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Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday. The major bearish outlook remains intact, but for now let’s talk about how far the single currency could rebound to the upside. On h4 chart below we can see price is now traded around 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.3431 – 1.2873 around 1.3000 level. A consistent move above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 38.2% Fibo around 1.3085 even testing 1.3170 region. I see no indication of a technical bullish reversal so far, so although the bias is bullish in nearest term, we have to see the current bullish momentum as a counter trend move. I personally prefer to stand aside for now and will re-activate my bearish mode on a Euro weakness back below 1.2900 – 1.2870 region targeting 1.2700 – 1.2600 support area. Immediate support at 1.2950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2900 – 1.2870.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. However, on h4 chart below we can see price slipped above the bearish channel indicates potential bearish failure and bullish reversal scenario. Price has been making higher lows and highs in the last three days suggests the bullish correction remains strong. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5650 targeting 1.5750/70 area. Immediate support at 1.5550. Clear break below that area could create a false break out scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.5500 – 1.5474 and keep the bearish scenario intact with downside target around 1.5000.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The H&S bearish scenario has failed, but so far price unable to move consistently above 83.40 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 83.40 and break above the bearish channel (red), still targeting 84.40 region. Immediate support at 82.80. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 82.33 but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF finally made an upside breakout yesterday after three days of indecisive movement. The bias is bullish in nearest term as the bullish flag scenario is now confirmed targeting 0.9800 – 0.9850 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.9675. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear testing 0.9600 support area and re-activate my wait and see mode.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 108.25 and closed at 108.10. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing the trend line resistance and 109.00 – 109.50 but note that as long as price stay below the trend line resistance the major scenario remains bearish. Immediate support at 107.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 107.05 and could end the bullish correction phase with 106.25 and 105.42 as bearish targets.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant upside breakout above 129.30 strong resistance area yesterday, topped at 130.34 and closed at 129.99. The bias is bullish in nearest term and my bullish reversal scenario is now confirmed at least targeting 131.40 area. On the downside, another move below 129.30 could be a threat to the bullish reversal scenario as a false breakout scenario could be produced at least testing 128.75 support area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9803 and closed at 0.9817. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9750/30 support area. However, note that we haven’t seen bullish correction since the strong bearish momentum from 1.0256 (a look at daily chart will help) so any upside correction now is normal but overall we are still in bearish scenario with 0.9550 as potential downside target. Immediate resistance at 0.9885. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9987 resistance area.

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