Friday, December 5, 2008
ForexYard indicator report
| by: Forexyard Be Prepared! US Non-Farm Employment Change Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT We at ForexYard encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures are expected on Friday, December 5th, 13:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, please read below. What is Non-Farm Employment Change? The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as "Non-Farm Payrolls" (NFP) and the "Employment Report," is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. Each month the Current Employment Statistics Program surveys about 150,000 businesses, representing approximately 390,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, work-hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls for all 50 U.S. states. The survey is then published on the first Friday of each month. The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month's market movement. Investors should also note Wednesday's 13:15 (GMT) release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.'s (ADP's) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past, ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release two days later. With the volatility of world economies in recent months, however, ADP has not been able to correctly estimate the Non-Farm Payroll outcome, only strengthening the real power behind Friday's news release. If the Survey Comes Inline With Market Forecasts Expectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures are forecasted to drop to -320K from last month's -240K. Such a result, should it take place, will be the lowest drop in employment numbers that the U.S. economy has experienced since April of this year. The recent economic struggle, which is being fought vehemently by the U.S. government, has created doubt in the market for the USD, which is driving its value lower. Considering that this survey has delivered negative figures for several consecutive months now, another sharp drop could signal a reversal to the USD's bullishness. This would mean the USD could be facing a very unfortunate weekend, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise back toward the 1.3000 level again. If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness If the actual figure is higher than forecasted, -230K for example, traders are likely to see a continuation of the USD's bullishness. Currently, investors are setting their positions on the USD based on the assumption that by the end of the week the USD could face a reversal to its bullish momentum. However, in case the survey delivers better figures than expected, investors might be compelled to reevaluate their strategies and go long on the USD. In this turn of events, the USD may receive an extra boost to its bullish strength, and the EUR/USD could drop toward levels of 1.2200. Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, Market Analysis |
posted by Matbank at 1:28 PM
