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Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Dec-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, moved in only small range of 60 pips. On h4 chart below we can see that after the bearish scenario was interrupted by violation to the bearish channel, price seems to consolidating in a range area with 1.4420 area as a key resistance level and 1.4250 as key support level at this phase. The bias remains neutral and we need a valid break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.4420 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4585 while break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4170 – 1.4127. We will have US consumer confidence data today which expected to be the market mover which can take us out from this ranging market and give clearer direction. A better than expected number should be good for the Dollar while a worse than expected number should weaken the Dollar.


GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6014 and closed at 1.5999. However, as you can see on my h4 chart below, actually this pair is still consolidating, indicated by rectangle formation. So basically, the movement is still indecisive and as long as price stay below 1.6050, I still prefer a bearish scenario. Break above 1.6050 should trigger further bullish momentum testing the upper line of the bearish channel and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.5920. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5850 – 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY made another indecisive market, made another Doji on daily chart. Price is consolidating within an ascending triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating the pressure should be more to the upside, especially if price breakout above the triangle targeting 92.32 even 93.30 area. On the downside, key support level remains at 90.80. As long as price stay above that area, I still prefer a bullish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast

Similar to other major pairs, the USDCHF was indecisive yesterday in a thin market indicating consolidation. The bias should remains neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the bullish channel. Violation to the bullish channel should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0230 and should be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook. Key resistance level remains at 1.0450 area. Another break above that area should continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700.


EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Price is now attempting to push higher above 131.75 area, but never really able to move convincingly above that level so far. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle after some bullish momentum indicating potential bullish continuation scenario especially if we have a valid breakout above the triangle, which is also above 131.75 area targeting 132.70 even 133.50 area. However if this bullish ascending triangle fails and price violate the triangle to the downside, price should significantly fall testing 130.90 and 130.05 area. I am expecting to see a valid break from the triangle area to see clearer direction, then just follow it.

GBPJPY Forecast

The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.66 and closed at 146.58. This fact should keep the bullish scenario intact, but we need a consistent move above 146.80 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 149.05 area. On the downside, key support area is seen around the trendline support (blue). Break below that trendline support should be seen as serious threat to the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 146.00 – 145.80 area.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by break above 0.8850 area. The bearish scenario is clearly in a serious threat. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish momentum found a resistance at the minor trendline resistance (blue). We need a break above that trendline to confirm the bullish scenario targeting 0.9020. Another movement below 0.8850 could be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish momentum re-testing 0.8733 area.

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