EURUSD Forecast:
GBPUSD Forecast:
USDJPY Forecast:
USDCHF Forecast
EURJPY Forecast
GBPJPY Forecast
AUDUSD Forecast
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, m, Market Analysis, Market Trend |
| EUR/USD Forecast: Good Eurozone economic data failed to bring Euro higher, technical bearish should continue The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4589 after some good results of manufacturing and services PMI data, but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.4529. This fact should keep my bearish scenario targeting 1.4450 and 1.4250 this week remains intact. On h1 chart below we can see that price still trapped in a range area of 1.4585 – 1.4500 area indicating consolidation but the bias remains to the downside. We need a consistent move below 1.4500 area to continue bearish momentum towards 1.4450 – 1.4400 area today. Immediate resistance at 1.4589 area (yesterday’s high) and the trendline resistance area (red). Break above those area could be a threat to my bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone.
GBPUSD Forecast:
USDJPY Forecast:
USDCHF Forecast
EURJPY Forecast
GBPJPY Forecast
AUDUSD Forecast
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, forex signal, Forex Trend, m, Market Trend, money trading |
| by: Setyo Wibowo EURUSD Forecast
GBPUSD Forecast The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The rising wedge formation provided us a good bearish signal in nearest term. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.6250 area. However, please remember that above 1.6000, the medium term remains unclear so we have to be very careful. We need consistent move below 1.6380/50 area to confirm bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6468 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should be seen as bearish scenario failure.
USDJPY Forecast The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish attack. We have something interesting here, a battle between the trendline support and a triple top formation. A breakdown below trendline support should set a bearish view towards 92.70 while breakout from the triple top around 95.30/40 should trigger further bullish scenario towards 96.05 and 97.00. I prefer a bearish scenario since the long term trend is bearish, but breakout from the triple top should be seen as bearish failure and potential bullish outlook.
USDCHF Forecast The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0906 and closed at 1.0878. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have good resistance around 1.0922 area. Only clear break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.1022. Immediate support at 1.0800. Break below that area should be seen as bullish failure.
EURJPY Forecast
GBPJPY Forecast
AUDUSD Forecast
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, m, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading, Moving Average |
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD USD Reversal in the Works - Will it Hold? Last Friday's surprising Non-Farm Employment Change report helped to generate a fantastic reversal for USD pairs and crosses. Regaining much of what it had lost in the previous 2 weeks, the greenback rallied Friday and breached a number of significant support and resistance levels. The EUR/USD traded over 1.4200 by mid-day Friday, yet currently trades under 1.4000. The GBP/USD temporarily spiked above 1.6200 only to fall back towards 1.5950 by today's early trading session. These currency pairs only demonstrate a small sampling of the movement which the Dollar witnessed in late-afternoon trading on Friday. Perusing through today's market movements it seems as though last Friday's employment reports will continue to drive market optimism in the US economy. Therefore, traders can expect USD pairs and crosses to continue their reversal, or level-off at the very least. So far, in today's early trading hours, the greenback has appeared to stabilize and float in neutral territory against most of its currency counterparts. With hardly any news coming from the United States, this isn't likely to change today. Looking ahead this week, there isn't much economic news expected which will impact the Dollar like last week's data releases. Traders will likely see a continuation of recent trends primarily due to the lack of economically impacting data from world markets. Significant to bear in mind, however, is the upcoming G8 summit this coming weekend. While it is not an official regulating body, it is an official meeting between finance chiefs and central bankers at the highest levels who will meet to discuss recent issues facing the global economic community. As a result, it may carry an impact on the future movement of the major world currencies; like the USD. EUR EUR Strength a Myth? After climbing to its highest level in 2009 against the USD, the EUR now appears to be losing steam. Last week's jobs data from the US has put a damper on EUR gains. Climbing as high as 1.4330 against the Dollar, and 0.8867 against the GBP last week, the EUR is now trading at 1.3985 and 0.8773, respectively, marking a considerable loss in value in just a short time period. As many analysts are anticipating traders to jump on the band-wagon of USD-buying this week, the EUR will likely continue to see bearish results against many of its rivals. Once it had reached the key resistance level of 1.4300 against the Dollar, economists began to state that the EUR will now face a sell-off period from the failure increased risk appetite to generate the demand for the EUR needed to sustain its recent bullish movement. They now claim that the EUR is going to witness a bearish run against most currency counterparts before continuing its climb. Looking at today we can clearly see that the EUR has very little economic news which will impact the market. Generally speaking, this means that the EUR's downtrends will likely continue throughout the day. This is also true of the remainder of the week as well. With few pieces of meaningful economic data expected to be released, the EUR will not likely regain the strength seen last week for some time. JPY Yen a Primary Currency to Watch this Week Last week's jobs data from the United States has helped generate a confident push in the value of the USD and the JPY felt the sting of this rush just as every other currency. Trading as high as 96.50 against the greenback during early trading sessions last Friday, the USD/JPY currently stands near 98.50 in today's early morning hours. The strength in the US market has helped rally the appeal of the American safe-haven and taken more funds away from the carry-trade safe haven of the Japanese Yen. With an inordinate amount of economic news expected from Japan this week, we could see a sharp increase in trading volatility for this specific currency. As figures such as the M2 money supply, Japanese Final GDP, and core machinery orders are published this week, traders will get a healthy look at the state of the island economy. No doubt the Japanese Yen will be one of the currencies to watch this week! Crude Oil Crude Oil Prices Falling back towards $65 a Barrel Last week's spike towards $70 a barrel for the price of Crude Oil may have indeed been a fluke. As the USD strengthens on positive economic data, the value of Crude Oil has begun to decline as a result. A number of analysts have cautioned that this recent spike in price may be similar to the spike in mid-2008 which played a role in the economic crash which ensued. If oil prices are not brought under control, the impact on the global energy market could severely impede the progress of economic recovery. Driving the price of Crude Oil this week is the value of the US Dollar. Most signals indicate that the greenback is forecast to continue its bullish trends this week which indicates that Crude Oil will likely continue its decline in the days ahead. Short of any significant breaking news which revalues the USD, it is safe to say that these trends are relatively more predictable and stable this week as compared to other weeks. We may have a healthy price target of $65 a barrel in the short-term. Technical News EUR/USD The bearish trend continues with plenty of steam. On the daily chart the bearish momentum is still intact as the pair now floats in the middle of it. The hourly chart also support that notion; however the RSI implies that in the near future the ongoing bearish correction might run out of steam. Traders are advised to take advantage of the pair's bears. GBP/USD The pair is in the midst of a very strong bearish move, as it dropped almost 200 pips for the past couple of days. As of now, the Bollinger Bands on the 1 hour chart are tightening, indicating that a violent move is quite impending, and a bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic is taking place, suggesting that bearish move might extend further. USD/JPY The pair is still range-trading without making a significant breach, and was last traded around the 98.30 level. However, a bearish cross on the 4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic suggests that a bearish momentum is building up. Going short with tight stops seems to be the right strategy today. USD/CHF This pair is in the midst of a downtrend; however, it appears that it is slowly leveling out. The hourlies are showing mixed signals. The 4-hour chart's RSI is showing that bullish correction is imminent. Traders are advised to wait for a clearer signal on the hourlies before entering the market. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, m, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD Dollar Rallies across the Board A larger than forecasted drop in Japanese GDP curbed traders' risk taking yesterday in the forex market. Also hanging over the market was dissatisfaction with the outcome of the G7 meeting and the passage of the U.S. economic stimulus bill. These market events failed to ignite a rally as traders moved into typical safe-haven currencies. Risk appetite was curbed yesterday as Japan reminded the world that global growth is indeed slumping. Japanese GDP declined by 3.3%. This was worse than the forecasted number of 3.2% predicted by economists. The flight to safety sent the USD higher against the Yen. The market was also unimpressed with the end of the G7 meeting as the world's finance ministers failed to lend any support to global currencies. Analysts have been saying higher yielding currencies will get a boost once a turnaround in global economic activity is forecasted. The release of Japanese GDP is a signal that perhaps the worst is yet to come for slowing global economies. Looking ahead to a brighter story today, the release of the TIC long term purchases is due at 14:00 GMT. The release is forecasted to show an improvement from last month's dramatic drop in asset purchases by foreigners. If the TIC fails to reach its estimated target, look for the USD to depreciate to the 1.2750 level. EUR New Interest Rate Cuts are Priced in to the EUR During Japanese trading hours, the EUR/USD made a significant downward move on a poor financial outlook in Europe and the potential for new Interest Rate cuts in the Euro-Zone. The start of the depreciation was due to concerns that Ireland may potentially default on its sovereign debt. However, much of this downward momentum can be attributed to the currency pair breaking the significant 1.2750 mark. Once this support line was crossed, many traders automatically sold off the EUR, helping to compound its losses. The EUR/USD closed down on the day at 1.2649 against the Dollar. Also fueling the losses for the EUR is the potential for renewed Interest Rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). It appears the market has priced into the EUR/USD a rate cut by the ECB in their meeting next month. The question is now open as to how much will that rate cut be? Today we will have the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey. This month the indicator is expected to improve slightly, though the price momentum of the currency pair is working against it. Look for the pair to continue its slide to the 1.2600 level. JPY Japanese GDP Tumbles, Finance Minister Resigns The Japanese economy has now experienced declining GDP for the third consecutive quarter. GDP for the fourth quarter last year fell 3.3%. Exports also fell a staggering 14%. This helped to send the USD/JPY higher by almost 1% to 92.43. In an unrelated event, Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said he will resign from his post. The resignation stems from his unusual behavior at the G7 summit. Some attribute his bizarre behavior at a press conference because he was under the influence of alcohol. This is a serious setback for the Japanese government that has already lost much of the confidence of its citizens to bring the country out of a recession amid the global financial crisis. Forex traders should be looking forward to Thursday's Overnight Call Rate from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). No change is expected to take place with Japan's Interest Rates, but the speech from the bank's governor could provide insight for the future direction of the Japanese economy. Oil Crude Oil Fails to Rally with the Dollar Coming on the heels of a large rally this past Friday, Crude Oil looked for price direction but could only find itself range trading. The price rally as seen from the impending approval of President Obama's economic stimulus plan was not strong enough to carry over into the new trading week. Surprisingly, today's price rally in the Dollar was also not enough to push Crude Oil higher. More fundamental data that may hurt Crude Oil is due to be released on Friday as U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will be reported. It is widely expected for the inventories to increase amid the global economic slowdown. The price level of $30 a barrel doesn't seem so unreasonable any more. Technical News EUR/USD The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory while the hourly chart's RSI is indicating that an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be the preferable strategy. GBP/USD The typical range trading on the 4-hour chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bullish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. In that case, traders are advised to swing in after the breach takes place. USD/JPY A bearish cross on hourly chart's Slow Stochastic implies that a downward correction might take place in the nearest time frame. The 4-hour chart's RSI is floating in the over-bought zone, suggesting that the upward trend might be out of steam. Going short with tight stops appears to be the right strategy today. USD/CHF The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating in neutral territory. However, the hourly Chart's RSI is already floating in the over-bought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, m, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
| by: Forexyard Headlines CitiGroup Bailout and Economic Stimulus; Will they be Enough? The U.S. government is bailing out CitiGroup, a very large investment bank, with $306 billion, and President-elect Obama is hinting at a further $300-700 billion economic stimulus package. This either indicates a future strengthening of the USD or highlights the weakness of the U.S. economy. Traders should bear in mind that the last few weeks have shown that the U.S. Dollar seems to be strengthening as a result of negative U.S data and not the other way around, which results in a type of pricing bubble. At some point the USD will meet an end to its recent bullish run. Will these bailouts be enough to ward off this catastrophe? Economic News USD USD Stabilizes against Major Currencies The past week has proven that the greenback is consolidating at its current levels against the major currencies. However, the USD is constantly attempting to break through these current levels and it appears that a bullish breach seems far more likely than a bearish one. Last week was filled with negative data from the U.S economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped for a third month in a row, landing on -2.8%, proving that consumers in the U.S are in a slump. The Building Permits survey dropped to a mere 0.71 million new permits that were issued in October, dropping for the fifth consecutive month. The housing sector in the U.S is one of the best gauges of the deteriorating economic condition as fewer banks are willing to provide a new mortgage which means fewer citizens are purchasing new homes. Last but not least was the Unemployment Claims figure, which reached 542K individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. However, despite the unfortunate figures, the USD is refusing to slide. As stated here many times before, investors are currently seeing the negative data from the U.S as a pitfall for the leading economies, which will suffer greater from the ongoing decrease in U.S spending. As for the week ahead, a batch of data is expected from the U.S economy. Traders should keep a close eye on four different indicators. First is the Existing Home Sales, which will be published today and will provide additional information on the U.S housing sector. On Tuesday, consumer related data such as the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Confidence report are scheduled and will likely provide a better landscape of the consumers' conditions in the U.S. Lastly, on Wednesday, the Unemployment Claims figure will be announced. Forex traders should bear in mind that the last few weeks have shown that the U.S Dollar seems to be strengthening as a result of negative U.S data and not the other way around, which results in a type of pricing bubble. At some point the USD will meet an end to its recent bullish run. EUR EUR Remains at Low Levels against the USD In the past week the EUR has retained its relatively low exchange rates against the major currencies, and forced most traders to go short. For now it is quite clear that the previous levels of the EUR, such as 1.5000 against the USD, are a thing of the past, and seem highly unlikely to resume in the near future. A few significant economic indicators were published from the Euro-Zone last week, but which only had a limited impact on the EUR as investors world-wide are focusing their attention to the U.S economic condition more than anything else. It can even be said that it appears that the EUR is mainly responding to the Dollar's movements. Looking ahead to this week, the most crucial Euro-Zone economic indicators will be given from Germany. The German economy is considered to be the strongest in the Euro-Zone. An improving condition in the German economy will probably be a landmark in the Euro-Zone's race out of its recent recession, and is one of the key factors which will elevate the EUR. Traders should follow the publications from the German economy and also watch out for any leading political announcements from the region that could have a great impact on the EUR. JPY Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Cut Proves Successful The past week has proven successful for the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to cut Interest Rates to 0.30%. The JPY's intensive bullish trend was halted and the JPY is currently trading at the 95.00 level against the USD and at the 120.00 level against the EUR. The Japanese economic outlook seemed quite disturbing last week. The Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped for the second month in a raw, confirming that Japanese consumers are being more careful with their spending these days. The Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity dropped for the second month in a row as well; pointing out that the Japanese economy has entered a phase of contraction. This week's leading data will be the Preliminary Industrial Production for October, which is expected to decrease by 2.5%, and the Retails Sales survey which is expected to decrease by 0.9%. These figures will act as another proof that the Japanese economy is contracting further and that the JPY might enter a bearish trend against the major currencies in the coming weeks. Oil Will Crude Oil Prices Drop to $40 a Barrel? Crude Oil prices are continuing to slide, breaking recent record lows on a daily basis. It appears that the psychological factor is the strongest reason for the constant drop in Oil prices. For a long time Oil prices were considered to be over-valued. Now Crude Oil seems be the biggest victim of the economic turmoil. Whereas the demand for Oil is only expected to decrease by 2.5%, Oil prices are dropping about 2.5% on a daily basis on average, and have fallen from over $147 a barrel to less than $50 a barrel in the past 5 months. Another reason for the ongoing depreciation of Crude Oil prices is the massive strengthening of the USD, and it has seemed quite clear that if the EUR/USD will drop to the 1.2000 level, Oil prices will probably drop towards $40 a barrel. This week traders should follow OPEC announcements in order to predict any price movements for Crude Oil, as production cuts may be in the works. Also, keep a close look on the EUR/USD as any deep changes in that pair will likely impact Oil prices this week. Technical News EUR/USD The 4-hour chart shows that the momentum is still bullish. However, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) floats near the upper line indicating that the current trend might be closing to its end. On the hourlies, the local bearish correction is already intact. A bearish cross of the Hourly chart's Slow Stochastic validates that correction as well. GBP/USD The daily chart is showing that the pair does not have a distinct direction, as the chart appears to be quite horizontal for the past 10 days. The Bollinger Bands are widened, and the 4-hour Slow Stochastic also provides no clear indication. On the hourlies, the pair has been range trading with high volatility for a while now. Waiting for a clearer sign before entering the market might be the smart move today. USD/JPY The typical range trading on the daily chart continues. Both the RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. The hourlies are also providing mixed signals with no specific direction. Good strategy might be to wait for a clearer signal before entering the market n this pair. USD/CHF There is a very distinct bearish channel forming on the daily chart, as the pair now floats at the beginning of it. A fresh bearish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicates that the bearish momentum will probably continue. The hourlies support the bearish notion as well, and it appears that the pair still has more room to run. Going short with tight stops is a preferred strategy today. The Wild Card Oil There is a very distinct upward channel forming on the 4-hour charts. A fresh bullish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic implies that the bullish correction is quite imminent. The RSI is floating in an oversold territory supporting the notion that there is still more room for the upwards correction. Forex traders can maximize profits by buying on lows and taking advantage of a currently bullish trend. Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, m, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading, Moving Average, World Market |
Fri, 21th of November, 2008 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, m, Market Analysis |
