The EURUSD made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4260 but closed higher at 1.4336. The rejection to move below key support level 1.4250 was not a surprise for me. It was a “normal” upside correction on weekend after a significant bearish week, and overall the bearish scenario still in control, reflected on the bearish channel (red channel) as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.4170 – 1.4127 area, which is an important support area in longer term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4400 – 1.4450 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains to the downside but like I said on Friday, 1.6100 – 1.6040 area is a potential strong support area. We are in critical technical phase now. Break below 1.6040 area should trigger further bearish momentum at least testing 1.6000 psychological level and potentially lead us into a new bearish phase with 1.5800 as potential bearish target in longer term. Immediate resistance at 1.6170 followed by 1.6250 area.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.90 but failed to break below 88.80 key support area and whipsawed to the upside, closed significantly higher at 90.47. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a case of a false breakdown from my trendline supports (red, blue) which could trigger significant bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact. I am in a buy mode but the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need consistent movement above 90.70/80 area to continue bullish towards 91.31 even 92.30 area. Immediate support at 90.10. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but as long as price move above the blue trendline support, I still prefer a bullish scenario.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement on Friday. Price failed to consistently move above 1.0450 area and closed lower at 1.0424. This can be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish correction at this phase, but since that happened on a Friday when people may just taking profit on the weekend, the false breakout strategy may not valid this time. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the bullish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0350. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0230 and should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook.
EURJPY Forecast
My decision to stand aside on Friday saved me from a losing trade as this pair was technically a mess. The pair failed to continue its bearish momentum, topped at 130.00 and closed at 129.69. I think I will keep stay away from this pair as I can not see clear direction. Aggressive traders may place a long position around 129.00 support area with tight stop loss below it targeting 130.70.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a volatile movement on Friday. Generally price had a bullish momentum after the false breakdown as you can see on h4 chart below. I do not like a high volatile market since for me it indicates a relative equal bullish and bearish power which give me only 50-50 probability. However technically the bullish scenario should remains intact and I prefer a bullish scenario with 146.80 as the nearest target. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and take us into new bullish phase targeting 148.50 area. On the downside 144.85 and the trendline support area should be a key support level at this phase. Consistent movement below the trendline should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish pressure at least re-testing 143.75 area.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.8809 but closed higher at 0.8897. I think this was a normal upside pullback. On h4 chart below we can see that price is able to stay below key level 0.8915 indicating potential bearish continuation at least targeting 0.8750 area. Break above 0.8915 area should lead us into no trading zone but overall the bearish scenario should remains in control and long position is not recommended at this phase.
