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Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Nov-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after failed to move consistently above 1.3770 resistance area, bottomed at 1.3576 and hit 1.3544 earlier today in Asian session. This fact keeps the bearish medium outlook intact but would need a clear break below 1.3446 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3333. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3446 especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.3544. Immediate resistance at 1.3630. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3700 – 1.3730 area. On fundamental side, beside the Ireland issues which drive the market sentiment lately, we will have some Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI numbers and US Prelim GDP and existing home sales today as catalyst to move the market.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another upside attempt yesterday, but once again, the upper line of the minor bearish channel (red) rejected further bullish momentum and whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5898 and closed at 1.5940. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5880 and the lower line of the bullish channel, but note that as long as the major bullish channel (white) hold, the major bullish outlook should remains intact. A violation to the major bullish channel could be a threat to the bullish outlook and could be an early signal of a new bearish phase testing 1.5750 – 1.5650 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5950. Consistent move above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6000 – 1.6083.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant technical move yesterday and still trapped in range area of 82.84 – 83.70. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break on either side to see clearer direction. A clear break above 83.70 could trigger further bullish continuation testing 84.70 while a break below 82.84 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 82.40 – 81.95 support area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish consolidation yesterday, but still move above the triangle. Price still trapped in range area of 1.0000 - 0.9850 and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. We need a clear break above 1.0000 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0182. On the other hand, break below 0.9850 could diminish the bullish outlook testing 0.9800 – 0.9750. I will stand a side for now and see further development.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 113.24 and closed at 113.29. I will keep stand aside as long as price still trapped in range area of 115.65 – 111.60. While longer time frame shows no clear direction, intra-day traders may get advantage from smaller time frame like hourly and 30 minutes chart. Immediate support at 112.80. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.20/00 region. Initial resistance at 113.50. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 114.20/84 area.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. We are in a critical technical point here, where a violation to the bullish channel and clear break below 132.50 could be a threat to the bullish outlook and potentially produce an early bearish reversal signal testing 132.00 and 131.00 support area. Immediate resistance at 133.20. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 133.60 – 134.20 area and keep the bullish scenario remains strong.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I will stand aside for now. The bearish reversal scenario remains intact but need a clear break below 0.9750 for further bearish confirmation. Immediate support at 0.9810. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9750 area. Initial resistance at 0.9950. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.0000 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook re-testing 1.0182 historical level.

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