The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4589 after some good results of manufacturing and services PMI data, but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.4529. This fact should keep my bearish scenario targeting 1.4450 and 1.4250 this week remains intact. On h1 chart below we can see that price still trapped in a range area of 1.4585 – 1.4500 area indicating consolidation but the bias remains to the downside. We need a consistent move below 1.4500 area to continue bearish momentum towards 1.4450 – 1.4400 area today. Immediate resistance at 1.4589 area (yesterday’s high) and the trendline resistance area (red). Break above those area could be a threat to my bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum after breakout above the triangle yesterday as you can see in my h4 below, topped at 1.6410 but failed to consistently move above 1.6400 area and closed lower at 1.6324. Although this fact lead us into no trading area in nearest term, I still prefer a bearish scenario and it is clearly too early for a bullish reversal scenario. For me, only a consistent move above 1.6400 could be a serious threat to my bearish scenario and break above the trendline resistance (red) should confirm the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.6250 followed by 1.6200. Break below those area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.6113 area.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, moved in small range with only 60 pips movement. However as you can see on my h4 chart below, the fact that price is able to stay above the trendline support (yellow, former resistance) indicating the pressure is still to the upside targeting 90.70 area. Only a movement back below the trendline support should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish pressure back towards 88.80 area.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that 1.0450 area is an important resistance area. In October 01, price had a bearish momentum after failed to break above 1.0450 then hit the low at 0.9913 on November 26. Of course, the situation is different now since this time price has violated the major trendline resistance (red) to the upside so the upside pressure should be stronger this time. However, the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a consistent move above the 1.0450 area to confirm further bullish scenario with a new range of 1.0450 – 1.0700 area. Only break below 1.0230 could be considered as potential threat to the bullish scenario.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday indicating consolidation. However, as you can see on h4 chart below, price still move above the trendline support (blue) indicating the pressure is still more to the upside with 131.75 as the nearest bullish target. I think we are in a good place to place a long position with tight stop loss below the trendline support. Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.91 and closed at 146.60. This fact should keep my bullish scenario intact but we need a consistent move above 146.80 area to confirm bullish scenario towards 147.60 and 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.60 followed by 144.85. Only break below 144.85 should be seen as potential threat to my bullish outlook.
AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8954 but closed higher at 0.8999 after rejected to move above the trendline resistance area, as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish targeting 0.8915 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9030. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.
