Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Oct-30 ForexYard Indicator Report
| by: Forexyard Be Prepared! U.S. ADVANCED GDP Tomorrow At 12:30 GMT! We at ForexYard encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are expected tomorrow, October 30th, at 12:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Advanced GDP, please read below. What is the The Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a survey that is being used to measure the annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the relevant economy. It is defined as the total market value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. economy in one quarter, in this case the 3rd quarter. The survey is released on a quarterly basis and it measures the differences compared to the same quarter in the previous year. There are 3 versions of the GDP, released one month apart - "Advanced", "Preliminary" and "Final". The "Advanced" estimates are based on source data that is incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, while the adjusted figures are delivered through the 'Preliminary' version. Traders follow this survey very closely because it is considered to be the broadest measurement of economic activity and a primary gauge of an economy's health. If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts Expectations for this quarter reveal that the Advanced U.S. GDP figures will probably fall from 2.8% on the 'Final' publication to -0.5% on the 'Advanced'. Previous surveys have shown that GDP publications that go inline with market forecasts tend to leave the Dollar unchanged. They have also shown that in cases where publications have beaten analysts' forecasts, the market was greatly impacted, and the USD had instantly rose, usually in a dramatic trend. Because of the perceived economic weakness in the U.S. economy, any measure above the forecasted value may act as a positive that could return the USD's previous bullish run against the EUR. We may see a EUR/USD rate of 1.2700 continue through the week's end. If the Survey Will Surprise With Bearishness When the actual figure is lower than forecasted, investors are likely to see the USD depreciating against its currency pairs and crosses. Previous indicators relating to consumer spending, sentiment, and retail sales all came in below their expected values. Also the failure of Lehman Brothers in September caused major turbulence in the financial markets during the third quarter. American citizens may have been spooked by this event and kept their spending tight in the previous quarter. GDP numbers may be negatively affected as private consumption contributes a large percentage of the calculation. This leads us to believe that Advanced GDP may fail to meet expectations and send the USD lower against the EUR, possibly to the 1.3000 level. Labels: forex, Forex Analysis |
posted by Matbank at 11:30 PM
