is Christmas! Merry Christmas and better stop trading and enjoy your holiday people!

Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-23T08:03:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. Overall bias remains to the downside, but the trend line support still hold so far, preventing further downside pressure as you can see on my h4 chart below and we still need a consistent move below the trend line support and 1.3060 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2968 and 1.2920. A look at the weekly chart can easily reveal that market is actually indecisive now, make a small Doji and moving in a range area between 1.3200 – 1.3073. A clear break above 1.3200 could trigger further upside consolidation testing 1.3250 – 1.3300 area but overall outlook remains strongly bearish.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5400 and the daily chart trend line support yesterday, hit 1.5352 but still unable to stay consistently below the trend line support so far and now back above 1.5400. Price is now in critical phase in longer term outlook where a clear move below the trend line support could lead us to a bigger bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.5500. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5550 – 1.5600 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains bearish. Immediate support at 1.5350 – 1.5300 which is also the nearest bearish target. A clear break below that area could give us further validation to a bigger bearish scenario testing 1.5000 psychological level.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session, fell below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below and hit 83.06 suggests a bearish view in nearest term testing 82.80/50 support area. However my medium outlook remains neutral for this pair and price still trapped in range area of 84.40 – 82.33. Immediate resistance at 83.56 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below the triple bottom formation at 0.9550 area. This fact opens the door for further strong bearish pressure at least targeting 0.9461 – 0.9400 in nearest term. Note that price already made three consecutive bearish candles on daily chart, so any upside pullback is normal but the main scenario remains strongly bearish. Another move above 0.9550 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9600 but long position is not recommended.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, but had a bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session hit 108.91. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 108.33. Immediate resistance at 109.50. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 110.00/50 resistance area but overall we are still in the rising wedge strong bearish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after made a strong break below 129.33, bottomed at 128.32 and hit 128.04 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 128.00 targeting 127.00 – 126.50 this week. Immediate resistance at 128.74 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 129.33 but overall we are still in strong bearish scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.0036. The rising wedge bearish reversal scenario has failed now and we could have a good probability for a bullish continuation targeting all time high at 1.0182. Nearest term bullish target is seen around 1.0090 area. On the downside, another move below 1.0000 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term. I think we are in a critical phase now and things could be very tricky. After hit all time high at 1.0182, people are thinking about a big downside pullback but the facts now do not support that idea yet. While long term traders may still prefer a short position, intra-day traders must trade what they are seeing now, a strong bullish bias.

Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-22T09:56:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3201 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3073, closed at 1.3090 and corrected a little bit higher hit 1.3142 earlier today in Asian session. Overall we are still in downside bias, but as you can see on my h4 chart below, the trend line support still hold so far. We need a clear break below the trend line support and 1.3060 support area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 1.2968 – 1.2920 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.3170 followed by 1.3250.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday, slipped below the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5400 support area, which could be an important support at this phase along with a trend line support on daily chart. Immediate resistance remains around 1.5580. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.5650 but overall the scenario remains to the downside.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive and didn’t make significant movement yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. There are no changes in my daily technical view and I will keep stand aside for now. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. Immediate support at the trend line support and 83.50. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 83.10 and 82.80. Immediate resistance remains around 84.40 which need to be broken to the upside in order to see further bullish pressure testing 85.00/20 region.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 0.9562 and closed at 0.9579. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9550 support area (triple bottom) targeting 0.9461. Immediate resistance at 0.9600. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term, but may give us an early signal of potential bullish pullback based on the triple bottom formation testing 0.9700 region.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in the rising wedge bearish scenario but would need a clear break below 109.50 to continue the bearish pressure targeting 108.33. Immediate resistance at 110.70 followed by 111.60/90.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 129.33 but unable to stay below that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in strong bearish scenario of the double top formation but need a clear break below 129.33 to continue the bearish pressure testing 127.00 – 126.50 this week. Immediate resistance at 130.27 followed by 130.84.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish intra-day bias yesterday, but still moves below 1.0000/27 resistance, which need to be clearly broken to the upside to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0070/90 in nearest term before re-testing all time high at 1.0182. Immediate support remains around 0.9900. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the trend line support which would give the rising wedge bearish reversal scenario another chance.

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-21T06:55:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 1.3093 and closed at 1.3116 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session hit 1.3193. As you can see on daily chart below we have an important trend line support, which could be a good technical support for the Euro as we are entering Christmas season and the end of the year. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but a clear break above 1.3193 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.3250 resistance area. On the downside, break below 1.3116 (current low) would keep the bearish pressure remains strong targeting 1.3060 before testing 1.2968 – 1.2920 this week.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a triangle formation indicates consolidation but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel overall we are still in a bearish outlook. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.5580. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.5650 and the upper line of the triangle. On the downside, another strong movement below 1.5500 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong testing 1.5450 – 1.5400 before testing 1.5300 support area this week.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bearish bias yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 84.40 key resistance area last week. On h4 chart below we can see price seems ready to test the trend line support (white) and 83.10 support area in nearest term. Overall we are still in range market. A clear break below the trend line support could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.80/50. Immediate resistance at 84.11 followed by 84.40. Technically we still need a clear break above 84.40 to continue the bullish scenario testing 85.00/20.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9630 and hit 0.9619 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9550. A clear break below that area would give us further bearish continuation validation at least testing 0.9461. Note that we are now entering Christmas season and the end of the year where ranging market is potential. Immediate resistance at 0.9733. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 0.9800. CCI is moving up and down between 100 and -100 level on h4 chart suggests that this pair is not a good pair to be traded right now.

Dec-20 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-20T06:47:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive last week, but overall looks like the pressure is more to the downside as price is now traded below 1.3170 key support area after break below the rising wedge, testing 1.2968 – 1.2920 this week. Nearest term target is seen around 1.3100 – 1.3060. A movement back above 1.3170 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3280 resistance area.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5500 on Friday but so far still unable to stay consistently below that area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 1.5475 testing 1.5400 before targeting 1.5300 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.5583. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5650 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in strong bearish scenario.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive on Friday. There are no significant technical moves so far and my daily outlook remains the same for this pair. Overall bias remains to the upside, but still need a clear break above 84.40 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 85.00/20.On the downside, a clear break below 83.64 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 83.10 which would force me to wait a little longer before re-activate my bullish mode.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Friday, slipped below the minor bullish channel, bottomed at 0.9557 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.9719 and closed at 0.9686 in a volatile market. Although the major outlook remains to the downside, looks like we may have a bottom at this phase with key support area at 0.9550 – 0.9461 which could be a good support in the end of the year. Immediate resistance at 0.9733. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9800.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 110.39 and closed at 110.74 after found a good resistance around 111.91. This fact gives us further validation to the rising wedge bearish scenario testing 109.85 in nearest term. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 108.33. Immediate resistance at 110.70/80. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 111.60/90 resistance area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, fell below 130.84 strong support area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 129.33 as the double top bearish scenario has further bearish validation. On the upside, another move back above 130.84 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 132.00 which could lead us to a ranging market condition.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a rising wedge bearish scenario especially if price able to make a clear break below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below targeting 0.9710. Immediate resistance at 0.9925 followed by 1.0000. Break above 1.0000 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario.

Dec-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-10T06:50:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Overall price still moves in range area of 1.3400 – 13200. On h4 chart below we can see the upper line of the bearish channel still hold so far. Price still making lower highs and lows since the first time it tested the upper line of the bearish channel. CCI in neutral area both in h4 and daily chart but still moves below the zero line. This facts indicate that overall the major bearish scenario remains intact but need a consistent move below 1.3200 – 1.3170 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3100 – 1.2920 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.3322 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.3400/38.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The upper line of the bearish channel still holds so far, keep the major bearish scenario intact. On h4 chart below we can see price still moves in a minor bullish channel (white) indicates that we are still in bullish correction phase. We need a break below the minor bullish channel and 1.5650 support area to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.5550 – 1.5500. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance remains around 1.5850. Consistent move above that area could be a threat to the major bearish outlook testing 1.5900 and could be an early signal of bullish reversal scenario.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.51 but closed higher at 83.81. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we have a bullish flag formation indicates potential bullish scenario especially if price breaks above the flag and 84.40 key resistance area targeting 85.00/20. Immediate support remains at 83.40. Consistent move below that area would keep direction remains unclear.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued it bearish pressure yesterday, but the lower line of the minor bullish channel still holds so far as you can see on my h1 chart below, keep the nearest term bullish scenario intact especially if price able to break above 0.9900 targeting 1.0000. On the other hand, a break below the bullish channel and 0.9800 could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 0.9756-25 support area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 110.57 and closed at 110.99. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase, we have a rising wedge formation as you can see on my h4 chart below as a warning of a potential bearish pullback especially if price break below the wedge testing 109.85 even lower. On the upside we still need a clear break above 111.91 to continue the bullish scenario testing 112.50/80. I will stand aside for now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was corrected lower yesterday, slipped below 132.00 and now struggling around that area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario but would need a break above 133.00 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 134.20. On the downside, consistent move below 132.00 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 130.84 support area. I will stand aside for now.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9883 but closed a little bit lower at 0.9841. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I will keep stand aside for now. On h4 chart below we have an inverse “head and shoulders” formation which is a bullish pattern which could be a potential threat to my bearish reversal scenario especially if price breaks above 1.0000. On the downside we need a clear break below 0.9710 to cancel the bullish outlook and continue the bearish reversal scenario.

Dec-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-09T07:05:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3179 but further downside pressure was rejected, closed higher at 1.3248 and hit 1.3322 earlier today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we can see price still struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall I think price still moves in range market between 1.3200 – 1.3400/38. Clear break above 1.3438 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, immediate support at 1.3240. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3180/50 and keep the bearish scenario intact.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5667 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5793. On h4 chart below we can see price is now struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel indicates critical technical phase. A clear break above the bearish channel and consistent move above 1.5850 could be a threat to the major bearish scenario testing 1.5900. Break above 1.5900 would give further validation to the bearish failure and potential bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 1.5787 (current low). Break below area should keep the bearish scenario intact but only a clear break below 1.5650 could continue the major bearish scenario testing 1.5550 – 1.5500 region.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 84.30 but corrected lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 83.65. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Expected range at 84.40 – 83.40. Break above 84.40 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 85.00/20 and give further validation to bullish reversal scenario. On the other hand, break below 83.40 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.87 and keep my medium outlook in a neutral bias.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant technical move yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price still moves inside the minor bullish channel indicates the nearest bias remains to the upside especially if price able to move consistently above 0.9850/80, still targeting 1.0000 resistance area. On the other hand, a break below the minor bullish channel and 0.9800 support area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9756 – 0.9725.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 111.48 and closed at 111.42. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 111.91. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 112.50/80 which would give further validation to the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 110.75/58. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 109.85/55 support area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had another strong bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 132.99 and closed at 132.88. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make another upside break above 133.00 testing 134.20 key resistance area. Immediate support at 132.00. break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 130.84 support area. I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase and expecting some breaks to the upside.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to test 0.9710 yesterday and traded significantly higher earlier today in Asian session hit 0.9883. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9950 – 1.0000 but my bearish reversal scenario remains valid and only a clear break above 1.0000 could be a threat to my bearish outlook. Immediate support at 0.9800. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9710. I will keep stand aside for now.

Dec-08 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-08T06:40:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3400 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 1.3248 and hit 1.3219 earlier today in Asian session. I have made some adjustment to my bearish channel. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the bullish channel (blue) indicates the bullish correction might be over now targeting 1.3180/50 in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.3280 (current high). Break above that area would keep the bullish correction scenario intact re-testing 1.3400/38 key resistance area and may create a range market between 1.3400 – 1.3200.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5821 but further upside pressure was limited and closed lower at 1.5754. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major scenario remains bearish but we still have a little space for another upside correction attempt testing the upper line of the bearish channel as market remains volatile without consistent momentum. Another move above 1.5787 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5850 area. On the downside, we need a clear break below 1.5650 support area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 1.5550 – 1.5500 this week.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 83.65 and hit 83.90 earlier today in Asian session after made a strong break above 82.87 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 84.40 but unless price makes a clear break above 84.40 my medium term outlook remains neutral. Immediate support at 83.47 (current low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction is unclear testing 82.87.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9756 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 0.9878. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a wide bullish channel reflects a major bullish scenario but with potential big downside corrections. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0000. We need a clear break above 1.0000 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.0182. Immediate support at 0.9850. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term re-testing 0.9756.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after failed to break below 109.55, topped at 111.10 and closed at 110.60 in a volatile market. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 111.19 targeting 111.91 area. Immediate support at 110.58 (current low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone both in nearest and medium term as direction is unclear and may create a range market between 109.55 – 111.19.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 131.77 and closed at 131.51, made a huge bullish candle on daily chart. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break out above 132.00 targeting 133.00 and would be a serious threat to the major bearish outlook. Immediate support at 130.84. Break below that area would keep the major bearish scenario intact re-testing 129.33 strong support area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9964 but whipsawed to the downside, closed lower at 0.9831 and hit 0.9779 earlier today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the bullish channel indicates potential bearish outlook as bullish correction phase could be over testing 0.9710. Immediate resistance at 0.9855. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves below 1.0000 my bearish reversal scenario remains valid.

Dec-07 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-07T06:10:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3246, closed at 1.3288 but traded higher earlier today in Asian session around 1.3340. This fact keep the bullish correction intact as price still moves inside the bullish channel (blue) and still struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel (red). I think we are still in consolidation and critical technical phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.3438. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3500 before testing 1.3700. On the other hand, break below the bullish channel and consistent move below 1.3240/00 could end the bullish correction and continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2920.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5654 but closed higher at 1.5708 and hit 1.5749 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish correction phase but would need a clear break above 1.5787 to continue the bullish pressure testing 1.5850 – 1.5900. Immediate support remains around 1.5650. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5550 – 1.5500 and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but overall still maintain its bearish bias, hit 82.33 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 81.50 area. Immediate resistance at 82.87. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 83.40.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday after found support at 0.9725, slipped above 0.9850 and traded around 0.9800 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bearish outlook since the break below the trend line support (red) remains intact but need a clear break below 0.9725 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9670 even lower. Immediate resistance at 0.9873. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0000. I think I will stand aside for now.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after failed to make a clear break above the trend line resistance and now struggling around 109.85. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 109.55 targeting 108.33. Initial resistance at 110.75 and the trend line resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum but I think we need a clear break above 111.19 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 111.91 even higher.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday but still unable to break below 129.33 which is a good and strong support at this phase. I still maintain my bearish outlook but need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 127.97 and 126.43. Immediate resistance at 130.84 – 131.10 area. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 132.00.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my daily outlook and I am still in wait and see mode. We are still in bullish correction phase but only a clear break above 1.0000 would be a threat to my bearish reversal view. Immediate support remains at 0.9800. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9710 but only a clear break below 0.9710 would reactivate my bearish mode.

Dec-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-06T06:04:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3438 and closed at 1.3412. Price is now in critical phase and struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish phase now but I think we need a clear break above 1.3438 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3500 which could be an early signal of a bullish reversal targeting 1.3700. Immediate support at 1.3280. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3200 which could be an early indication of a false breakout scenario and continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2920.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction on Friday, topped at 1.5787 and closed at 1.5774. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make another upside breakout above 1.5787 testing 1.5850 – 1.5900 region. However, note that as long as price moves inside the bearish channel, the current bullish momentum must be seen just as a counter trend move and only a violation to the bearish channel could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.5650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5550 – 1.5500 and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 82.52 and closed at 82.53. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 82.52 targeting 82.00 before testing the trend line support (red) and 81.50. Immediate resistance at 83.40. Break above that area should keep the medium bullish outlook intact re-testing 84.40 (triple top).

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum on Friday and now back inside the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact is a threat to my medium bullish outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 0.9725 targeting 0.9670 and testing the lower line of the triangle, which is also a trend line support at this phase. Immediate resistance at 0.9850. Break above that area would keep the bullish scenario intact re-testing 1.0000.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher after found support around 109.85. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at the trend line resistance (red) and 111.19. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 111.91. Initial support remains around 109.85. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 108.33 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in a major bearish outlook after the violation to the bullish channel but need a clear break below 129.33 to continue the bearish scenario testing 127.97 even 126.43. Immediate resistance at 130.84 – 131.10 area. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 132.00.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.0000 especially if price able to break above 0.9937 but as long as price stay below 1.0000 I still maintain my bearish reversal scenario after the fall from all time high at 1.0182. Immediate support at 0.9800. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9710 but only a clear break below 0.9710 would reactivate my bearish mode. I will stand aside for now.

Dec-03 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-03T06:23:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bullish correction bias, topped at 1.3246 and closed at 1.3211. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make another break above 1.3250 targeting 1.3300 – 1.3350. Immediate support at 1.3180. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3100 – 1.3055. As long as price moves inside the minor bullish channel (blue) we are still in bullish correction phase. The major scenario remains bearish but need a move below the minor bullish channel and 1.3055 to potentially end the bullish correction and continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2920 region.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in range area of 1.5650 – 1.5500 and need a clear break from either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 1.5650 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5750 while a consistent move below 1.5500 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5400 support area. Overall, we are still in a major bearish phase but like I said, there are still rooms for further upside correction moves and market likely to remains volatile and tricky.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY has been moving in range area of 84.40 – 83.40 in the last three days. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. I still prefer a bullish scenario but would need a clear break above 84.40 (triple top) to continue the bullish scenario at least testing 85.00/22. On the other hand, a clear break below 83.40 could be a threat to the bullish outlook testing 82.87.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9920 targeting 0.9850. Immediate resistance at 1.0000 followed by 1.0050. Although medium term bullish outlook remains intact since the break above the triangle, we need a clear break above 1.0050 to continue the bullish scenario.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 111.19 and the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 111.91. Initial support at 109.85. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 109.00 and 108.40/30 key support area and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday, bottomed at 130.18 and closed at 130.50. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. A violation to the bullish channel could end the bearish correction phase testing 129.83 even 128.90. Immediate resistance at 130.84. Break above that area would keep the bullish correction scenario intact testing 132.00.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday, break above 0.9710 and now testing 0.9778 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.9778 testing 0.9850. Immediate support at 0.9710. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9650/20 support area and keep the bearish reversal scenario remains strong but bearish continuation would have further validation only by a clear break below 0.9550.

Dec-02 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-02T08:21:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday after failed to break below 1.2968, topped at 1.3181 and closed at 1.3124. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above the trend line resistance (white) and 1.3181 area testing 1.3250 – 1.3300 but note that as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in a major bearish outlook. I still prefer a bearish scenario but need a clear break below 1.3055 to see further bearish continuation and potentially end the bullish correction targeting 1.2968 – 1.2920 this week.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday but still unable to move above 1.5650 resistance area so far. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.5650 testing 1.5750. Immediate support at 1.5550. Clear break below that area could potentially end the bullish correction re-testing 1.5500 – 1.5450 support area. Although there are still more rooms for further bullish correction in nearest term, overall we are still in a major bearish outlook and any upside correction is normal unless the bearish channel violated to the upside.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after failed to consistently move below the trend line support and 83.40 support area. This fact keeps the bullish scenario intact but need a clear break above 84.40 to continue the upside pressure testing 85.00/22. Immediate support remains around 83.40. Break below that area could be a threat to the bullish outlook testing 82.87.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. Price slipped above 1.0050 but unable to consistently stay above that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a bullish scenario testing 1.0182 after the break above the triangle. Immediate support at the trend line support (red) and 0.9920. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY whipsawed to the upside yesterday, erased all the bearish momentum on Tuesday and now struggling around 110.30 area. This fact activates my wait and see mode for now. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario but a break above 110.75 could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 111.91. Immediate support at 109.70. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 108.90/33 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 131.59 and closed at 131.32. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 132.00 but overall we are still in a major bearish scenario and any upside momentum now is still considered as counter trend move. However, a break above 132.00 could be a threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 130.84. A movement back below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 129.83 and keep the bearish outlook remains strong.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 0.9697 and closed at 0.9658. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think we are in consolidation phase but still within the context of a strong bearish trend since the fall from all time high at 1.0182. Immediate resistance at 0.9710. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.9778 area. Initial support at 0.9550/30. We need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario testing 0.9450 this week.

Dec-01 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-12-01T05:42:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2968 and closed at 1.2995. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.2920 especially if price make another break below 1.2968. Immediate resistance at 1.3055. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3100 region. There is no significant bullish correction since the break below the bullish channel so any upside rebound is normal but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5500 yesterday, but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.5594 and closed at 1.5570. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bearish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.5650. Break above that area could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.5750 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains to the downside. Initial support at 1.5500. Another move below that area could trigger further weakness for the Cable testing 1.5450 – 1.5400 support area.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, slipped below 83.70 area on broad Yen strength. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below the trend line support and 83.40 targeting 82.87. I personally still prefer a bullish scenario but my wait and see mode is now activated. Immediate resistance at 84.00. Break above that area would keep the bullish scenario remains intact targeting 84.70.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday but whipsawed to the upside and now back above 1.0000 after found support around 0.9920. This fact keeps the bullish scenario intact especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0050 targeting 1.0182. Immediate resistance remains around 0.9920. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850.

EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after break below 110.30 as you can see on my h4 chart below, bottomed at 108.33 and closed at 108.74. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 107.31 especially if price make another strong breakdown below 108.33. Immediate resistance at 109.00. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 109.50 – 110.30 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 129.33 but closed higher at 130.29. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bearish phase and I still prefer a bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 130.84. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 132.00. Initial support at 129.33 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure targeting 128.90 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bearish phase since the fall from all time high at 1.0182. Immediate support at 0.9536 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9450 area. Initial resistance at 0.9650 – 0.9710. Only a clear break above that area could trigger further significant upside recovery but I think the major scenario remains to the downside.

Nov-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-30T05:56:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 1.3063 and closed at 1.3099. This fact opens the door for further bearish scenario targeting my weekly target around 1.2920 region. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3000 especially if price able to stay consistently below 1.3100. Immediate resistance at 1.3150 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3200 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5646 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5527 and closed 1.5547. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.5500 – 1.5450. Immediate resistance at 1.5571 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5650 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 83.81 but closed higher at 84.26. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 84.70. Immediate support remains around 83.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish momentum was paused yesterday and hit 0.9959 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term and my wait and see mode is now activated. I still prefer a bullish scenario but need a clear break above 1.0050 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0182. Immediate support at 0.9920. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday and now struggling around 110.30 support area. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently below 110.30 testing 109.50 – 109.00 area. Immediate resistance at 110.68 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 111.91 and keep us in boring range condition.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant momentum yesterday but so far I think the pressure remains to the downside. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently below 130.84 targeting 129.83. Immediate resistance at 131.36 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area would lead us back to range market between 130.84 – 132.00 but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 0.9566 but closed a little bit higher at 0.9606. Price rebounded higher earlier today in Asian session, hit 0.9659. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I think we are still in strong bearish phase targeting 0.9550. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish scenario testing 0.9450 region. Immediate resistance at 0.9659 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 0.9710.

Nov-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-29T06:17:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.3181 but corrected a little bit higher around 1.3230 at the time I wrote this comment. Price still able to maintain position below the bullish channel indicates potential further bearish pressure. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3100 especially if we have another strong break below 1.3181. Immediate resistance at 1.3290. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3333/50 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.5576 and closed at 1.5588. On h4 chart below we can see price had strong bearish momentum after made two consecutive strong breakdown below 1.5750 and 1.5650 support area suggests a strong bearish phase. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.5500. Immediate resistance at 1.5650. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5700 – 1.5750 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY finally made a clear breakout above the range area, topped at 84.18 and closed at 84.09 on Friday. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 84.70. Immediate support at 83.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF still struggling around 1.0000 area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a potential bullish scenario targeting 1.0182 especially if price able to consistently move above 1.0050. Immediate support at 0.9950/20. Break below that area would lead us back to range market condition and re-activate my wait and see mode.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement on Friday. On h4 chart below we can seen price is now moving in a range area again between 111.91 – 110.30. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 111.91 or long around 110.30 with tight stop loss. We know that this pair has been traded in range condition for the last two months now so taking advantage from this range condition could be a good idea.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday after failed to make a clear break above 132.00 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term but I think we still need a clear break below 130.84 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 129.83. Immediate resistance remains at 132.00. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 133.00 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 0.9611 and hit 0.9584 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9550. Immediate resistance at 0.9681 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9750 but overall we are still in bearish phase.

Nov-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-26T06:44:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday. There are no changes in my short term technical outlook which is remains bearish testing 1.3260 but I will keep paying attention to the long term technical outlook, where a good and strong support is seen around 1.3260 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3450 region. Break above that area would keep the long term bullish outlook intact, but as long as price moves inside the minor bearish channel we are still in a bearish phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5750 yesterday but so far still unable to consistently move below that area as market remains volatile but indecisive. As long as price stays below 1.5850 the nearest bias remains bearish but need a consistent move below 1.5750/30 to continue the bearish pressure targeting 1.5650. On the other hand, a failure to make a clear break below 1.5750/30 and a break above 1.5850 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.5900 – 1.5950 and the upper line of the bearish channel.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped above 83.70 earlier today in Asian session but we have not seen a significant bullish momentum so far. Note that the 83.70 is a key resistance level at this phase and a bullish continuation scenario will need a convincing break above that area targeting 84.70 even higher. Immediate support at 83.40 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.84 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 1.0000 and now struggling around that area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but I think we still in a clear break above 1.0000 to see further bullish momentum targeting 1.0182 region. Immediate support at 0.9920. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850 but only a clear break below 0.9850 could be a threat to my bullish outlook.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 111.91 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 112.80 – 113.00 area. Initial support at 111.00 and the trend line support area (red). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 110.75/30.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On the upside, a clear break above 132.00 could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 133.00 and could be a threat to my bearish medium term bias which started after the violation to the bullish channel. Immediate support at 131.35 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 130.84 but we need a clear break below 130.84 to continue the bearish scenario targeting 129.83 even lower.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday and slipped below 0.9750 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9650. Another move above 0.9750 could lead us back to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9800 and 0.9850 resistance area but I still maintain my bearish scenario at this phase. CCI still in negative territory both in daily and h4 chart so although the market is likely to remains volatile, the overall bias should remain to the downside.

Nov-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-25T07:46:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. I think as long as price stays below 1.3446 the nearest bias remains bearish testing 1.3260 and the lower line of the bullish channel which is the key support area at this phase where some buying interest could be seen around that area. A violation to the bullish channel would be a threat to the long term bullish outlook and could be an early signal of a new long term bearish outlook. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart indicates the bearish pressure is still potential.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but need a clear break below 1.5750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.5650 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5850. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5900 – 1.5950 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase. CCI still in negative territory on h4 chart suggests that the bearish pressure is still potential.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday but still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70 and still need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 83.70 or long around 82.84 with tight stop loss. I personally prefer to stand aside and maintain my wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was volatile yesterday but overall still showed no significant technical movement and still trapped in range area of 1.0000 – 0.9850. I am still in wait and see mode until we have a clear break from the range area. So far price still able to maintain position above the triangle so I am expecting a break to the upside. Aggressive intra-day traders may short around 1.0000 or long around 0.9850 with tight stop loss. Clear break above 1.0000 could trigger further bullish continuation targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9920/00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9850 but only a clear break below 0.9850 could be a threat to the bullish outlook testing 0.9800 – 0.9750.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 110.30 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 111.56 but still able to move below 111.60 so far indicates the bearish bias remains intact. However, pay attention to the inverse head and shoulders formation on h1 chart below which indicates potential bullish reversal especially if able to make a clear and strong break above 111.60 targeting 112.20/80 area. On the downside, further bearish pressure could be triggered on a break below 110.74 testing 110.30 and 109 70/60 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 131.85 after failed to make a clear break below 130.84. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in bearish medium bias but like I said, we need a clear break below 130.84 to continue the bearish pressure testing 129.83. Immediate resistance at 132.00. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 133.00 and change my medium bias to neutral zone

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 0.9852 and closed at 0.9845 but had a strong bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session hit 0.9760 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact keeps my bearish reversal scenario remains intact but need consistent move below 0.9750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9650 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9852 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 0.9881 – 0.9950 resistance area. CCI still in negative territory both in daily and h4 chart so although the market is likely to remains volatile, the overall bias should remain to the downside.

Nov-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-24T05:58:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3359 and closed at 1.3385. Good Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI numbers only gave minor upside pullback and failed to stop the bearish pressure. This fact could trigger further weakness for the single currency. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3333. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3260 and the lower line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below which could be a threat to the long term bullish outlook. However note that at the same time the lower line of the major bullish channel could provide a good support area. Immediate resistance at 1.3446. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3500 – 1.3550 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below, bottomed at 1.5758 and closed at 1.5798. Like I said, a violation to the bullish channel could be an early signal of a new bearish phase in long term outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.5650 especially if price make another strong break below 1.5750. Immediate resistance at 1.5875. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5950 but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday made a Doji on daily chart. This short term volatility which probably triggered by the Korean conflict reflects no significant technical movement and price still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70 and there are no changes in my daily technical outlook. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday after found support around 0.9850, topped at 0.9974 and closed at 0.9965. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.0000 targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9920/00. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and keep us in range market of 1.0000 – 0.9850.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 111.60 and bottomed at 110.74 which suggests potential bearish outlook. However, pay attention to the hammer candle stick formation as you can see on my h4 chart below which could be a signal of a bearish exhaustion and some upside rebound. This fact force me to wait for a clear break below 110.74 to confirm the bearish scenario testing 109.70/60 region. On the upside, another movement back above 111.60 would lead us back to neutral zone testing 112.20/80 resistance area and keep us in range market condition.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact should be considered as bullish failure and potential new bearish phase. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make another strong break below 130.84 targeting 129.83. Immediate resistance at 132.00. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 133.00 and activates my wait and see mode.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 0.9750 but had upside rebound earlier today in Asian session hit 0.9806. The Korean conflict may trigger further volatility both in stock and currency movement in Asian and Australian market but technical bearish reversal scenario remains valid especially if price move back below 0.9750 targeting 0.9650 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9810. Clear break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 0.9881 – 0.9950 resistance area.

Nov-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-23T07:38:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after failed to move consistently above 1.3770 resistance area, bottomed at 1.3576 and hit 1.3544 earlier today in Asian session. This fact keeps the bearish medium outlook intact but would need a clear break below 1.3446 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3333. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3446 especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.3544. Immediate resistance at 1.3630. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3700 – 1.3730 area. On fundamental side, beside the Ireland issues which drive the market sentiment lately, we will have some Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI numbers and US Prelim GDP and existing home sales today as catalyst to move the market.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another upside attempt yesterday, but once again, the upper line of the minor bearish channel (red) rejected further bullish momentum and whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5898 and closed at 1.5940. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5880 and the lower line of the bullish channel, but note that as long as the major bullish channel (white) hold, the major bullish outlook should remains intact. A violation to the major bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish outlook and could be an early signal of a new bearish phase testing 1.5750 – 1.5650 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5950. Consistent move above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6000 – 1.6083.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant technical move yesterday and still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish consolidation yesterday, but still move above the triangle. Price still trapped in range area of 1.0000 - 0.9850 and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. We need a clear break above 1.0000 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0182. On the other hand, break below 0.9850 could diminish the bullish outlook testing 0.9800 – 0.9750. I will stand a side for now and see further development.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 113.24 and closed at 113.29. I will keep stand aside as long as price still trapped in range area of 115.65 – 111.60. While longer time frame shows no clear direction, intra-day traders may get advantage from smaller time frame like hourly and 30 minutes chart. Immediate support at 112.80. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.20/00 region. Initial resistance at 113.50. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 114.20/84 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. We are in a critical technical point here, where a violation to the bullish channel and clear break below 132.50 could be a threat to the bullish outlook and potentially produce an early bearish reversal signal testing 132.00 and 131.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 133.20. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 133.60 – 134.20 area and keep the bullish scenario remains strong.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I will stand aside for now. The bearish reversal scenario remains intact but need a clear break below 0.9750 for further bearish confirmation. Immediate support at 0.9810. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9750 area. Initial resistance at 0.9950. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0000 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook re-testing 1.0182 historical level.

Nov-19 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-19T07:03:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday, topped at 1.3667 and closed at 1.3655. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.3700 – 1.3750 but I think the major bearish scenario remains intact and the current bullish momentum is still considered as a counter trend move. Immediate support at 1.3550. Break below that area could potentially end the current bullish correction testing 1.3500 – 1.3450 area.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6055 and closed at 1.6049. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6100 and the upper line of the minor bearish channel (red). The major scenario remains bullish but as long as price moves inside the minor bearish channel overall we are still in bearish consolidation movement after the fall from 1.6292 on November 05. A violation to the minor bearish channel and consistent move above 1.6100 could potentially end the bearish correction and continue the major bullish scenario testing 1.6292 even higher. Immediate support at 1.5950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5880 and the lower line of the major bullish channel (white) and could be the second threat to the major bullish outlook.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday but still unable to move consistently above 83.70 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but need a consistent move above 83.70 to continue the bullish pressure testing 84.00 – 84.70 area. Immediate support remains around 82.84. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below the minor bullish channel yesterday but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.9997 and closed at 0.9954 in a volatile market. This fact could potentially produced a false breakdown scenario and could continue the upside pressure especially if price make a clear break above 1.0000 targeting 1.0182 area. Immediate support at 0.9850. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9800 – 0.9750.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after made a strong breakout above 113.44 and the minor trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 114.28 – 114.65 but note that we are still in range area where medium bias remains trendless. I will keep stand aside. Immediate support at 113.44. Another move below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 113.00 – 112.80.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday after break above 132.96, topped at 134.20 and closed at 134.06. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 135.03 especially if price make another strong breakout above 134.20. Immediate support at 133.00. break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in major bullish scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued it bullish correction yesterday, topped and closed at 0.9905. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0000 especially if price able to make a clear break above 0.9920. However, note that overall the bearish reversal scenario after the violation to the bullish channel remains valid and the current bullish momentum is still considered as a counter trend move and only a move above 1.0000 could be a threat to the bearish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 0.9810. Break below that area could potentially end the current bullish correction testing 0.9750 even 0.9650 region.

Nov-18 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-18T06:01:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session hit 1.3593. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3650 – 1.3700 resistance area but overall we are still in strong bearish phase. Like I said, any upside pullback is normal and I still prefer a bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.3500. Clear break below that area could end the current bullish correction testing 1.3333 this week.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD bearish pressure was paused yesterday after found support at the lower line of the bullish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bullish scenario remains intact especially if price break above 1.5950 targeting 1.6000 – 1.6080 area. On the downside, key support area remains at the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.5880. Clear break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the major bullish outlook at least testing 1.5750 – 1.5650 which could give an early validation to the bearish reversal scenario.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday. I think this is a normal correction and overall we are still in bullish phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support remains at 82.84. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area. Initial resistance at 83.70 which is also the nearest bullish target. Break above that area could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.00 – 84.70.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday. We haven’t seen significant bearish correction since strong bullish run from November 05 so this bearish pullback is normal and we are still in bullish phase. I think I will stand aside for now. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red) and 0.9900. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9800. Initial resistance at 0.9975. We need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.0000 and 1.0182.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday and still trapped in range area of 115.65 – 111.60 in the last 9 weeks. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term and I think I will keep stand aside for now. Immediate resistance remains at 113.44 and the minor trend line resistance (red). Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 114.28 – 114.65. On the downside, key support level remains at 111.60. Break below that area could lead us to a bearish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 132.96 but further upside pressure was limited and closed lower at 132.31. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase especially if price able to break above 132.96 targeting 133.75 before testing 135.03. On the downside, key support area is seen around 132.00 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Only violation to the bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bearish momentum was paused yesterday after failed to consistently move below 0.9750. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9920 but this fact activates my wait and see mode. The bearish reversal scenario remains valid after the violation of the bullish channel but need a clear break below 0.9750 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9650 even lower. On the upside, clear break above 0.9920 could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.0000.

Nov-16 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-16T06:57:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish bias yesterday but still unable to make a clear break below Friday’s low around 1.3560/70 area. The bias remains bearish in nearest and medium term targeting 1.3500 – 1.3333 this week especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.3560/70 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.3650. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3700 but overall we are still in bearish phase. CCI still maintain position in negative territory on h4 chart suggests that the current bearish momentum is strong enough.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed and closed at 1.6040. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.5950 but note that overall we are still in a major bullish outlook and only a violation to the bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6100. Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum but need a clear break above 1.6170/80 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6270 – 1.6300.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish correction yesterday, topped at 83.25 and closed at 83.16. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 83.70 – 84.00. Immediate support at 82.87. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9870 and closed at 0.9851. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0000 especially if price make another break above 0.9880 and move above the triangle. The upper line of the triangle seems to be an important resistance to be watched closely at this phase. Immediate support at 0.9800 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9730 but as long as price moves inside the major bullish channel we are still in bullish phase.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in both nearest and medium term as price still trapped in range area of 111.60 – 115.65 as you can see on my h4 chart below and we need a break on either side to see clearer direction. I will keep stand aside for now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but overall still maintain its bullish bias targeting 134.50 – 135.03 area. Immediate support at 133.00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.00 but only a violation to the bullish channel could be a threat to the current bullish scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD still maintain its bearish bias yesterday. The movement below the bullish channel is still a threat to the bullish outlook, but there is a triple bottom formation around 0.9810 indicates potential bottom in nearest term after strong bearish pullback since November 08. We need a clear break below 0.9810 to continue the bearish reversal scenario at least targeting 0.9750 – 0.9650 region. Immediate resistance at 0.9919 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0000.

Nov-15 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-15T06:45:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum last week, bottomed at 1.3573 but still unable to consistently move below 1.3700 so far as market remains highly volatile. I think overall we are still in bearish bias but need a consistent move below 1.3700 to continue the downside pressure testing 1.3500 – 1.3333 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.3750. Consistent move above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.3850 – 1.3900.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price moves inside the major bullish channel overall we are still in a major bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6170/80. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6270 – 1.6300 area. Initial support at 1.5950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a threat to the bullish outlook.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, slipped below 81.95 but closed higher at 82.51. This fact keeps the bullish correction scenario which started since the break out above the triangle remains intact testing 82.87. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish recovery testing 83.87. Immediate support at 82.30 followed by 81.95.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish bias on Friday, topped at 0.9812 and closed at 0.9807. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price make another break above 0.9812 targeting 0.9880. Immediate support at 0.9730. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 0.9650 support area. From longer term perspective, as we can see on my h4 chart below, price is moving inside a triangle formation after significant bearish movement. If the current bullish momentum can take the price break above the triangle, we could be in the early phase of a bullish reversal scenario.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY slipped below 111.60 on Friday but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 112.99. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 114.65. However, overall I think we are still in consolidation phase as price moves in range area of 111.60 – 115.65 as you can see on my h4 chart below. I think I will stand aside for now. Immediate support at 112.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 111.60.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 130.96 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 132.93. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 134.50 – 135.03 area. Immediate support at 132.94 (current low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 132.00 but overall I think the bias remains to the upside.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum on Friday, slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could be a threat to the bullish outlook with potential bearish reversal scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9750. Immediate resistance at 0.9900. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but only another move above 1.0000 could keep the bullish outlook intact. This pair has been making new historical highs lately and a strong bearish reversal scenario could be on the way.

Nov-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-11T06:57:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. Price slipped below 1.3700 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.3774. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3900 – 1.3950 area. The 1.3700 area is an important support at this phase so a strong rejection to move consistently below that area could trigger further upside momentum in nearest term but overall I think we are still in a bearish bias. Immediate support at 1.3750. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3700 but we need a clear break below 1.3700 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3500 area.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could end the bearish correction phase especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.6170 targeting 1.6250/80 region. Immediate support at 1.6079. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6000 – 1.5950 but will activate my wait and see mode.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 82.79 but closed lower at 82.22. The bias is neutral in nearest term. After made a strong break out above the triangle overall we are in bullish recovery phase, but another move below 81.95 would lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear both in short and medium term and reactivated my wait and see mode. On the upside 82.87 remains the nearest bullish correction target. Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 83.70 area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9766 but closed lower at 0.9705. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish correction phase. Immediate support remains at 0.9650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a threat to the bullish correction scenario. On the upside, another move above 0.9730 could trigger further upside momentum testing 0.9800.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after unable to reach 111.60 support area. This fact activates my wait and see mode as overall we are still trapped in range market. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 113.75. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 114.65. Immediate support at 113.13 – 112.80 area and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 111.60.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price break above the V-Top formation indicates bearish scenario failure and potential bullish continuation targeting 133.50/75. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 135.03. Immediate support at 132.00. Break below that area could lead us back to neutral zone in nearest term testing 131.00 and reactivated my wait and see mode.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive in the last 24 hours. Overall we are still in bearish correction phase but need a clear break below 1.0000 to continue the bearish correction testing 0.9900 and the lower line of the bullish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term and my wait and see mode is now activated. The major scenario remains bullish but need a clear break above 1.0182 to continue the bullish scenario making new historical high projection around 1.0250 area. On the other hand, a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish outlook and potential bearish reversal scenario.

N0v-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-10T07:21:00.000Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was able to maintain its bearish bias yesterday. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3937 but whipsawed to the downside, slipped below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below, fell below 1.3800 and hit 1.3735 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 1.3700 area before testing 1.3500 this week. We have potential bearish reversal scenario here, but I need a clear break below 1.3700 to have further validation to the bearish reversal outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.3800. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3850 – 1.3900 area but as long as price move below 1.4000 I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. After several weeks of unclear direction and inconsistent movement, I hope we can see a good trending market.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD also had a bearish momentum yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 1.6170, bottomed at 1.5951 and closed at 1.5997. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.5900 even could test the lower line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.6079. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel (blue) we are still in bearish correction phase and only a violation to the bearish channel could end the bearish correction testing 1.6170 – 1.6250 area.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY made a false break down below the triangle yesterday before reverse its direction and made a strong break out above the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact indicates a potential bullish scenario in nearest term but need a clear break above 81.95 to continue the upside recovery testing 82.87. Immediate support at 81.20. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear and keep us in boring market and range area of 81.95 – 80.24.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9586 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 0.9684. This fact keeps the bullish correction scenario intact targeting 0.9730 – 0.9800 resistance area. Immediate support remains around 0.9650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the lower line of the minor bullish channel but only a violation the bullish channel could end this bullish correction phase testing 0.9550 and 0.9460 area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term with expected range at 113.13 – 111.60. On h4 chart below we have a V-Top formation and from another point of view also look like a “head and shoulders” formation which is a bearish pattern especially if price able to make a clear break below 111.60 targeting 110.00. On the other hand, break above 113.13 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 113.75 and activate my wait and see mode but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase as my technical study show more bearish bias now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Similar to the EURJPY, as you can see on my h4 chart below, this pair forms a V-Top formation which also can be seen as a “head and shoulders” formation from another point of view, suggests more bearish bias at this phase especially if price made a clear break below 129.82 testing 129.00 even lower as bearish reversal scenario would be confirmed. On the other hand, a break above 131.00 could lead us to neutral zone testing 132.00 and activate my wait and see mode.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile yesterday but overall still able to maintain its bearish correction bias. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish flag scenario has failed which could set more bearish correction scenario especially if price make a clear break below 1.0000 testing 0.9920/00. As long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in a major bullish outlook, but need a clear break above 1.0182 to continue the bullish scenario making new historical highs projection around 1.0250 area. On the other hand, a break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish outlook and potential bearish reversal scenario.

Nov-09 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-09T10:47:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3858 and closed at 1.3863 after violated the bullish channel and consistently move below 1.4000. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3800 and the trend line support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.3700 even 1.3500 area this week. Immediate resistance at 1.3896 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3950 – 1.4000 but overall we are still in bearish bias at this phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD also had a bearish momentum yesterday and attempted to push lower earlier today in Asian session, slipped below 1.6079 but rebounded to the upside, traded around 1.6130 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I think we are still in bearish correction phase especially if price able to consistently move below 1.6079 targeting 1.6000 area. Immediate resistance at 1.6170. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.6250/80 region and could end the bearish correction phase.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. Overall we are still in consolidation phase without clear direction and consistent move which is also indicated by triangle formation as you can see on my h4 below. We need a clear break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Break above the triangle could trigger further upside correction testing 81.95 while a break below the triangle could trigger further bearish continuation re-testing 80.24 – 79.70 area. I think I will stand aside for now.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 0.9680 and closed at 0.9674. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9730 but overall I think we are still in bearish phase. Immediate support at 0.9650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9550.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 112.37 and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 112.04. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 111.60 and 110.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 112.66 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 113.75 but I think we are in a bearish phase now and I prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 130.53 and hit 130.29 earlier today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we have a V-Top formation indicates potential bearish reversal scenario and a serious threat to the bullish outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 129.82 – 129.00. Immediate resistance at 131.00. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 132.00 and keep the bullish outlook intact.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0078 and closed at 1.0100. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0000 area especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.0084. However, the major scenario remains bullish. We have a “flag” bullish formation as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break above the formation could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.0250 area.

Nov-08 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-08T05:51:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to maintain its bullish momentum on Friday, closed lower at 1.4031 after a better than expected US NFP number. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the bullish channel and below 1.4000 earlier today in Asian session indicates potential threat to the bullish outlook. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.3900 before testing 1.3850 – 1.3800 support area. Overall I think we are still in consolidation phase where neither of bullish nor bearish can maintain momentum so far. On the upside, a movement above 1.4085 (current high) could trigger further bullish momentum but I think we need another move above 1.4158 if we want to see further upside pressure testing 1.4400 this week.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD also corrected lower on Friday after good NFP number and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the minor bullish channel indicates potential pause to the strong bullish momentum, but as long as price moves inside the major bullish channel overall the major scenario remains to the upside. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.6079 – 1.6000 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.6213 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6280 region and keep the bullish scenario remains strong.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY still maintain its bullish correction bias so far, traded around 81.23 at the time I wrote this comment. The major scenario remains bearish but we may see a bearish exhaustion at this phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 81.95. Break above that area could trigger further upside recovery testing 82.87. Immediate support at 80.85. Break below that area could diminish the bullish correction bias re-testing 80.24 area and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum on Friday, made a convincing and strong break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 below indicates strong bearish momentum. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 0.9550 testing 0.9460. Immediate resistance at 0.9650. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9730.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower on Friday, bottomed at 113.89 and closed at 114.01. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 113.75. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 112.80 before testing 111.60. On the upside, we need a consistent move above 114.65 to continue the bullish scenario testing 115.65.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I think we are still in bullish phase after the violation to the bearish channel. Immediate support at 131.00. Clear break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear testing 129.82. On the upside we need a clear break above 132.00 to continue the bullish scenario testing 133.00 even higher.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive on Friday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in a strong bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.0084. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0000 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in strong bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.0165 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum, probably make other new historical highs projection around 1.0200 – 1.0250.

Nov-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-04T09:15:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4151 and closed at 1.4125. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.4158. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.4220/50 before targeting 1.4375 – 1.4400 region. Immediate support at 1.4060. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.4000 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish bias yesterday, topped at 1.6170 but closed lower at 1.6105. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.6250 area. Immediate support at 1.6079 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below that area and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.6000 but overall the major scenario remains to the upside.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY still trapped inside a range area without a clear direction and consistent momentum so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Expected range at 81.95 – 80.24, but still with more downside bias. 81.95 level could be a good place for a short position. Good downside target (80.24 – 79.70) with limited upside risk, stop above 81.95.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday. As you can see on my h4 below price slipped below the bullish channel indicates a serious threat to the bullish outlook testing 0.9650 – 0.9600 support area. Immediate resistance at 0.9800. Break above that area would keep the bullish scenario intact testing 0.9877 – 0.9928 area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 114.89 and closed at 114.51. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 115.65. Immediate support at 113.75. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but I think we are in a new bullish phase here.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, made a strong break out above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates bearish failure and a potential new bullish outlook targeting 132.00 in nearest term. Immediate support at 129.82. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction is unclear.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile yesterday but overall still maintain its bullish bias, made a new historical high at 1.0064. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.0100 – 1.0150. Immediate support at 1.0000. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9917 area but only a violation to the bullish channel could be a threat to the current bullish outlook and probably make a strong bearish pullback scenario.

Nov-03 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-03T06:10:00.002Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4057 and closed at 1.4032. On h4 chart below we can see that the major bearish channel has been violated to the upside indicates a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish continuation re-testing 1.4158 area. However we haven’t seen consistent momentum so far so the situation remains tricky. Immediate support at the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.3950 area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.3880 and keep direction/bias remains unclear.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but remains indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major outlook remains to the upside with 1.6105 as the nearest resistance line to be tested. Above that, 1.6250 could be seen this week. Immediate support at 1.6000 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.5950 – 1.5900 but the main scenario remains to the upside and I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. In fact, I think this pair has been trendless in the last two weeks. However the overall bias remains bearish testing 79.70 in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 80.85 followed by 81.95. The major outlook remains bearish but no significant bearish momentum so far.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower significantly yesterday, bottomed at 0.9757 and closed at 0.9793. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9730 and the lower line of the bullish channel but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 0.9877. Break above that area could continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0000.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, violated the bearish channel to the upside as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates a serious threat to the bearish scenario and potential bullish outlook testing 113.75 and 114.65 area. Immediate support at 112.25. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 111.60 and keep the bearish scenario intact.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but price is struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates critical phase. A violation to the upside of the bearish channel could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario and a beginning of a bullish phase testing 131.00. Immediate support at 128.80. Break below that area would keep the bearish scenario intact testing 127.62.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a new historical high yesterday, topped at 1.0023 and closed at 0.9986. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall remains strongly bullish especially if break above 1.0023 today, probably would make new historical highs between 1.0050 – 1.0100. Immediate support at 0.9917. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.9850 and the lower line of the bullish channel.

Nov-02 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-11-03T03:10:00.001Z

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3863 but closed higher at 1.3908 after found support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel as you can see on my h1 chart below. This fact indicates that we are still in intra-day bullish outlook testing the upper line of the major bearish channel but medium term bias remains neutral. Immediate support at 1.3880. Break below that area and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.3800. Initial resistance at 1.4000. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.4079 – 1.4158.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in a major bullish scenario re-testing 1.6105. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.6230/50 area. Immediate support at 1.6000. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.5900 but any downside correction is normal and as long as price moves inside the major bullish channel the major scenario remains to the upside.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 81.41 but closed lower at 80.57. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in a strong bearish outlook at least testing 79.70/50 area. No significant new technical moves so far and the movement remains boring. Immediate resistance at 80.85 followed by 81.41. Break above 81.41 could trigger further upside momentum re-testing 81.95 but only a clear break above 81.95 could be a threat to the current bearish outlook.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9970 but closed lower at 0.9918 and keep moving lower around 0.9907 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9877 and 0.9800 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact testing 1.0000 – 1.0100 area and any downside correction is normal.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY slipped above the bearish channel yesterday, but so far still able to move inside the bearish channel indicates the major bearish scenario remains intact. I think we could still see further upside attempts re-testing the upper line of the bearish channel and 112.75 resistance area but only a clear break above the bearish channel could be a threat to the bearish scenario testing 113.75 and 114.65 region. On the downside, 111.60 remains an intermediate support level. Break below that area could continue the bearish pressure testing 110.00.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY still maintain its upside pressure so far testing the upper line of the bearish channel. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 130.00 and consistently move above the bearish channel targeting 131.00 area and could be an early phase of a new bullish scenario. Immediate support at 128.87 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area would keep the major bearish scenario intact testing 128.00 – 127.62 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian market, hit 0.9992 level. The bias is bullish in nearest term, but note that we may have an important resistance around 1.0000. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum, making new historical highs probably around 1.0050 – 1.0100 region. Immediate support at 0.9917. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9850/30 but as long as price able to move inside the major bullish channel we are still in a major bullish scenario.

Oct-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-29T08:04:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3950 and closed at 1.3943 but traded lower around 1.3890 at the time I wrote this comment. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a minor bullish channel but the bullish channel is now being tested to the downside. We know that price is still consolidating without clear direction in the last three weeks with inconsistent momentum. A break below the minor bullish channel and a consistent move back below 1.3890 could trigger further bearish movement testing1.3800. On the upside, we need a clear break above 1.3950 to continue the bullish momentum testing 1.4028 and the upper line of the major bearish channel.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5977 and closed at 1.5961. The bias is bullish in nearest term but I think we need a clear break above 1.6000 area to continue the bullish momentum re-testing 1.6105. Immediate support at 1.5900. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.5800 support area. Overall we are still in a bullish major scenario as price is still moving inside the major bullish channel

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 80.86 and hit 80.53 at the time I wrote this comment after failed to make a clear break above 81.95 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if break below 80.40 testing 80.00 and 79.70 area. On the upside, another move above 81.07 (current high) could lead us back to neutral zone and range condition with 81.95 as key resistance area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday, found support at 0.9800 area and traded higher around 0.9863 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in bullish phase especially if price able to make another break above 0.9877 targeting 0.9928 and 1.0000. On the downside, clear break below 0.9800 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9730 and the lower line of the bullish channel but as long as price moves in the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum today, hit 111.89 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 111.60. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 110.65 – 110.00. Immediate resistance at 112.97 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing the upper line of the bearish channel but only a violation to the bearish channel could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 113.75 and 114.65.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish movement today, slipped below the minor bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates potential bearish pressure testing 127.62 before testing 126.43. Immediate resistance at 129.29 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 129.82 and the upper line of the bearish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD is in critical phase now, a consolidation to find a clear direction. On h4 chart below we can see price still struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel. Immediate support at 0.9700. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9650/00 area and could be a threat to the bullish outlook as a bearish reversal scenario could be produced. On the upside, a clear break above 0.9793 could keep the bullish scenario intact testing 0.9917 – 1.0000 key resistance area.

Oct-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-28T07:17:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3733 but closed higher at 1.3794 and traded around 1.3810 earlier today in Asian session at the time I wrote this comment. Overall the bearish bias remains intact but no convincing and consistent bearish momentum so far. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3880/90 area. I still prefer a bearish scenario, but a break above 1.3880/90 could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.3980 – 1.4000. On the downside, immediate support at 1.3778 (current low). Break below that area could continue the bearish pressure testing 1.3700 before targeting 1.3600.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was unable to maintain its bullish momentum yesterday after good UK GDP data push the pair peaked at 1.5895 on Tuesday. Price violated the minor bullish channel to the downside, bottomed at 1.5729 but closed higher at 1.5789. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.5800. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.5900 area before testing 1.6000. Initial support at 1.5700 – 1.5650 and the lower line of the major bullish channel. Only a violation to the major bullish channel could be a threat to the major bullish scenario as bearish reversal scenario could be produced.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, but still unable to make a clear break above 81.95 so far, traded around 81.62 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in consolidation phase. We need a clear break above 81.95 to continue the bullish momentum testing 82.87. Immediate support at 81.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.85/40 area.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9928 but closed lower at 0.9892. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase targeting 1.0000. Immediate support at 0.9877. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9800 – 0.9730 support area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains bearish and only a violation to the bearish channel could be a threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 113.27 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 113.75 – 114.65 area. Initial support at 112.21. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 111.60 and 110.00 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we are still in bullish correction phase after good UK GDP on Tuesday testing 129.82 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel (blue channel) and 128.25 area. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 127.62 and 126.43 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped below the bullish channel yesterday, bottomed at 0.9651 but closed higher at 0.9738 and now struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bullish scenario is in a serious threat here, but if price go back inside the bullish channel and consistently above 0.9775 we could have further upside momentum as yesterday’s strong bearish pressure could be just a temporary market reaction after bad CPI number and could produce a false breakdown scenario re-testing 1.0000. Immediate support at 0.9700. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9600 and may give us the validation of technical bearish reversal scenario.

Oct-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-27T05:12:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 1.3970, bottomed at 1.3825 and closed at 1.3845. This fact keeps the bearish bias since the fall from 1.4158 intact and the bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3700. I hope we will start to see consistent momentum and clearer direction from now. Break below 1.3700 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.3600 – 1.3500 region. Immediate resistance at 1.3878 (current high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3980 – 1.4000 area and keep us in unclear direction and inconsistent momentum condition.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5895 and closed at 1.5840 after a better than expected UK GDP number. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel indicates we could be in another bullish phase but the lower line of the minor bullish channel is now being tested to the downside. A break below the minor bullish channel and movement below 1.5800 could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing the lower line of the major bullish channel and 1.5700 support area. I think we need a clear break above 1.5895 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.6000.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 81.64 and closed at 81.40. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 81.95. Break above that area could trigger further upside recovery testing 82.87. Immediate support at 81.36 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.85 – 80.40 and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9881 and closed at 0.9845. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price make another break above 0.9881 targeting 1.0000. Immediate support at 0.9800 – 0.9750. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing the lower line of the bullish channel but as long as price move inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 113.27 but closed lower at 112.71. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the bearish channel targeting 111.60 and 110.00 especially if able to move below 112.50 support area and only a violation to the bearish channel could threat the current bearish outlook testing 114.65 and 115.65.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish correction yesterday after a better than expected UK GDP number. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 129.82 and the upper line of the bearish channel but as long as price move inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains bearish and any upside correction should be normal now. Immediate support at 128.91 (current low). Break below that area oould trigger further bearish pressure testing 127.62 area and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session after a bad CPI number. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below the bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish scenario testing 0.9600. Immediate resistance at 0.9862 (current high). We need a break above that area to keep the bullish scenario remains intact and strong.

Oct-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-26T07:10:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made another inconsistent movement yesterday. Price topped at 1.4079 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3907 and closed at 1.3922. As you can see on my h4 chart below, price is now back inside the bearish channel after slipped above it. Overall the direction remains unclear and price is moving in 1.4158 – 1.3700 range area. While longer time frames show unclear direction, intra-day traders may benefit from shorter time frame like 30 minute – hourly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.3970. Break above that area could trigger further short term upside pressure testing 1.4028/50 area. Immediate support at 1.3900. Break below that area could trigger further short term bearish pressure testing 1.3850 – 1.3800.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5771 but closed lower at 1.5708. This fact indicates that although the major bullish scenario remains intact as price still move inside the major bullish channel, the downside pressure is not over yet as price still making lower highs since the fall from 1.6105 and still threatening the major bullish outlook especially if this downside pressure able to push price below the bullish channel and move consistently below 1.5650 testing at least 1.5600 even lower. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5650 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.5750/60 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5800 – 1.5850.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY break below 80.85 yesterday, bottomed at 80.40 and now struggling around 80.85 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 80.00. Another move back above 80.85 could lead us to neutral zone and boring range market again but the major scenario remains bearish and I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Initial resistance remains at 81.95 and only a clear break above that area could trigger further upside recovery.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9662 but closed higher at 0.9733 in a volatile but unclear movement. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase. Immediate support at 0.9650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a threat to the bullish phase. Initial resistance at 0.9750. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9803 and 0.9877 area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after price failed to break above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bearish scenario intact. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 111.60. Immediate resistance at the upper line of the bearish channel and 113.75. Break above that area and violation to the bearish channel could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 114.65 and 115.65 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish bias yesterday, bottomed at 126.43 and closed at 126.92 and traded around 127.07 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move below 126.72 targeting 125.28. Immediate resistance at 127.62 area and the trend line resistance (blue). Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 128.40/90 area but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains to the downside.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9973 but closed significantly lower at 0.9894. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major scenario remains strongly bullish re-testing 1.0000 historical high. Immediate support at 0.9870 followed by 0.9837 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9775 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains to the upside.

Oct-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-25T08:37:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, slipped above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could be a threat to the bearish scenario especially if price able to consistently move above the bullish channel testing 1.4049 and 1.4158 in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3953 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.3900 and 1.3800 and lead us back to difficult situation similar to what happened in the last two weeks where direction is unclear and momentum is not consistent.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD bounced higher earlier today in Asian session after found support at the lower line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario intact especially if price able to make a clear break above 1.5750 and 23% Fibo retracement of 1.6105 – 1.5649 testing 1.5800 – 1.5850. On the downside, only a clear break below the major bullish channel and 1.5650 support area could be a threat to the major bullish scenario.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY still trapped in range area of 81.95 – 80.85 since October 13, indicating consolidation phase but the major scenario remains bearish. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break below 80.85 could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 80.00 and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong while break above 81.95 could trigger further bullish correction testing 82.87. Aggressive traders may long around 80.85 or short around 81.95 with tight stop loss.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower earlier today in Asian session, struggling around 0.9730 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if break below 0.9730 testing 0.9650 but as long as price move inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 0.9830 (Friday’s high). Break below that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 0.9877.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, testing the upper line of the bearish channel after bounced from 111.60 support area as you can see on my h4 chart below. A break above the bearish channel could be a threat to the bearish scenario targeting 114.65 even 115.65. On the downside, immediate support at 113.30/40. Break below that area should keep the major bearish scenario intact testing 112.80/50 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 127.07 but closed higher at 127.55 in a narrow market. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact testing 126.72 but CCI in neutral area on h4 chart suggests potential bearish exhaustion for now. Immediate resistance at 128.20 and the trend line resistance area (blue). Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 128.90 – 129.20 resistance area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session, slipped above 0.9917 resistance area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further bullish continuation testing 1.0000 even make a new historical highs in near future. Immediate support at 0.9837 (current low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear testing 0.9775 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains bullish.

Oct-15 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-15T09:13:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4121 but further bullish pressure was rejected, closed lower at 1.4024. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bullish. I have made adjustment to my bullish channel as a reaction to the newest development. Immediate support at 1.3960. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.3910/00 support area but as long as price move inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario. Only a clear move below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook and may lead us to consolidation phase again, re-testing 1.3800 support area. Initial resistance at 1.4080. Clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.4120 and 1.4170/90 region.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6066 but closed lower at 1.5985 after found resistance at the upper line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price still move inside a minor bullish channel (blue) indicates the overall intra-day bullish bias remains intact but the fact that so far price still unable to move consistently above 1.6000 area diminish the strength of the bullish pressure. Immediate support at 1.5970. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the minor bullish channel and 1.5900 support area. Initial resistance at 1.6066 (yesterday’s high) where some historical resistances also seen around that level. Clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.6100 and 1.6150.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 80.85 but closed higher at 81.58. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bearish scenario targeting 80.60 and 80.00 especially if price able to make another clear break below 81.36. Immediate resistance at 81.95 and the minor trend line resistance. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 82.87 but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9461 but closed significantly higher at 0.9554. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. We are now entering a consolidation phase where a consistent move above 0.9550 could trigger further bullish correction testing t0.9640 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Immediate support at 1.9500. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 0.9450 before targeting 0.9350 area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price trapped in range area of 113.75 – 114.75. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Break above 114.75 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 115.65 while a break below 113.75 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.84.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY slipped below 129.82, but whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 130.42. This fact keeps the bullish correction scenario intact testing 131.75 especially if price able to make a breakout above 131.00 . The main scenario remains to the downside, but need a clear break below 129.82 to continue the bearish scenario testing 128.99 and 128.54.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9993 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 0.9895. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are entering consolidation phase and my wait and see mode is activated but the major scenario remains bullish. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the trend line support. Break below that trend line could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9775. On the upside, we need a break above 0.9993 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0050.

Oct-14 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-14T08:11:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after bounced from 1.3800 support area on Tuesday and made a significant breakout above 1.4050 earlier today in Asian session as you can see on my h4 chart below. The candle is not complete yet at the time I wrote this comment, but if we have a convincing bullish h4 candle on this breakout, bullish continuation scenario will be confirmed targeting 1.4120 in nearest term before testing 1.4170/90 and 1.4400 area. On the downside, immediate support at 1.4028/00. A pullback below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains bullish.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday and made a significant breakout above the minor bearish channel earlier today in Asian session as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates potential bullish continuation testing 1.6000/16. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6085 – 1.6100. Immediate support at 1.5937 (yesterday’s high). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would be unclear but the major scenario remains bullish.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but had a strong bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session, break below 81.36 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The h4 candle is not complete yet at the time I wrote this comment, but if the candle able to close convincingly below 81.36, the hammer bullish scenario is fail and on the other hand could trigger further bearish continuation targeting 80.60 and 80.00 area. Immediate resistance at 81.72 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains strongly bearish.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below 0.9550 earlier today in Asian session, indicates potential bearish continuation testing 0.9450 before targeting 0.9350 especially if the h4 candle able to close convincingly below 0.9550. Any movement back above 0.9550 could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains strongly bearish and long position is not recommended.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 114.68 but closed lower at 114.25. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as you can see on my h4 chart below we have an inverse head and shoulders formation, which is a bullish pattern especially if price make a clear break above the neckline located at 114.75 targeting 115.65 before testing 117.00. Immediate support at 113.75. Break below that area will cancel the inverse head and shoulders bullish scenario and could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.84.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 130.30 and closed at 130.17 and now struggling around 129.82. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Like I said yesterday, technically we still have rooms for any bullish correction at this phase but the major scenario remains bearish. Immediate resistance at 130.69. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 131.75 area. On the downside, consistent move below 129.82 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 128.99.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a significant break above 0.9917 earlier today in Asian session, made a new historical high at 0.9981, indicates potential further bullish continuation testing 1.0050, a new historical high projection. The bias is bullish in nearest term and bullish continuation scenario is now confirmed. Immediate support at 0.9917. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains bullish.

Oct-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-12T07:17:00.003+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected significantly lower yesterday, slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact could be a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook. Short trades could be profitable in nearest term but I think we need to have a little bit more patient here and not rush judging a bearish reversal although reversal is potential now. The Euro enjoys strong bullish momentum since mid-September, so any downside correction is normal. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 1.3850 targeting 1.3800 and 1.3750 area. CCI in negative territory on h4 chart and need to stay in that area if we want to see a convincing bearish reversal scenario. On the upside, immediate resistance at 1.3950. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact and false breakdown scenario could be produced re-testing 1.4028/50 area.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD also corrected lower yesterday, slipped below the minor bullish channel, but now still struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a consistent move below the minor bullish channel and 1.5860 to continue the bearish correction testing 1.5750 and 1.5650. Another strong move which lead price back inside the channel could trigger another false breakdown scenario re-testing 1.6000 even higher.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected higher yesterday. The hammer candle stick formation gives an upside correction opportunity testing 82.87, but the major scenario remains bearish, especially if price break below 81.36 testing 80.60 and 80.80. Break above 82.87 could trigger further bullish correction, even a new beginning of a bullish reversal phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bullish correction yesterday, but still move below the descending triangle. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. We are still in consolidation phase after strong bearish momentum. The major scenario remains bearish but price keeps making higher lows as you can see on my h4 chart below. I think I will stand aside for now and wait for further development. A movement back above the triangle could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.9778. On the downside, we still need a clear break below 0.9550 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9450 and 0.9350.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday, but still able to move below the bullish channel indicating potential further bearish scenario especially if price make a clear break below 113.75 targeting 112.95 and 112.30. Immediate resistance at 114.73 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would be unclear and technical outlook will be a mess.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. On daily chart we have three Doji in three consecutive days indicating unclear direction so far but as long as price move inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish phase especially if price able to make a clear break below 129.82 targeting 128.54. Immediate resistance remains 131.75 followed by 132.55.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after unable to make a break above 0.9917. The major scenario remains bullish, but like I said yesterday, we can have a double top bearish scenario from here, testing 0.9775 and 0.9708 even 0.9600 and the lower line of the bullish channel. On the upside, we still need a clear break above 0.9917 to continue the bullish scenario.

Oct-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-11T08:02:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday after US NFP release. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in consolidation phase after strong bullish move. We need another strong break above 1.4028/50 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4170/90 before targeting 1.4400 this week. On the downside, only a clear break below the bullish channel and 1.3850/00 support area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, slipped below the minor bullish channel, bottomed at 1.5823 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5960. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario intact, but need consistent move above 1.6000 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6069 and 1.6150 region. On the downside, the lower line of the minor bullish channel remains a key support and need a consistent move below the channel to diminish the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.5750 and 1.5650.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 81.36 but closed higher at 81.81. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within major bearish scenario. On h4 chart below we have a hammer candle stick formation indicates potential upside pullback testing 82.87. On the downside, we need a break below 81.36 to continue the bearish pressure testing 80.60 and 80.00 region.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant technical move on Friday. So far price still move below the descending triangle indicates the bearish scenario remains strong but we are still in consolidation phase and need a clear break below 0.9550 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9450 and 0.9350. On the upside, a move back inside the triangle could lead us to neutral zone testing 0.9778 and the upper line of the bearish channel.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact activates my wait and see mode but could open the door for further bearish pressure especially if break below 113.75 targeting 112.95. On the upside, we need a move above 115.65 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 117.00. We have a broad Yen strength lately, diminishing technical bullishness. I will stay away for now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 129.82 but closed significantly higher at 130.54 in a volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish consolidation phase. Immediate support at 129.82 (Friday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 128.54. Initial resistance at 131.75 followed by 132.55.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in strong bullish scenario but need a clear break above 0.9917 to continue the bullish pressure targeting a new historical high around 1.0050 region. Note that a failure to move above 0.9917 could set up a double top bearish scenario, especially if break below 0.9775, testing 0.9708 and 0.9600 area.

Oct-08 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-08T09:27:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4028 but whipsawed strongly to the downside, bottomed at 1.3856 and closed at 1.3924 after Trichet said that he support a strong Dollar. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as you can see on my h4 chart below the lower line of the bullish channel provided a good technical support area so far keep the major strong bullish scenario intact and only a violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook and may trigger a bearish reversal scenario at least testing 1.3750. On the upside, 1.4050 remains the nearest bullish target before testing 1.4400. Fundamental focus today will be on US NFP.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD hit 1.6016 yesterday, but whipsawed strongly to the downside, bottomed at 1.5826 and closed at 1.5876. Technically, a strong pullback after hit a psychological resistance is not a surprise, but we all know that the bearish pullback was triggered by Trichet comment that he support a strong Dollar, created broad Dollar strength. The bias is bearish in nearest term, but as you can see on h4 chart below the lower line of the minor bullish channel did a good job so far preventing further bearish attack and keep the current strong bullish scenario intact. However note that a break below the minor bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5750 area. On the upside, another bullish move above 1.5950 could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.6016 and 1.6069. Fundamental focus today will be on US NFP.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after break below 82.87, bottomed at 82.10 and closed at 82.36. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 81.75. Immediate resistance at 82.87. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone but overall the rounding top bearish scenario should remains intact. Also note that we still have probability of another intervention if the Yen appreciation continues.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9554 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.9700 after Trichet comment that he support a strong Dollar created broad Dollar strength. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major bearish scenario remains intact. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the descending triangle. Break above the triangle and 0.9700 could trigger further upside correction testing the upper line of the bearish channel and 0.9778 resistance area. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.9550 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9450 and 0.9350.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY slipped below the bullish channel yesterday, but so far still unable to consistently move below the bullish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are at critical technical phase where a clear break below the bullish channel could be a beginning of a bearish reversal scenario at least testing 113.75. On the upside, we need a break above 115.30 to keep the bullish scenario remains strong targeting 117.00.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday and now seems comfortable move below 131.00. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 130.10. Another move above 131.00 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 131.80 even 132.55 but as long as price move inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish consolidation phase. The falling wedge bullish scenario, although remains intact, start to show potential failure.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday after break above 0.9849, topped at 0.9917 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 0.9816 after Trichet comment that he support a strong Dollar created broad Dollar strength. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major strong bullish outlook remains intact but need another move above 0.9849 to continue the bullish momentum targeting 0.9925 and 0.9949. Immediate support at 0.9749. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9600 area but as long as price move inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains bullish.

Oct-07 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-07T07:12:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD still able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. After attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.3798, price whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.3947 and closed at 1.3915. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4050 especially if break above 1.3947 today but looks like we may see volatility in the market again. Immediate support remains around 1.3800 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook and activate my wait and see mode.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD failed to maintain its bullish bias yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase targeting 1.6000. I have made adjustment to the minor bullish channel as reaction to the newest price action. Immediate support at 1.5800 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5750 even lower but I am not in the mood of having short position while broad Dollar weakness is still out there. I still think that EUR/USD is a better pair to be traded than GBP/USD.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped below 82.87 yesterday but so far still unable to move consistently below that area. The rounding top bearish scenario should remain strong but need a consistent move below 82.87 to continue further bearish pressure targeting 82.20 and 81.75. On the upside immediate resistance remains at 84.00. Break above that could trigger further bullish correction but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9598 and closed at 0.9623. The bias remains bearish targeting 0.9585 and 0.9550 in nearest term as I see no serious threat to the descending triangle bearish scenario so far. Immediate resistance at 0.9683 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 0.9730 but overall we are still in bearish phase and long position is not recommended.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 114.68 but still maintain its bullish bias, closed higher at 115.45. On h4 chart below we can see so far price still comfortable moving inside the bullish channel indicating strong bullish outlook remains intact. The bias remains bullish targeting 117.00. Immediate support around 114.60. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook and activate my wait and see mode.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 131.38 and closed at 131.62. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move below 131.00 targeting 130.10. However, actually overall price still consolidating, trapped between 131.00 (61.8% Fibo) – 132.55 (38.2% Fibo). On the upside, immediate resistance remains around 132.55. We need a clear break above that area to keep the falling wedge bullish scenario intact. I will keep stand aside for now. For me EUR/JPY is a better pair to be traded than GBP/JPY.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continues the bullish momentum, hit 0.9845 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9925 and 0.9949 especially if price able to make another strong breakout above 0.9849. From long term perspective, as you can see on my monthly chart below, where previous historical highs since 1996 can be seen, price is now testing the historical high at 0.9849. If you are a long term currency speculator, you have a good reason to short the pair now with proper money management. But if you are an intra-day trader, you should trade what you see now where bullish momentum still strong. Note that broad dollar weakness is still out there. EUR/USD and GBP/USD still have many room for further bullish momentum and if they do keep moving higher, AUD/USD could be dragged higher too, making new historical highs. Immediate support at 0.9790 and 0.9756.

Oct-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-06T07:23:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD regained its bullish momentum yesterday after rejected to move consistently below the bullish channel, whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.3858 and closed at 1.3853. This fact keeps the strong bullish outlook intact targeting 1.3900 before testing my weekly target around 1.4050 area. Immediate support at 1.3800. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.3700 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and short position is not recommended.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD slipped below the minor bullish channel yesterday, but whipsawed strongly to the upside, topped at 1.5929 and closed at 1.5910. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.6000. Immediate support at 1.5845 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below the minor bullish channel could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.5750, but learning from yesterday’s experience, in a major strong bullish outlook a false breakdown to any support area often happen and short position is not recommended.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY still trapped in range area of 84.00 – 82.87 yesterday but this time with more downside bias. The major scenario remains bearish but we need a break below 82.87 to continue the bearish pressure testing 82.20 and 81.75 region. On the upside break above 84.00 could trigger further bullish correction but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9643 after violated the descending triangle to the downside as you can see on my h4 below. This fact confirms further bearish scenario targeting 0.9585 and 0.9550. Immediate resistance at 0.9730. Another upside pullback above that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would be unclear testing 0.9843 but overall we are still in strong bearish phase and long position is not recommended.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY regained its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 115.34 after failed to break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario intact targeting 115.48 and 117.00 area. Immediate support at 114.30 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Only a clear break below the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. Price slipped above 132.55 but still unable to stay above that level so far. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we are still in consolidation phase, but looks like the upside pressure start to regain its bullish momentum after found support at 131.00 (61.8% Fibo). We need a consistent move above 132.55 to keep the falling wedge bullish scenario intact testing 133.55 and 135.03. On the downside, only a clear break below 131.00 could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 0.9600 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.9725. This fact keeps the strong bullish outlook intact targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849 this week especially if price able to make a clear breakout above 0.9728/49 region. Immediate support at 0.9670 followed by 0.9600.

Oct-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-05T07:42:00.002+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD has a significant bearish correction yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the bullish channel indicates a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook. I think we are entering a tricky phase here. I still maintain my bullish outlook, but will stop buying the Euro for now until technically sure that the bullish scenario remains intact. Although it’s still too early for bearish reversal scenario, note that fast bullish run may followed by fast bearish pullback in reversal scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.3700. Consistent move above that area should keep the strong bullish outlook intact testing weekly target around 1.4050. On the other hand, a break below 1.3600 could trigger not only further bearish pressure in nearest term but potential bearish reversal scenario targeting 1.3500 even lower as the bullish trend could end. No matter what we believe where direction should be, nobody knows the future and execute our stop losses is a must.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. We still have no clear direction so do not rush jump into the market. On h4 chart below price is moving inside a minor bullish channel indicates bullish scenario remains intact testing weekly target around 1.6000, but the lower line of the channel is now being tested. Break below the minor bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5750 and 1.5650 area before testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white).

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant technical move yesterday so there are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral but still within rounding top bearish scenario testing 82.87. Expected range between 84.00 – 82.87. Break above 84.00 could trigger further bullish correction but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish pressure yesterday but so far still struggling around 0.9730 area. On h4 chart below we have descending triangle formation which is a bearish pattern, but need a break below the triangle to confirm the bearish continuation. Note that we have a strong support around 0.9730/00 area and need a consistent and convincing move below that area to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9647. On the upside, break above 0.9778 could cancel the descending triangle bearish scenario and could trigger further bullish momentum, an upside correction testing 0.9843.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower significantly yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel indicates critical technical point. Break below the bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure testing 113.35. Break below 113.35 could be a beginning of a bearish reversal scenario testing at least 111.60. Immediate resistance at 114.73. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact targeting 115.48 and 117.00.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. We are still in bearish consolidation phase. Expected range at 132.55 (38.2 Fibo) – 131.00 (61.8% Fibo). We need a clear break from either side to see clearer direction. I still maintain my bullish outlook and expecting a clear break above 132.55 to keep the falling wedge bullish scenario intact testing 133.55 and 135.03. However, if price break below 131.00, the falling wedge bullish scenario is in a serious threat targeting 130.10.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday. We are now in consolidation phase and any downside pullback is normal but the main scenario remains bullish. My wait and see mode is now activated, waiting for further development. Immediate support at 0.9600. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9467 but as long as price move inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario. On the upside, we need a clear break above 0.9728/49 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849.

Oct-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-04T06:35:00.004+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3790. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price make another breakout above 1.3800 targeting 1.3888 – 1.3900 region before testing 1.4050 area. Immediate support at 1.3700. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.3600 and the lower line of the bullish channel but only violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the strong bullish outlook. Any downside correction should be normal but so far I see no potential technical bearish reversal sign so I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday after corrected lower on Thursday. Like I said, this pair still move in a high volatile market, make new highs and lows without a clear direction inside a broadening formation. As long as price still move inside the major bullish channel we are still in major bullish outlook testing 1.6000 especially if price able to make a strong breakout above 1.5900 but nearest term bias remains unclear and I will keep stay away for now. EUR/USD is still a better pair to be traded than GBP/USD. On the downside, key support level is seen around 1.5650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the major bullish channel.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 83.16 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session, hit 83.86. Price seems hesitate to move lower to 82.87 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay below 84.00 we are still in strong rounding top bearish scenario testing 82.87. Break above 84.00 could trigger further bullish correction but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 0.9720 but again, further bearish pressure was rejected, traded higher around 0.9778 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact, but several rejections to move consistently below 0.9730 could produce bearish exhaustion at this phase. I think I will stand aside for now and wait for further development. Immediate resistance at 0.9843. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 0.9931 but overall the scenario remains strongly bearish. On the downside, we need a clear and consistent move below 0.9730 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9647 region even lower.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 114.85 and hit 115.27 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 115.48 and 117.00. Immediate support at 114.20. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 113.35 support area. Unless the bullish channel violated to the downside, we are still in strong bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement on Friday, but traded higher earlier today in Asian session after found support around 61.8% Fibo retracement as you can see on my h4 chart below. We are still in consolidation phase. I still prefer a bullish scenario but need at least a consistent move above 132.55 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 133.55 and 135.03. On the downside, clear break below 61.% level (131.00) could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook targeting 130.10 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 0.9749 but unable to move consistently above 0.9728 so far. Potential range at 0.9728 – 0.9600 but still within a strong major bullish scenario targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849 especially if price able to make a strong break above 0.9728/49. CCI just cross the 100 line down and now in neutral area indicating potential bearish correction but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

Oct-01 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-10-01T07:19:00.003+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, formed A Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall price still maintain its strong bullish outlook. We have a resistance around 1.3700 area. Break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.3800 – 1.3888. Immediate support at 1.3600 followed by 1.3550. Lower, 1.3500 could be a key support area at this phase. Correction is natural and always happen in the market but technically I do not expect any correction below 1.3500 for now unless we have a big negative fundamental surprise in the Euro zone or US which could create risk aversion sentiment and push the Euro lower.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile movement yesterday but this time with more bearish bias than what happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. Price slipped below the minor bullish channel and now struggling around the lower line of the channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. On another technical perspective, this high volatile movement created a broadening formation, where price make new highs and lows but show unclear direction. I will stay away from this pair for now. For me, EUR/USD is a better pair to be traded in this condition. A consistent move below the minor bullish channel and break below the lower line of the broadening formation and 1.5650 support area could trigger further bearish momentum, change nearest term bias to bearish but as long as price move inside the major bullish channel (white) the major bullish scenario remains intact with target remains around 1.6000 especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5900.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.16 but closed higher at 83.50. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the rounding top bearish scenario targeting 82.87. We may have a range between 84.00 – 82.87 at this phase. On the downside, fear of another Japanese government intervention to weaken the Yen remains a psychological support.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below 0.9730 yesterday but further bearish pressure was rejected and whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.9843 and closed at 0.9820. The major scenario remains bearish but we are now entering a bullish correction phase. CCI in neutral area on h4, slipped above zero level indicating more potential bullish correction testing 0.9931 resistance area. I will stand aside for now. Immediate support at 0.9778. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure retesting 0.9730 before targeting 0.9647.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the bullish channel but the bullish channel hold so far and closed significantly higher at 113.82. This fact keeps the major bullish outlook intact, still targeting 114.73 even 115.48 in nearest term. Immediate support at 113.35 followed by 112.96 (yesterday’s low). Only a consistent move below that area and clear break below the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the 50% level and now struggling around the 61.8% level as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently below 61.% level (131.00) testing 130.10 area. As you know, I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase based on the falling wedge bullish scenario, but the bearish pullback is more than I had expected, so I will stay away from this pair for now. Immediate resistance at 131.70. Break above that area will keep the bullish scenario intact testing 132.71 (yesterday’s high).

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 0.9728. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price is consolidating but the major scenario remains strongly bullish, especially if we have a strong breakout above 0.9728 targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849. Immediate support at 0.9600 followed by 0.9467.

Sept-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-30T07:16:00.002+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3645 and closed at 1.3624. Overall we are still in strong bullish phase targeting 1.3700 – 1.3800 area this week especially if price make another breakout above 1.3645. As you can see on h4 chart below, CCI about to cross the 100 level indicates potential minor bearish correction testing 1.3550 – 1.3500 support area. In the last two weeks price bullish movement is characterized by breakout – consolidation – breakout patterns. So right now, with CCI start to show potential downside pullback re-testing zero level, we may be in another consolidation phase but short position is not recommended. Only a movement below 1.3500 and violation to the bullish channel could diminish the bullish outlook and trigger further bearish correction.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. We are still in strong bullish phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario but need a clear break above 1.5900 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6000. On the downside, key support level remains around 1.5728 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red). Break below that area could diminish the bullish outlook testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white).

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in the context of major strong bearish scenario targeting 0.9647 especially if break below 0.9730. I have made adjustment to the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 0.9814 (yesterday’s high) and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction but as long as price stay below 0.9931 I think we are still in strong bearish phase.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but still able to stay below 84.00 and made a lower low on daily chart indicates the rounding top bearish scenario remains intact targeting 82.87. Another pullback above 84.00 could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the rounding top bearish scenario. Fundamental focus still about the potential intervention by the Japanese government to stop further Yen appreciation.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in a major strong bullish outlook as long as price keep moving inside the bullish channel targeting 114.73. CCI just cross the 100 line as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates potential downside correction testing 113.35 and the lower line of the bullish channel. A violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 112.67 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price still trapped between 23.6% – 50% Fibo retracement. The major scenario remains bullish re-testing 135.03 but the bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break from range area to see clearer direction. Aggressive traders may long around 131.70 (50% level ) or short around 133.55 (23.6% level) with tight stop loss.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in major strong bullish scenario targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849 especially if price able to make a strong breakout above 0.9728 today. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart indicates limited bullish momentum with potential bearish correction testing 0.9600 but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

Sept-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-29T07:15:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
In my weekly summary on Saturday, I said that the EURUSD bullish momentum indicated and started by strong consecutive breakouts and we could see more breakouts. As you can see on my h4 chart below, yesterday we have another strong breakout with big bullish candle above 1.3500 after price bounced from the lower line of the bullish channel which provided good support. CCI also rejected to move below zero level indicates bullish momentum remains strong. This fact could continue the bullish momentum targeting 1.3700 in nearest term before testing 1.3800 – 1.3888 area. Immediate support at 1.3500. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel but the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The 1.5728 support level hold so far, keep the strong bullish outlook intact, testing 1.6000 especially if price able to break above 1.5900 resistance area. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.5728 and violation to the minor bullish channel (red) could diminish the bullish outlook testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white).

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY slipped below 84.00 yesterday, bottomed at 83.69 and now still able to move below 84.00 indicates potential further bearish pressure targeting 82.87. Another consistent movement back above 84.00 could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the rounding top bearish scenario.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9736 and closed at 0.9761. This fact could trigger further bearish continuation targeting 0.9647 especially if price able to break below 0.9730 support area. On the upside, another pullback above 0.9778 could lead us to neutral area in nearest term but the main scenario remains strongly bearish.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but found support at the lower line of the bullish channel before whipsawed to the upside, topped at 114.01. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 114.73. Immediate support at 112.80 – 113.00 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Overall we are still in strong bullish phase and only a violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday and overall still trapped between 23.6% – 50% Fibo retracement as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. I prefer a bullish scenario and expecting clear breakout above the 23’6% (133.55) testing 135.03. However, a clear breakdown below 50% level (131.70) could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook which started after the breakout above the falling wedge formation.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after struggling around 0.9600, topped at 0.9685. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9792 before testing 0.9849 especially if price able to make another breakout above 0.9685 today. Immediate support 0.9600. Break below that area could lead us back to neutral zone but the main scenario remains strongly bullish.

Sept-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-28T06:50:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday after failed to make a clear break above 1.3500 resistance area. The bias is neutral in nearest term as price is consolidating. The strong bullish outlook remains intact but need a clear break above 1.3500 to continue the bullish momentum testing 1.3700. On the downside, immediate support at 1.3400 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below that area could diminish the bullish outlook. As you can see on my h4 chart below, CCI maintain above zero level during the strong bullish momentum. A violation to the bullish channel followed by CCI movement below zero level could trigger significant bearish pressure testing 1.3310 support area. On the other hand, another rejection to move below zero level followed by a clear break above 1.3500 could continue the bullish scenario. My fundamental focus today will be on German Prelim CPI and US CB Consumer Confidence. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to drive the movement during the release so good numbers could continue the upside pressure while bad numbers could trigger downside pullback.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD slipped above 1.5841 yesterday but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 1.5808. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase indicated by two bullish channels as you can see on my h4 chart below. CCI in neutral area indicates limited bullish pressure so far as price is consolidating. Immediate support remains around 1.5728 followed the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red) and 1.5650. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white). On the upside, initial resistance which is also potential technical bullish target is seen around 1.5900 followed by 1.6000. Fundamental focus today will be on UK Current Account and US CB Consumer Confidence. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to drive the movement during the release so good numbers could continue the upside pressure while bad numbers could trigger downside pullback

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but after false breakout on Friday we have to assume that the rounding top bearish scenario remains intact especially if price able to break below 84.00 support area testing 82.87 region. However note that further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention. I will keep stand aside from this pair. On the upside, break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook and trigger further upside pressure testing 85.90 region.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped above the bearish channel but without a strong upside momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario. Immediate resistance remains around 0.9931. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0030/60 region. On the downside, we need a clear break below 0.9778 to end this consolidation and continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9730 and 0.9647 region.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY bullish momentum was paused yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest but still within a major strong bullish scenario as price still move inside the bullish channel. Immediate support at the lower line of the bullish channel and 112.55 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 111.50/60 area. On the upside, we need a clear break above 113.76 to continue the bullish scenario testing 114.73.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see price still struggling around the 23.6% level. We are now still in consolidation phase but the major scenario remains bullish after the falling wedge bullish scenario confirmed but still need a consistent move above 23.6% level (around 133.55) to continue the bullish scenario testing 135.03. On the downside, only a clear break below 131.70 could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday. The major scenario remains strongly bullish but so far unable to stay above 0.9600 resistance area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 0.9538. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback testing 0.9467 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains bullish. On the upside, break above 0.9650 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 0.9715 before targeting 0.9849.

Sept-27 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-27T08:57:00.002+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3494 and closed at 1.3488 after break out above my minor bearish channel indicating potential further bullish scenario especially if price able to make another strong break out ab0ve 1.3500 targeting 1.3700. Note that 1.3500 could be an important and strong resistance area at this phase since it is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5140 – 1.1876 , so I think we need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish momentum. Another bearish pullback after testing 1.3500 area on Friday is normal and another minor bearish channel could be formed, but overall we are still in strong bullish bias unless price break below the major bullish channel (white). Immediate support at 1.3438 – 1.3400. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.3310 support area but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. Although there are many who maintain their negative outlook on global recovery progress which should create risk aversion and push the Euro down, price action shows that market still have positive bias after FOMC meeting and some good fundamental data lately. Trade the facts, not the opinions.

GBPUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the GBPUSD made strong bullish movement after break above 1.5728, topped at 1.5841 and closed at 1.5821. This fact opens the door for further bullish continuation targeting 1.6000 region especially if price make another strong break out above 1.5841. Immediate support at 1.5728 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario for now.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was technically a mess on Friday. Price slipped above 84.82, topped at 85.38 but quickly whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 84.20. The way I see it, there are some forces in the market trying to go against the Japanese government acts to weaken the Yen and this is a very tricky situation. I will stand aside for now. Technically speaking, the bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 84.00 re-testing 82.87 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 84.82 to continue the bullish momentum testing 85.90 region and keep the upside outlook intact.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.9778 but the bearish momentum was limited as price closed higher at 0.9828 and keep moving higher around 0.9858 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of a major bearish scenario testing at least 0.9730 support area. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9931. Break above that area and violation to the upside of the bearish channel could lead us to neutral medium outlook.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile on Friday but overall still able to maintain its bullish bias. As long as price still move inside the bullish channel, we are still in strong bullish phase targeting 114.73 area. On the downside, immediate support at the lower line of the bullish channel and 112.55 region. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY started to regain its bullish bias after found support around the 50% Fibo retracement of 128.54 – 135.03 and now struggling around the 23.6% level as you can see on my h4 below. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase especially if price able to move consistently above 23.6% level (around 133.55) re-testing 135.03 region. On the downside, only a clear break below 131.70 could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish bias on Friday, topped at 0.9613 but still unable to consistently move above 0.9600 so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but we need a consistent move above 0.9600 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9650 – 0.9715 region. Immediate support remains around 0.9467. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel we are still in strong bullish phase.

Sept-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-24T07:33:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday after bad Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We haven’t seen significant bearish correction during the strong bullish momentum, so any bearish correction is normal and I don’t see potential technical bearish reversal scenario so far. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a minor bearish channel, (which is also can be seen as a bullish flag formation) indicating bearish consolidation but overall we are still in bullish phase but need a break out above the bearish channel to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3500. Immediate support at 1.3250, which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2644 – 1.3438. Fundamental focus today will be on German Ifo Business Climate and US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Trading in the weekend with some high impact data and technical consolidation could be very tricky so don’t rush jump into the market.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. I have made adjustment to the minor bullish channel (red). Price has been moving in range area of 1.5728 – 1.5500 and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect a clear breakout above 1.5728 testing 1.5800 before targeting 1.6000 in longer term view. Immediate support at 1.5585 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook testing 1.5500 and the lower line of the major bullish channel (white). Fundamental focus today will be on US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to stay and drive the movement for now.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. So far I have conflicting technical view, where violation to the trend line resistance indicates bullish reversal scenario but the rounding top formation indicates bearish scenario. We need a break above 84.82 to cancel the rounding top bearish scenario and continue the upside attempt testing 85.90. On the other hand, break below 84.00 could give further bearish confirmation testing 82.87.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation, which is normal after a strong bearish momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish context. Immediate resistance remains around 0.9931 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could diminish the bearish outlook and activate my wait and see mode but overall we are still in major bearish scenario with 0.9730 as nearest target.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday, but found support around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below and whipsawed to the upside, hit 113.74 earlier today in Asian session. This fact could trigger further bullish continuation testing 114.73 in medium term. Immediate support at 113.00. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase as long as price move inside the bullish channel.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but had some bullish momentum earlier today in Asian market, hit 133.75 after rebounded from 50% Fibo retracement of 128.54 – 135.03 as you can see on my h4 chart below and now struggling around the 23.6% level. This fact could trigger further bullish continuation re-testing 135.03 in medium term especially if price able to stay consistently above the 26.3 % level around 133.60. Immediate support at 132.50.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, but found support around 0.9467 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price still consolidating in range area. The major scenario remains bullish but need a clear break above 0.9600 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9650 – 0.9715 region. On the downside, break below 0.9467 could diminish the bullish outlook, lead us to neutral medium bias but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the main scenario remains bullish.

Sept-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-23T06:51:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3438 and closed at 1.3393 following a strong break out above the trend line resistance on Tuesday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.3500 area before testing 1.3700. Immediate support at 1.3333 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3267 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on some Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound.

GBPUSD Forecast
The Cable is the only major currency that fail to gain from broad Dollar weakness after FOMC meeting. On h1 chart below we can see price still able to move inside the minor bullish channel (red) indicates strong bullish view remains intact but we haven’t seen significant bullish momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5800 and 1.6000. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel and 1.5625. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.5586 but overall we are still in bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on UK BBA Mortgage Approvals and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday after break below 84.82, but found support around the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. A downside pullback testing the violated trend line often happen technically, but a movement back below the trend line could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario re-testing 82.87 as the rounding top bearish reversal scenario is now confirmed. However, like I said yesterday, any further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention and this could be a psychological support. On the upside, another move back above 84.82 should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 85.90 region.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9837 after break below 0.9931 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9730. Immediate resistance at 0.9931. A movement back above that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but as long as price move inside the bearish channel we are still in strong bearish scenario.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. I was expecting more bullish momentum but the upside pressure still limited. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase especially if price able to break above 113.51 testing 114.73. Immediate support at 112.55. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing the lower line of the bullish channel.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to make another bearish pullback yesterday, but found support around 50% Fibo retracement of 128.54 – 135.03 after bullish momentum triggered by the intervention lose some momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario but we need a movement above 133.50 to see further upside pressure. On the downside, consistent move below 131.70 and 50% Fibo retracement could trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.00 region but note that that any further Yen appreciation may trigger another intervention by the Japanese government.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase especially if price able to break above 0.9600 testing 0.9650 – 0.9715 region. Immediate support at 0.9467. Break below that area will activate my wait and see mode but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains bullish.

Sept-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-21T07:23:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3120 but closed lower at 1.3062 in a volatile but indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move above the minor trend line support (white) we are still in strong bullish phase testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. Immediate support at 1.3028 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback towards 1.2930 region. On the upside we still need a clear break above 1.3120 to continue the bullish pressure. Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement. An optimistic tone by The Fed could trigger risk appetite and push Euro higher while a pessimistic tone could trigger risk aversion sentiment and push Euro lower. Price likely to stay volatile ahead and during FOMC meeting.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after break below my minor bullish channel, bottomed at 1.5536 and closed at 1.5548. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if break below 1.5531 testing 1.5450 and the lower line of the major bullish channel. Note that as long as price move inside the major bullish channel, we are still in bullish phase but need a clear break above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario. Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement. An optimistic tone by The Fed could trigger risk appetite and push Cable higher while a pessimistic tone could trigger risk aversion sentiment and push Cable lower. Price likely to stay volatile ahead and during FOMC meeting.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term and so far we have no significant technical moves but I think we are still in a bullish phase especially if break above 85.90 with 87.00 as the nearest bullish target. On the downside immediate support remains around 84.82.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential end of the bullish correction phase and continuation of the major bearish scenario at least re-testing 0.9931 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0060. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 112.35 – 111.60 indicating consolidation. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase and expect breakout to the upside testing 113.00/30 region. On the downside, break below 111.60 could trigger further bearish pullback testing 110.60 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday but overall still move in my expected range area of 136.00 – 133.00. As long as price stay above 133.00, I believe the technical bias remains strongly bullish. However, break below 133.00 will lead us into neutral zone as direction would become unclear. Price likely to stay volatile in nearest term.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 0.9467 but still unable to consistently move above that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains strongly bullish with 0.9506 as the nearest bullish target. Immediate support remains around 0.9330. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing the lower line of the bullish channel.

Sept-20 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-20T07:46:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday after bad US CPI and consumer sentiment numbers triggered risk aversion. Overall we are still in bullish phase but need another break above 1.3120 to continue the upside pressure re-testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. On the downside, immediate support at minor trend line support (white) and 1.3000. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.5728 but closed significantly lower at 1.5629 after bad US CPI and consumer sentiment numbers triggered risk aversion. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.5728 (Friday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5800 even could open the door towards 1.6000 area. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red) and 1.5625 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5531.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish phase but need a clear break above 85.90 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 87.00. Immediate support at 84.82. Only a break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish correction on Friday, bottomed at 1.0067 and closed at 1.0096. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price is moving inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish correction phase. Immediate support at the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.0030 area. Break below that area could end the bullish phase and continue the major bearish scenario testing 0.9931. On the upside, we need another move above 1.0160 to continue the bullish correction testing 1.0277.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish phase but need a break above 112.35 to continue the bullish pressure re-testing 113.00/30 region. On the downside, immediate support at 111.60. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 111.10 – 110.60 region but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 135.03 but closed lower at 134.17. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we have a falling wedge formation which has been broken to the upside indicates potential bullish scenario. Potential range area between 136.00 – 133.00. I still prefer a bullish bias at this phase but need a break above 135.03 to continue the bullish pressure towards 136.00.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 0.9467 but closed significantly lower at 0.9360 and traded around 0.9400 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a range area of 0.9467 – 0.9330. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. We are still in strong bullish phase here so I prefer a bullish scenario and expect break above 0.9467 targeting 0.9506 before testing 0.9849 in longer term view.

Sept-17 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-17T07:38:00.001+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday. As you can see on h4 chart below, we had a significant bullish momentum after price break above 1.3036, topped at 3116. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if we have another breakout above 1.3120 resistance area testing 1.3200 region. Immediate support at 1.3036. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2950/20 but overall we are still in bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on Germany PPI and Euro zone current account and US CPI and Consumer Sentiment. I believe that risk aversion/appetite sentiment will move the market during those data release.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5537 but again, closed higher at 1.5602. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but like I said yesterday, we need a break above 1.5650 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.5735 – 1.5800. Immediate support at 1.5531. Fundamental focus today will be on US CPI and Consumer Sentiment and it is likely that risk aversion/appetite sentiment will determine the direction during those data release.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if we have a clear break above 85.90 targeting 87.00 region. The strong breakout above the trend line resistance confirms my technical bullish reversal outlook. Immediate support at 84.82. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after break above 1.0060 and now struggling around 1.0160 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to stay consistently above 1.0160 targeting 1.0277. Unless we have another movement back below 1.0060, I think we are still in strong bullish correction phase.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish pressure yesterday and as you can see on my daily chart below price now seems comfortable above the trend line resistance suggests potential further bullish scenario. Looks like the intervention worked very well. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 113.30 especially if price able to break above 112.35. Immediate support at 111.60 – 111.10 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the intervention should keep the overall bias remains bullish targeting 136.00 region. Immediate support at 132.96/50 region. I do not expect any downside rebound below that area today.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9329 but we had another bullish pressure earlier today in Asian session as price is struggling around 0.9400 region, which is a key resistance level from long term view. Consistent move above that area could continue the major bullish scenario testing 0.9506 before testing 0.9849. On the downside, immediate support at 0.9329 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall the major scenario remains strongly bullish.

Sept_16 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

2010-09-17T00:31:00.000+01:00

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. On h1 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below the bullish channel could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920/50 but any downside rebound now should not be a surprise since we haven’t seen bearish correction since last weekend. On the upside, break above 1.3036 (yesterday’s high) could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3120. Fundamental focus today will be on four US economic data. PPI, unemployment claims, TIC purchases and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Good numbers could trigger another risk appetite, push Euro higher while bad numbers could trigger risk aversion lead us to technical downside rebound. However the results could be mixed and produce another high volatile market.

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5448 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.5650 and closed at 1.5634. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we need a break above 1.5650 to continue the bullish pressure towards 1.5700 before testing 1.5800 region. CCI just cross the 100 line down and now in neutral area on h1 chart indicating potential downside correction testing 1.5531 and the lower line of the bullish channel but overall we are still in bullish phase and only violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current short/medium term bullish outlook.

USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above the trend line resistance as you can see on my daily chart below, suggests potential bullish reversal scenario. The power behind the bullish momentum was the intervention. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 85.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 87.00. Immediate support at 84.82. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel indicates bullish correction/consolidation but the main scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.0060. Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.0160. On the downside, my key level is at 0.9917 support area. I think we need a clear break below that area to continue the bearish scenario.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after the Japanese intervention, topped at 111.60. On h4 chart below we can see price is now struggling around the trend line resistance indicates critical technical point. Consistent move above the trend line resistance could be a beginning of a new technical bullish reversal at least testing 112.30/50 area. Immediate support at 110.50 followed by 109.80. I prefer a bullish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was also had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after the intervention, break above the bearish channel as you can see on my daily chart below indicates potential bullish reversal scenario at least testing 136.00 region. Immediate support at 132.50. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a triangle formation indicates consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Break above the triangle and consistent move above 0.9400 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.9506. On the other hand, break below the triangle could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9275 but overall we are still in strong bullish scenario.