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Friday, December 24, 2010
Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. Overall bias remains bearish as generally price is making lower highs and lows on h4 chart but limited bearish pressure and ranging market could continue as we are entering holiday season. I still prefer a bearish major scenario but again, would need a clear break below the trend line support and 1.3060 key support area before testing 1.2968 – 1.2920. Expected range remains between 1.3200 – 1.3070/60 and need a clear break from either side to see clearer direction. Aggressive traders may long around 1.3070/60 or short around 1.3170 – 1.3200 with tight stop loss. Standing aside until we have a clear break or waiting until next year before jump into the market is not a bad idea too.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a limited bullish momentum yesterday as the daily trend line support still did a good job preventing further bearish pressure. Another reason why the bearish momentum is limited so far is that we are entering holiday season and the end of the year where range market and consolidation condition usually take place. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.5470/80. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.5550/70 but overall we are still in strong bearish outlook. Initial support remains around 1.5350 – 1.5300. A clear break below that area could give us further validation to a bigger bearish scenario testing 1.5000 psychological level.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after broke below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 82.50/33 support area, but my medium outlook remains unclear/neutral. Immediate resistance at 83.56 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a strong upside pullback yesterday, topped at 0.9664. I was anticipating some upside corrections, but not that high. However, price closed significantly lower at 0.9574 and now struggling again around 0.9550 indicates that the bearish pressure is still alive and kicking especially if price make another movement below 0.9550 with 0.9461 as the nearest target. Few days ago I said that 0.9550 – 0.9461 could be a good support until next year so we may still have range market and some bullish pullback, but my overall outlook remains to the downside.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish bias yesterday, bottomed at 108.44 but closed higher at 108.95. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My intermediate bearish target at 108.33 is considered hit, but the major outlook remains to the downside. Tomorrow is Christmas day and we may have some upside pullback today as market could make consolidation move so I will stand aside for now and prepare to enjoy my holiday. On the downside, clear break below 108.33 could trigger further bearish outlook testing 107.30 support area. Immediate resistance at 109.50 followed by 110.10.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 127.44 but closed higher at 128.20 in a volatile market. Price is now struggling around 128.00. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but we are still in the double top strong bearish scenario still targeting 127.00 – 126.50 especially if price make another movement below 128.00. Immediate resistance at 128.74 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 129.33. Holiday season may create consolidation condition with limited momentum, so it’s a good idea to stand aside for now and enjoy your holiday.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish bias yesterday, topped at 1.0065 and closed at 1.0036. The bias remains bullish in nearest term with 1.0090 – 1.0100 as the nearest target before re-testing all time high at 1.0182. Immediate support at 1.0000. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9950/00 but only a break below the trend line support (red) could be a threat the bullish scenario. Tomorrow is Christmas! Merry Christmas and better stop trading and enjoy your holiday people!

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