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Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3431 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 1.3309. Medium bias remains neutral/unclear as price still trapped in range area of 1.3500 – 1.2968. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the minor bullish channel indicates potential bearish bias in nearest term testing 1.3200 – 1.3170 support area but I’m only interested shorting the Euro around 1.3500. Immediate resistance at 1.3370. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3400/50 but only a clear break above 1.3500 would be a threat to the bearish outlook. Overall price still consolidation without clear direction and consistent momentum so do not rush jump into the market.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday, topped at 1.5644 and closed at 1.5595, made another bullish daily candle. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5700 and the upper line of the bearish channel. As long as the bearish channel hold, the major scenario remains bearish so the upper line of the bearish channel still a good place for a short position, but a valid violation to the bearish channel could be an early signal of a bullish reversal and activate my bullish mode testing 1.6000 region. Immediate support at 1.5550. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5500 – 1.5450 but as long as price moves above the trend line we are still in consolidation phase with a neutral medium bias.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish correction yesterday but still unable to break above 82.33 so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 82.33 to continue the bullish correction, lead us to neutral medium bias testing 82.80 resistance area even higher. Immediate support at 81.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and only a clear break below 81.30 would re-activated my bearish mode testing 80.00.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 0.9515 and closed at 0.9478. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9550 and the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above the bearish channel could be a threat to the current bearish outlook with potential bullish reversal scenario testing 0.9750 area. Immediate support at 0.9440. Break below that area would keep the major bearish scenario remains strong testing 0.9350/00 support area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 110.22 but closed significantly lower at 109.26 in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see price made a strong bearish pullback after slipped above the trend line resistance indicates a potential false breakout scenario which could trigger further bearish pressure in nearest term testing 108.60 and 107.30 support area. We are at critical technical point here, where a clear break above the trend line resistance and consistent move above 110.22 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 128.57 and closed at 128.01. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 129.30 resistance area which could be a key level at this phase. The arrows as seen on my daily chart below give a good view about two potential scenarios. Overall we are still in a major bearish outlook, but a clear break above 129.30 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. On the other hand, a failure to break above 129.30 and a movement back below 127.00 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong still targeting 125.50 even lower.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.0027 and closed at 1.0054. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9987 and the trend line support (white). Medium bias remains bullish, but after hit historical highs, we still have potential big downside correction from here. A clear break below 0.9987 could be an early signal of a major big bearish reversal, gives us further confirmation of a bearish short term outlook testing 0.9900, but only a clear break below 0.9550 would give further validation to the long term big bearish reversal scenario. It’s a long way to go and movement could remain tricky with broad Dollar consolidation is still in play.

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