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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
June-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish correction was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price violated the minor bullish channel indicating potential bearish in nearest term testing 1.2240 support area and the lower line of the major bullish channel. I think I will stand aside for now. I have conflicting bias between nearest term (bearish) and medium term (bullish). Note that we need a movement below the major bullish channel to end this upside correction phase. Break below 1.2240 could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.2150 area. On the upside, another consistent movement above 1.2350 – 1.2400 should keep the upside correction scenario remains strong testing 1.2520 and 1.2645 area.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped below the minor trendline support and now struggling around the trendline indicating critical technical point in nearest term. Consistent move below the minor trendline support and 1.4750 support area could diminish the bullish correction momentum testing 1.4600 area before testing the major trendline support (white). On the upside, the bullish correction scenario should remains strong if price able to stay above 1.4750 support area with 1.5000/50 region remains potential bullish correction target.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to stay below the triangle yesterday and now back moving inside the triangle, lead us back into no trading zone. This fact could potentially produce a false breakdown scenario especially if price break above the triangle, confirms the upside scenario. If price make another false break(out) above the triangle, then my technical outlook would be a mess and I should change my technical outlook for this pair. I will stand aside for now. Expected range at 92.10 – 90.70/50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the minor trendline resistance did a good job preventing further upside pressure so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A movement above the minor trendline resistance could give us some space for further upside correction testing 1.1170 even 1.1245 area but as long as price move inside the bearish channel the main outlook remains bearish. On the downside, 1.0920 area remains the nearest downside target.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the triangle but failed to maintain its bullish momentum and now back moving inside the triangle. This fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish pressure especially if price make a break below the triangle, end the bullish correction phase at least targeting 110.66 and 109.75 region. Immediate resistance at 112.80 – 113.00 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 114.50 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the minor trendline resistance but failed to maintain its bullish momentum and now back below the trendine resistance. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but this fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Note that we are still in bullish correction phase and need a movement below the bullish channel to end the bullish correction phase. Immediate support at 133.20 area. Initial resistance at 136.00 (yesterday’s high).

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase as long as price move above 0.8550 region. Immediate support at 0.8710. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8550 and could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario. Initial resistance at 0.8858 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.8950 even 0.9100 area in longer term.

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