Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Dec-02 World Daily Markets Briefing
| by: ADVFN Newsdesk US Stocks at a Glance US STOCKS-Wall St opens higher after Monday's losses NEW YORK - U.S. stocks rose 1 percent at the open on Tuesday as investors snapped up beaten-down shares after Monday's losses, while renewed hopes for the auto industry tempered worry about the recession. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 63.87 points, or 0.78 percent, at 8,212.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 9.80 points, or 1.20 percent, at 826.01. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 14.01 points, or 1.00 percent, at 1,412.08. TREASURIES-Bonds fall in pullback from recent price surge NEW YORK - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Tuesday with traders betting there is not much room for further bond price gains after a recent rally that pushed yields to the lowest in at least 50 years. Longer-dated yields, which move inversely to prices, hit the lowest in five decades on Monday as worries over the struggling economy had investors stampeding to lower-risk government debt. But due to expectations for a flood of new debt issuance, investors on Tuesday pulled back from any idea that yields could remain this low. "It has gotten a little bit overdone, and you are starting to get into heavy negative territory," said William Larkin, fixed income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts, adding "all of the new debt issuance is going to stimulate higher rates at some point." Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were trading 14/32 lower in price for a yield of 2.78 percent from 2.73 percent late on Monday. Benchmark yields on Monday reached to as low as 2.65 percent. Selling was more acute in longer-dated bonds, with investors betting that while the economy may currently be at risk of deflation, ultimately inflation will outpace current yields. "The chances of inflation being that low (2.65 percent) for the next 10 years is zero," Larkin said. The 2-year note was trading 1/32 lower in price for a yield of 0.94 percent, up from 0.92 percent late on Monday but still below the Federal Reserve's target rate for overnight lending between banks of 1.00 percent. The 30-year bond was trading 1-27/32 lower in price for a yield of 3.28 percent from 3.20 percent late on Monday. Forex FOREX-Shaky stocks support yen, interest rates in focus LONDON - The yen rallied to a five-week high versus the dollar on Tuesday as volatile stock markets reflected continued risk aversion, while investors anticipated dramatic interest rate cuts later in the week. An unexpectedly bold 100 basis point cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the Australian dollar under pressure, while raising speculation that other central banks may follow suit with aggressive easing to revive flagging economies. A steep slide in the yuan to the bottom of its trading band against the dollar supported the U.S. currency as it raised speculation that China may be shifting its forex policy to allow the yuan to depreciate to stimulate the economy. The dollar has found support in recent months from deleveraging as investors cut exposure to riskier assets and repatriated returns into the U.S. unit. Analysts said expected rate cuts this week would further benefit the dollar as they would shrink the yield advantage of currencies such as the euro and sterling. "The dollar is supported generally because we're seeing a move towards a convergence of global rates with low U.S. and Japanese rates," said Chris Turner, head of currency strategy at ING in London. "That makes the dollar less unattractive (from a yield perspective) in a way," he said, noting the possibility of aggressive rates cuts in the UK, euro zone, Sweden and New Zealand this week. The dollar fell as low as 92.64 yen according to Reuters data, before recovering to 93.14 yen by 1130 GMT, little changed on the day. China's yuan closed at the bottom of its daily trading band against the dollar, which analysts said left open the door to a slow yuan depreciation, triggering a surge in yuan/dollar volatility. The low-yielding Japanese currency pushed higher on an early tumble in European shares, which had prompted investors to unwind more carry trades, in which the yen is used to fund purchases of assets in higher-yielding currencies. This had initially put yen crosses under selling pressure, but a claw back in shares to trade 0.4 percent higher on the day later helped to cut yen gains. The euro was steady at 117.65 yen, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed roughly 1.0 percent each. The euro steadied versus the dollar to $1.2650, but sterling fell 0.6 percent $1.4792. The UK currency stayed weak across the board, pushing sterling/yen as low as 137.14 yen, its weakest level since mid-1995. A Reuters poll shows that a majority of economists expect the Bank of England to slash rates by 100 basis points on Thursday, a month after chopping them by 150 basis points to 3.0 percent. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank is seen cutting rates by at least 50 basis points from 3.25 percent and possibly more. Market participants expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 100 basis points or more from 6.5 percent. Sweden's central bank said on Monday it would hold its next policy-setting meeting this Wednesday, nearly two weeks ahead of schedule, prompting speculation of a deep rate cut. Markets expect Swedish rates to be cut as much as a full percentage point. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Dec. 4. The Bank of Japan held an emergency policy meeting on Tuesday and announced the central bank will accept a wider range of corporate debt as collateral in money market operations to help ease a squeeze in credit markets. The BOJ held interest rates steady at 0.3 percent as expected at the meeting. Rates and economic weakness were overarching themes in the market following official confirmation on the state of the U.S. economy late on Monday, when the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee said the economy slipped into recession in December 2007. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy remained under considerable strain, and that the central bank had alternative tools it could employ as interest rates approach zero. Traders said U.S. stocks had extended losses on reports that Goldman Sachs is likely to report net losses of as much as $2 billion for its latest quarter. European News Europe shares rise as oils recover; financials volatile LONDON - European shares were up by midday on Tuesday as energy companies recovered with crude prices turning back up, though financials were volatile as investors digested news of more global central bank action to rescue weakening economies. At 1206 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index index of top European shares was up 1.3 percent at 820.88 points, having fallen 6 percent on Monday. The index has lost more than 45 percent this year, hammered by a credit crisis and several major economies going into recession. Oil, which was down 3 percent at below $48 a barrel early in the session, regained some ground to trade above $49.53. Shares in Total, ENI, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol were u p between 1.4 and 2.1 percent, adding most points to the index. Analysts continued to be pessimistic for the prospects for a sustained recovery for shares. "Investor sentiment is just very fragile," said Darren Winder, head of macro and strategy research at Cazenove. "At the macro level, there is plenty to fear. At the moment, most things that can go wrong seem to be going wrong. The actions that have been taken will take time to have effect. Investors don't have patience." British retailer Tesco soared 8.6 percent after the company met forecasts with a 2 percent rise in underlying UK sales and said its new discount range was helping boost sales volumes and customer numbers. Vedanta Resources was up 9.6 percent as it launched a $250 mill ion share buyback. But more evidence of the weak state of the European economy came in the shape of euro zone producer prices on Tuesday, which fell more than expected month-on-month in October, underlining disinflationary trends in the recession-hit economy and the scope for a deep ECB interest rate cut. A drop in the cost of energy and intermediate goods pulled down prices at factory gates in the 15-country area by 0.8 percent against September for an annual rise of 6.3 percent, the European Union's statistics office said. "Moderating inflation is good as long as you're not the one who's cutting prices. This data gives more support to bonds than it does to equities," said Winder. Underlining the tough macro environment, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 100 basis points and the Bank of Japan moved to ease an acute cash crunch for companies. bsp; Across Europe, Britain's FTSE rose 0.8 percent, Germany's DAX gained 2 percent and France's CAC was up 0.8 percent. "The volumes are still fairly low. There is a rumour doing the round that (U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry) Paulson has secured another $150 billion for the banks, but nothing concrete there," said Manoj Ladwa, senior trader at ETX. The European Central Bank slashed rates by 50 basis points in both October and November to the current level of 3.25 percent, saying inflation pressures were falling. The market consensus is that the bank will cut rates again by 50 basis points on Thursday to 2.75 percent, but many economists argue a reduction of 75 to 100 basis points would be better. Markets have priced in a 75 basis point cut . Several banks turned positive late morning, despite growth worries and a report in the Wall Street Journal that said Goldman Sachs was likely to report a net loss of as much as $2 billion for the fourth quarter. Banco Santander rose 2.3 percent; Commerzbank rose 9.1 percent. But HSBC was the top-weighted loser, falling 1.2 percent, while Barclays was down 2.9 percent and BNP Paribas fell 1.7 percent. "Equities will have a rough ride at the start of December, and this will continue until we see a ray of hope on the macro side," said Franz Wenzel, strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris. Asia at a Glance Nikkei falls below 8,000 level; Sydney off 4% HONG KONG - Asian stocks fell sharply Tuesday, as investors fretted about the likelihood the global economy is headed for a deflationary bust, with central banks in Australia and Japan unveiling new policy measures to combat the credit crunch. Japan's Nikkei benchmark dived below the 8,000 level as automakers and other exporters were hurt by the U.S. dollar's decline to the lower-93-yen level. Selling in Japanese equities accelerated as the Bank of Japan's policy board emerged from an emergency meeting Tuesday to announce it would accept a broader range of collateral against the provision of liquidity. The move included loosened standards for the acceptance of corporate bonds. The BoJ held its overnight call rate at 0.3%. "Financial conditions in Japan have become less accommodative on the whole, as the financial positions of small firms have deteriorated and an increasing number of large firms have faced a worsening in funding conditions," the BoJ said in a statement. The central bank also said it would provide unlimited funds collateralized by corporate debt at interest rates equal to its base rate. Woodside Petroleum led declines within the commodity sector, following a near-double-digit percentage decline in crude-oil prices overnight. The U.S. dollar eased to 93.21 yen late afternoon in Tokyo in the wake of the BoJ decision. The greenback fell 2.6% against its Japanese counterpart to close at 93.05 yen in New York Monday. "It's been a depressing morning," said Ben Collett, head of hedge-fund sales trading for Daiwa Securities SMBC in Hong Kong, ahead of the Bank of Japan announcement. "In my opinion we've clearly seen the top of the range that we are set to trade for the rest of this month; the hope is that we've also seen the bottom of that range." Honda Motor Co.'s (HMC) shares ended down 6.9% after Credit Suisse said the automaker may cut its earnings outlook to account for the sharp downturn in global demand in October. Hong Kong-listed shares of HSBC Holdings (HBC) tumbled 5.6% after the bank lifted its Hong Kong mortgage rate by half to three-quarters of a percentage point, its biggest single increase in 10 years. Sydney-listed shares of Macquarie Group , Australia's largest investment bank, tumbled 8.4%, while those of Mitsubishi UFJ Group , Japan's biggest bank, were down 6.1%. The sell-off came in the wake of a bruising session for U.S. stocks Monday, which saw the S&P 500 index plunge 9% to 816, led lower by financials, the energy sector and materials issues. Investors rushed to dump shares after reports showed U.S. manufacturing contracted at its fastest pace in 27 years in November. The Reserve Bank of Australia slashed its main interest rate to 4.25% from 5.25% Tuesday, bringing monetary policy to its lowest level since December 2001. In an accompanying statement, Gov. Glenn Stevens said the Australian economy has thus far weathered the global slowdown better than other developed economies, but he warned that the domestic downturn was gathering pace. "Recent data indicates that a significant moderation in demand and activity has been occurring," Stevens said. Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as $1.46 to $47.82 a barrel in electronic trade. The front-month energy contract ended at $48.72 a barrel in Nymex trade Monday, falling 9.4% during the session after the OPEC members ended a weekend meeting in Cairo without reaching a decision on production cuts. Commodity producers were among the weaker standouts in Sydney, with shares of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both declining 8.2%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 ended 6.4% lower at 7,863.69. The South Korean Kospi fell 3.4% at 1,023.90, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 was down 4.2% at 3,528.30, and China's Shanghai Composite eased 0.4% to 1,887.13. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 4.9% to 13,411.96. Property stocks were under pressure on worries that the HSBC mortgage-rate increase could signal a new trend by local banks to reduce lending and lower risk in an effort to protect against the deepening financial crisis. Standouts in the property sector included Sun Hung Kai Properties , the city's largest developer, shares of which were down 8.4%. Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan's Taiex fell 3.6%, Singapore's Straits Times Index was down 2.2% and New Zealand's NZSX-50 Composite shed 1.2%. Bangkok's SET was little changed, rising 0.1% to 391 after the Thai Constitutional Court ousted Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat from power after finding the People Power Party had committed electoral fraud in a December 2007 election. Analysts said falling input prices among U.S. factories, as revealed in the latest ISM manufacturing survey, released Monday, were a concern. The prices-paid component of the ISM manufacturing survey fell to 25.5 from 37. "The decline in prices is hideous and makes deflation now a most serious concern for the U.S. economy," wore Uwe Parpart, chief economist, strategist Asia with Cantor Fitzgerald in Hong Kong, Gainers included Tokyo Gas Co. and other utility stocks as investors sought out defensive sectors. Shares of Tokyo Gas were up 4.1%. Shares of Nomura were down 9.7% on concerns over a possible dilution of shareholder equity after the brokerage said on Monday it would raise 410 billion ($4.4 billion) in a convertible-bond issue. Among export-related stocks taking a beating, Mazda Motor Corp was down 8.4% and Canon Inc. fell 6.2% Commodities PRECIOUS-Gold extends losses on firmer dollar, falling oil LONDON - Gold slipped in Europe on Tuesday, extending the previous session's losses, as the dollar firmed against the euro and oil prices sank to a 3-1/2 year low, denting interest in the precious metal as an inflation hedge. In addition, rising risk aversion is prompting a sell-off of equities and commodities, while "safer" assets such as the yen and government bonds are soaring. Spot gold was quoted at $766.40/768.40 an ounce at 1000 GMT, down from $770.60 an ounce late in New York on Monday. Gold is being pressured by an upturn in the dollar, which firmed against the euro on Monday after weak euro zone manufacturing data and on expectations for a rate cut from the European Central Bank later this week. The U.S. currency extended those gains on Tuesday."On Friday there was a break lower in the euro-dollar exchange rate, and that was a sign that gold was about to come off," said Societe Generale senior commodities strategist Jesper Dannesboe."Gold came off on Monday, and euro-dollar is further down now," he said. Tumbling oil prices are also pressuring the precious metal, which is often bought as a hedge against oil-led inflation.Crude slipped to a 3-1/2 year low under $48 a barrel as signs grew that the world economy is in worse shape than previously feared, and after OPEC opted to defer an output cut. The price of other hard commodities such as copper and tin were also lower. Equity markets also fell as risk aversion intensified. World stocks slipped as investors worried about the prospect of a deep global recession, while the yen and government bonds climbed. Investors are awaiting a spate of key data due out later this week, culminating in U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday, and interest rate decisions from central banks including the ECB, for signs as to the next direction of trade. "Investors should adopt a cautious strategy today and monitor credit market developments," said Standard Bank analyst Manqoba Madinane. "Increased credit market tension could compromise precious metal investment flows, which could mean yet further price declines," he said. Elsewhere, imports of gold into India -- the world's largest bullion market -- slipped in November to around 35-40 tonnes from 54 tonnes a year ago, the Bombay Bullion Association said. Among other precious metals, silver rose to $9.34/9.42 an ounce from $9.26. Platinum steadied after falling sharply on Monday in the wake of weak Japanese car sales data, having ended that session down 9 percent. The metal is sensitive to a downturn in car demand, as it is chiefly used as a component in catalytic converters. Traders are keenly awaiting U.S. monthly car sales data due out later in the session. Spot platinum was little changed at $790/810 an ounce against $790.50 an ounce late in New York on Friday, while its sister metal palladium eased to $167.50/175.50 an ounce from $171.50. Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading, Moving Average, World Market |
posted by Matbank at 11:43 PM
