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Friday, December 10, 2010
Dec-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Overall price still moves in range area of 1.3400 – 13200. On h4 chart below we can see the upper line of the bearish channel still hold so far. Price still making lower highs and lows since the first time it tested the upper line of the bearish channel. CCI in neutral area both in h4 and daily chart but still moves below the zero line. This facts indicate that overall the major bearish scenario remains intact but need a consistent move below 1.3200 – 1.3170 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3100 – 1.2920 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.3322 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.3400/38.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The upper line of the bearish channel still holds so far, keep the major bearish scenario intact. On h4 chart below we can see price still moves in a minor bullish channel (white) indicates that we are still in bullish correction phase. We need a break below the minor bullish channel and 1.5650 support area to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.5550 – 1.5500. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance remains around 1.5850. Consistent move above that area could be a threat to the major bearish outlook testing 1.5900 and could be an early signal of bullish reversal scenario.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 83.51 but closed higher at 83.81. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we have a bullish flag formation indicates potential bullish scenario especially if price breaks above the flag and 84.40 key resistance area targeting 85.00/20. Immediate support remains at 83.40. Consistent move below that area would keep direction remains unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued it bearish pressure yesterday, but the lower line of the minor bullish channel still holds so far as you can see on my h1 chart below, keep the nearest term bullish scenario intact especially if price able to break above 0.9900 targeting 1.0000. On the other hand, a break below the bullish channel and 0.9800 could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 0.9756-25 support area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 110.57 and closed at 110.99. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase, we have a rising wedge formation as you can see on my h4 chart below as a warning of a potential bearish pullback especially if price break below the wedge testing 109.85 even lower. On the upside we still need a clear break above 111.91 to continue the bullish scenario testing 112.50/80. I will stand aside for now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was corrected lower yesterday, slipped below 132.00 and now struggling around that area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario but would need a break above 133.00 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 134.20. On the downside, consistent move below 132.00 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 130.84 support area. I will stand aside for now.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9883 but closed a little bit lower at 0.9841. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I will keep stand aside for now. On h4 chart below we have an inverse “head and shoulders” formation which is a bullish pattern which could be a potential threat to my bearish reversal scenario especially if price breaks above 1.0000. On the downside we need a clear break below 0.9710 to cancel the bullish outlook and continue the bearish reversal scenario.

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