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Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Dec-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4457 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4331 and closed at 1.4353. On h4 chart below we can see that was a case of a false breakout from 1.4420 – 1.4250 range area which usually trigger significant bearish momentum, at least testing 1.4250 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4170 – 1.4130 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4420 – 1.4450 area.


GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5867 and closed at 1.5900. The fact that price is now moving consistently below 1.5920 support area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling targeting 1.5800 – 1.5750 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5920 (former support). Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but overall the sentiment should remains bearish for this pair and I am in short mode. Long position is not recommended at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that we are still in an uptrend as price still move inside the bullish channel without serious threat so far with the trendline resistance (red) area as potential area to be tested by current bullish momentum. However note that we seem to have good resistance around 92.30 – 92.50 area. We need a consistent move above that area to continue the bullish momentum at least towards 93.00 today. Immediate support at 91.50. I am in buy mode for this pair and short position is not recommended.


USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the lower line of the bullish channel, bottomed at 1.0278 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.0362. On daily chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakdown from the bullish channel. Although overall this pair is still consolidating, this fact should trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.0450 area today. Immediate support at 1.0330.


EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 132.59 but the bullish momentum was limited as price closed lower at 132.04. However, the fact that price so far able to stay above 131.75 area should lead us into a new phase of bullish scenario targeting 133.50 area. 131.75 area seems to be a good place for long position with tight stop loss below that level . Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio. Break below 131.75 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Forecast

The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in range area of 145.65 – 146.85 area. If you notice, I have made some adjustment to my trendline support. For me as long as the pair stay above 145.65 area I still prefer a bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a valid break from the range area to see clearer direction.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price had a nice bullish momentum after break above my minor terndline resistance (blue), topped at 0.8991 but bullish momentum was stopped by major trendline resistance (red) and traded around 0.8928 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact bring me to a conclusion that the bullish correction should be over now and price should continue to move in its bigger trend, bearish at least targeting 0.8850 area. Only break above the major trendline resistance should be seen as serious threat to the major bearish scenario.

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Dec-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, moved in only small range of 60 pips. On h4 chart below we can see that after the bearish scenario was interrupted by violation to the bearish channel, price seems to consolidating in a range area with 1.4420 area as a key resistance level and 1.4250 as key support level at this phase. The bias remains neutral and we need a valid break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.4420 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4585 while break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4170 – 1.4127. We will have US consumer confidence data today which expected to be the market mover which can take us out from this ranging market and give clearer direction. A better than expected number should be good for the Dollar while a worse than expected number should weaken the Dollar.


GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6014 and closed at 1.5999. However, as you can see on my h4 chart below, actually this pair is still consolidating, indicated by rectangle formation. So basically, the movement is still indecisive and as long as price stay below 1.6050, I still prefer a bearish scenario. Break above 1.6050 should trigger further bullish momentum testing the upper line of the bearish channel and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.5920. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5850 – 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY made another indecisive market, made another Doji on daily chart. Price is consolidating within an ascending triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating the pressure should be more to the upside, especially if price breakout above the triangle targeting 92.32 even 93.30 area. On the downside, key support level remains at 90.80. As long as price stay above that area, I still prefer a bullish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast

Similar to other major pairs, the USDCHF was indecisive yesterday in a thin market indicating consolidation. The bias should remains neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the bullish channel. Violation to the bullish channel should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0230 and should be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook. Key resistance level remains at 1.0450 area. Another break above that area should continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700.


EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Price is now attempting to push higher above 131.75 area, but never really able to move convincingly above that level so far. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle after some bullish momentum indicating potential bullish continuation scenario especially if we have a valid breakout above the triangle, which is also above 131.75 area targeting 132.70 even 133.50 area. However if this bullish ascending triangle fails and price violate the triangle to the downside, price should significantly fall testing 130.90 and 130.05 area. I am expecting to see a valid break from the triangle area to see clearer direction, then just follow it.

GBPJPY Forecast

The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.66 and closed at 146.58. This fact should keep the bullish scenario intact, but we need a consistent move above 146.80 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 149.05 area. On the downside, key support area is seen around the trendline support (blue). Break below that trendline support should be seen as serious threat to the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 146.00 – 145.80 area.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by break above 0.8850 area. The bearish scenario is clearly in a serious threat. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish momentum found a resistance at the minor trendline resistance (blue). We need a break above that trendline to confirm the bullish scenario targeting 0.9020. Another movement below 0.8850 could be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish momentum re-testing 0.8733 area.

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Slipped below 1.4250, targeting 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2456 - 1.5143

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4331 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, break below 1.4250, bottomed at 1.4216 and closed at 1.4253. Looks like the double bottom support failed to prevent the bearish pressure a this phase. This fact should lead us to further bearish scenario with technical target at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2456 – 1.5143 around 1.4127 area which is a key support level from longer term point of view. Break below 1.4127 should be a potential threat to the long term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.4300 – 1.4330 area. We have seen a very strong bearish momentum this month with no sign of significant upside correction.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below psychological level 1.6000, bottomed at 1.5920 and closed at 1.5958. Like I said yesterday, break below 1.6000 area should lead us to further bearish scenario at least targeting 1.5800 this week as the pair is now enter a new phase of bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6000 – 1.6050 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.85 and closed at 91.81. The bias remains to the upside targeting 92.32 area. On my h4 chart below we can see that price had a nice bullish momentum after break above 90.80 area without significant bearish correction indicating strong bullish momentum. Immediate support at 91.50 area. Break above 92.32 area should trigger further bullish momentum at least towards 93.30 this week.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but the fact that price so far able to stay above 1.0450 should keep the bullish scenario intact with target at least around 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700 area. I don’t see significant bearish correction signal so far, so I am expecting further bullish continuation at this phase. Another movement below 1.0450 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term as market might consolidate but overall the bias remains to the upside.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 131.06 and closed at 130.86. The bias should remains to the upside targeting 131.75. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart so watch out for potential bearish correction testing 130.05 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 129.00 area but that will lead me into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Overall the pressure remains to the upside but as you can see on my h4 chart below price still struggling around 146.80 area indicating bullish paused and consolidation. We need a consistent move above 146.80 to continue the bullish scenario towards 148.50 this week. Immediate support 145.90 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction but as long as price move above the trendline support (red) I still prefer a bullish scenario.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8741 and closed at 0.8748. The bias should remains to the downside. I believe, after break below 0.8850 area this pair should continue the bearish momentum at least targeting 0.8650 area before testing key support level around 0.8500 area this month. Immediate resistance at 0.8800 – 0.8850. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction but as long as the trendline resistance (blue) hold, I still prefer a bearish scenario for this pair.

audusddaily

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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Dec-17 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Good Eurozone economic data failed to bring Euro higher, technical bearish should continue

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4589 after some good results of manufacturing and services PMI data, but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.4529. This fact should keep my bearish scenario targeting 1.4450 and 1.4250 this week remains intact. On h1 chart below we can see that price still trapped in a range area of 1.4585 – 1.4500 area indicating consolidation but the bias remains to the downside. We need a consistent move below 1.4500 area to continue bearish momentum towards 1.4450 – 1.4400 area today. Immediate resistance at 1.4589 area (yesterday’s high) and the trendline resistance area (red). Break above those area could be a threat to my bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum after breakout above the triangle yesterday as you can see in my h4 below, topped at 1.6410 but failed to consistently move above 1.6400 area and closed lower at 1.6324. Although this fact lead us into no trading area in nearest term, I still prefer a bearish scenario and it is clearly too early for a bullish reversal scenario. For me, only a consistent move above 1.6400 could be a serious threat to my bearish scenario and break above the trendline resistance (red) should confirm the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.6250 followed by 1.6200. Break below those area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.6113 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, moved in small range with only 60 pips movement. However as you can see on my h4 chart below, the fact that price is able to stay above the trendline support (yellow, former resistance) indicating the pressure is still to the upside targeting 90.70 area. Only a movement back below the trendline support should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish pressure back towards 88.80 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that 1.0450 area is an important resistance area. In October 01, price had a bearish momentum after failed to break above 1.0450 then hit the low at 0.9913 on November 26. Of course, the situation is different now since this time price has violated the major trendline resistance (red) to the upside so the upside pressure should be stronger this time. However, the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a consistent move above the 1.0450 area to confirm further bullish scenario with a new range of 1.0450 – 1.0700 area. Only break below 1.0230 could be considered as potential threat to the bullish scenario.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday indicating consolidation. However, as you can see on h4 chart below, price still move above the trendline support (blue) indicating the pressure is still more to the upside with 131.75 as the nearest bullish target. I think we are in a good place to place a long position with tight stop loss below the trendline support. Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.91 and closed at 146.60. This fact should keep my bullish scenario intact but we need a consistent move above 146.80 area to confirm bullish scenario towards 147.60 and 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.60 followed by 144.85. Only break below 144.85 should be seen as potential threat to my bullish outlook.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8954 but closed higher at 0.8999 after rejected to move above the trendline resistance area, as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish targeting 0.8915 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9030. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

audusdh4

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Friday, December 11, 2009
What is the direction of highest probability today?

Key events today:

UK PPI @ 09:30 GMT

US Retail Sales @ 13:30 GMT

U. of Michigan Confidence @ 15:00 GMT

Probability Studies:

eur

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4780
Bullish Probability above: 1.4870
Significant resistance: 1.4780, 1.4870, 1.5130
Significant support:1.4625

gbp

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6430
Bullish Probability above: 1.6430
Significant resistance: 1.6430, 1.6550
Significant support:1.6236

aud

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9195
Bullish Probability above: 0.9195
Significant resistance: 0.9195, 0.9270
Significant support:0.9058

jpy

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 88.25
Bearish Probability below: 88.25
Significant support: 88.25, 84.78
Significant resistance:90.10

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Wednesday, December 9, 2009
What is the direction of highest probability today?

UK Trade Balance @ 09:30 GMT

Probability Studies:

eur

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4810
Bullish Probability above: 1.4850
Significant resistance: 1.4850, 1.4810, 1.4769
Significant support:1.4625, 1.4480

gbp

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6456
Bullish Probability above: 1.6456
Significant resistance: 1.6456, 1.6350
Significant support:1.6250, 1.5718

aud

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9165
Bullish Probability above: 0.9165
Significant resistance: 0.9260, 0.9165
Significant support:0.9038

jpy

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 88.50
Bullish Probability above: 88.50
Significant resistance: 88.50, 90.38
Significant support:84.78

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Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Dec-08 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Trendline support break but still unable to move consistently below 1.4820/00

The EURUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by break below my major trendline support (red) as you can see on my h4 chart below. Price retreated to the upside, tested the trendline but able to stay below the trendline so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term as we still need consistent move below 1.4820/00 to continue the bearish scenario, but this fact indicating potential bullish failure and bearish reversal scenario towards 1.4700 and 1.4625 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 1.4905 – 1.4950 resistance area. Break above that area and another movement back above the trendline should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me. On the upside, 1.5140/40 area should remains key resistance area at this phase.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. As you can see on my daily chart below, price attempted to push lower, slipped below my trendline support (blue), bottomed at 1.6312 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair closed much higher at 1.6453 and now back above the trendline support. I think we are in no trading zone as direction is unclear for me. Immediate resistance at 1.6500 followed by 1.6600. Initial support at 1.6400 followed by 1.6312 (yesterday’s low).

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.03, closed at 89.34 and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session around 88.85 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair made a bearish momentum after a shooting star candlestick pattern was formed indicating potential downside pullback. The major bullish scenario should remains intact but the bias is neutral in nearest term and I think will stand aside for now. Immediate support at 88.80\50 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing the trendline support area (red, former resistance) and could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario. Initial resistance at 90.30/70 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0243 but closed lower at 1.0193. On h1 chart below we have a triangle formation after significant bullish momentum indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Breakout to the upside should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.0337 area while breakdown to the downside should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.0090 area.

usdchfhourly


EURJPY Forecast
My technical study was a mess yesterday. Price failed to continue its bullish momentum, bottomed at 132.36 and closed at 132.49. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 131.75 but as long as the pair stay above 131.75, the major bullish scenario should remains intact. I prefer to stand aside for now and watch any reaction around 131.75 area before make any decisions today. Immediate resistance at 133.00 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 133.50 area. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
CCI gave us a valid bearish correction yesterday as price bottomed at 146.61 and closed at 147.01. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish scenario is still intact and I still prefer a bullish scenario. I think I will stand aside for now and wait for further development. Immediate resistance at 147.60 area. Break above that area should be seen as the end of bearish correction and continue bullish re-testing 149.15 area. Initial support at 145.40. Break below that area should be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 0.9051 but closed higher at 0.9145. As you can see on my h4 chart below, price still move below my trendline resistance (blue) area indicating bearish scenario remains intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 0.9090. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.9030. Initial resistance at 0.9180. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the trendline resistance and become potential threat to the bearish outlook.

audusdh4

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Friday, December 4, 2009
Dec-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Double top at 1.5140 area, eyes on US NFP and unemployment rate today

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, peaked at 1.5140 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5037 and closed at 1.5053. The bullish scenario remains intact but price formed a double top formation around 1.5140 area indicating potential downside pullback testing 1.5000 – 1.4950/20 area. Break below 1.4950/20 area should trigger further bearish momentum retesting 1.4820 and the major trendline support area (red). We will have US NFP and unemployment rate today. Investors are concern about unemployment condition since high number of unemployment is widely considered as a serious obstacle for economy recovery. A disappointing result may wane investors’ confidence thus could trigger risk aversion and give some support to the Dollar. On the other hand, positive result may increase investors’ confidence and continue to weaken the Dollar, giving technical bullish a support to re-testing 1.5140/50 area. Break above 1.5140/50 area should trigger further bullish scenario at least targeting 1.5300.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price made a false breakout above the trendline resistance and violated the rising wedge formation to the downside indicating potential bearish view at least testing 1.6480 even 1.6400 area. Immediate resistance at 1.6600 and the trendline resistance area. Break above that area should cancel the bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me. Eyes on US NFP and Unemployment rate numbers today.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 88.47 and closed at 88.38. On h4 chart below we can see that we are now in critical technical point where price is now testing the major trendline resistance. A violation to the upside should be seen as a big bullish scenario in longer term back towards 90.60 even 92.27 area. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 88.80 area but CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 87.50 area. I still prefer buy the dips strategy.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
My technical study didn’t worked smoothly yesterday. As you can see on h4 chart below, price slipped below my trendline support (blue) but failed to consistently stay below the trendline and now struggling around the trendline. Technically, although the bearish scenario remains intact, this fact could produce a false breakdown scenario thus could trigger significant bullish momentum testing 1.0120 area in nearest term. I think we are in no trading zone and I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development. On the downside, 0.9913 remains potential nearest target to be tested. Eyes on US NFP and Unemployment rate numbers today.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday as I had expected. The pair topped at 133.54 and closed at 133.05. Earlier today in Asian session price corrected lower bottomed at 132.48 but still able to maintain bullish momentum and traded around 132.95 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 134.00. Immediate support at 132.48 followed by 131.75. Buy the dips remains the best strategy for me.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY bullish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price retreat lower towards my minor trendline support (former resistance). Although a movement back towards the trendline after violation is normal and the trendline support still hold so far, this fact should be considered as potential threat to the bullish scenario, especially if price break below the trendline today, which could be considered as potential false breakout and trigger significant downside momentum testing 144.60 area. On the upside, 147.65 area remains a potential target support by Japanese government policy to weaken the Yen on fundamental side and hammer candlestick formation on technical side. I still prefer buy the dips strategy for this pair.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9321 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 0.9231. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now moving below my trendline support indicating potential false breakout scenario which could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9180 support area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.9100 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9270 followed by 0.9327 area.

audusdh4

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