Monday, October 27, 2008

Oct-27 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Mon, 27th of October, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bearish scenario on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.2497 and closed at 1.2623. From long term point of view on monthly chart the pair is now targeting 1.2138 (50% Fibonacci retracement from 0.8225 to 1.6038). My model goes short targeting 1.2480 then 1.2380. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2690 followed by 1.2740. CCI just cross -100 line down on monthly chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.2422
S2= 1.2221
S3= 1.1946
R1= 1.2898
R2= 1.3173
R3= 1.3374

GBPUSD Outlook
We had a very unusual market movement on Friday. The GBPUSD moved about 1000 pips! The pair bottomed at 1.5262 but closed higher at 1.5903. Early today in Asian session the pair continue to traded lower around 1.5707 at the time I wrote this comment. The pair seemed to ignore all technical indicators/oscillators that suggest the pair is now already in a very extreme oversold area and need some upside corrections. My model goes short. From long term Fibonacci study on monthly chart the pair is now targeting 1.4548 area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 1.0463 to 2.1161). Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5895.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.5344
S2= 1.4785
S3= 1.4309
R1= 1.6379
R2= 1.6855
R3= 1.7414

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY also made a huge movement on Friday. The pair hit my short target at 95.73 and bottomed far below at 90.89 and closed higher at 94.30. Early today in Asian session the pair was traded around 93.80 at the time I wrote this comment. My model remains short targeting 90.89 (Friday’s low). CCI just cross -100 line down on monthly chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 90.80
S2= 87.30
S3= 83.72
R1= 97.88
R2= 101.46
R3= 104.96

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued to push higher on Friday but with less power than I had expected. The pair topped at 1.1748 and closed at 1.1668. My model remains long and still targeting 1.1855. Immediate support is seen at 1.1559. CCI in neutral area and heading down both on hourly and 4h chart suggesting a potential downside corrections.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances: