Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday. The major bearish outlook remains intact, but for now let’s talk about how far the single currency could rebound to the upside. On h4 chart below we can see price is now traded around 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.3431 – 1.2873 around 1.3000 level. A consistent move above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 38.2% Fibo around 1.3085 even testing 1.3170 region. I see no indication of a technical bullish reversal so far, so although the bias is bullish in nearest term, we have to see the current bullish momentum as a counter trend move. I personally prefer to stand aside for now and will re-activate my bearish mode on a Euro weakness back below 1.2900 – 1.2870 region targeting 1.2700 – 1.2600 support area. Immediate support at 1.2950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2900 – 1.2870.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. However, on h4 chart below we can see price slipped above the bearish channel indicates potential bearish failure and bullish reversal scenario. Price has been making higher lows and highs in the last three days suggests the bullish correction remains strong. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5650 targeting 1.5750/70 area. Immediate support at 1.5550. Clear break below that area could create a false break out scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.5500 – 1.5474 and keep the bearish scenario intact with downside target around 1.5000.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The H&S bearish scenario has failed, but so far price unable to move consistently above 83.40 resistance area. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 83.40 and break above the bearish channel (red), still targeting 84.40 region. Immediate support at 82.80. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 82.33 but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF finally made an upside breakout yesterday after three days of indecisive movement. The bias is bullish in nearest term as the bullish flag scenario is now confirmed targeting 0.9800 – 0.9850 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.9675. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear testing 0.9600 support area and re-activate my wait and see mode.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 108.25 and closed at 108.10. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing the trend line resistance and 109.00 – 109.50 but note that as long as price stay below the trend line resistance the major scenario remains bearish. Immediate support at 107.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 107.05 and could end the bullish correction phase with 106.25 and 105.42 as bearish targets.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant upside breakout above 129.30 strong resistance area yesterday, topped at 130.34 and closed at 129.99. The bias is bullish in nearest term and my bullish reversal scenario is now confirmed at least targeting 131.40 area. On the downside, another move below 129.30 could be a threat to the bullish reversal scenario as a false breakout scenario could be produced at least testing 128.75 support area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9803 and closed at 0.9817. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9750/30 support area. However, note that we haven’t seen bullish correction since the strong bearish momentum from 1.0256 (a look at daily chart will help) so any upside correction now is normal but overall we are still in bearish scenario with 0.9550 as potential downside target. Immediate resistance at 0.9885. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9987 resistance area.

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Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Jan-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. I still prefer to keep out from the market for now as market still consolidate without clear direction and consistent momentum, but aggressive intra-day traders can still short around the upper line of the bearish channel (now around 1.5620/30) or long around the trend line support (around 1.5400 – 1.5370) with tight stop loss. A clear break above the bearish channel could be a serious threat to the technical bearish outlook while a clear break below the trend line support would confirm the bearish continuation scenario targeting 1.5000. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.5630/50 resistance area. Clear break above that area and violation to the bearish channel could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 1.5474 followed by 1.5400 – 1.5370.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. There are no changes in my daily technical outlook. I still prefer to keep out from the market for now as market still consolidate without clear direction and consistent momentum, but aggressive intra-day traders can still short around the upper line of the bearish channel (now around 1.5620/30) or long around the trend line support (around 1.5400 – 1.5370) with tight stop loss. A clear break above the bearish channel could be a serious threat to the technical bearish outlook while a clear break below the trend line support would confirm the bearish continuation scenario targeting 1.5000. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.5630/50 resistance area. Clear break above that area and violation to the bearish channel could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 1.5474 followed by 1.5400 – 1.5370.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 82.66 and now struggling around 82.80. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario, but as you can see on my h4 chart below, we have a head and shoulders bearish pattern which is a serious threat to the bullish outlook. My bullish mode would be re-activated by a clear break above the left shoulder around 83.40 targeting 84.40 as the H&S bearish scenario would no longer valid. Immediate support at 82.33.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped above the flag formation as you can see on my h4 chart below, but we have no significant upside breakout so far and price made another Doji formation on daily chart. Three Dojis since Thursday is more than enough to show us that price is now consolidating. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario with 0.9750 – 0.9800 remains the nearest bullish target. Immediate support remains around 0.9600 followed by 0.9550.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, but had a bullish correction earlier today in Asian session, hit 107.85. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 108.50 but as long as price stay below the trend line resistance the major scenario remains to the downside. Immediate support at 107.05 (current low). Break below that area could end the bullish correction phase and continue the bearish pressure targeting 106.25 before testing 105.42.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. We are still in bullish correction phase, but 129.30 resistance area has proven itself as a strong resistance. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in critical technical point, where a clear break above 129.30 could be an early signal of bullish reversal at least targeting 130.30 in nearest term. Immediate support at 128.30 followed by 127.50.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, but had a bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session, hit 0.9841. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9800 – 0.9750 support area and I think it’s good to keep the idea that we are in potential big downside correction scenario after hit all time high. Immediate resistance at 0.9880. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in a strong bearish correction scenario with medium term bearish target is seen around 0.9550 area.

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Friday, January 7, 2011
Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2983 and hit 1.2969 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term, testing 1.2920 and the trend line support. From another technical perspective as you can see on my daily chart below, the trend line support is also the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. A clear break below the neckline would confirm the bearish continuation scenario at least testing 1.2700 – 1.2600 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3040. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term. Note that as long as the trend line support/neckline hold, we are still in consolidation phase where bearish continuation scenario is not validated yet. Fundamental focus on the US NFP number today, which is expected to be good, forecast around 159K with previous number only 39K. A better than expected US NFP number could send the Euro lower below the neckline and confirm the bearish continuation scenario while a worse than expected number could prevent further bearish pressure and keep price in range area but I think overall the pressure remains to the downside.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5562 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5445 and hit 1.5435 earlier today in Asian session. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the minor trend line support indicates potential further bearish pressure testing 1.5370/50 and the trend line support in nearest term, but note that as long as price stay above the trend line support we are still in consolidation phase. Immediate resistance at 1.5525/50 area. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5600/50. Fundamental focus on the US NFP number today, which is expected to be good, forecast around 159K with previous number only 39K. A better than expected US NFP number could push Sterling lower testing the trend line support while a worse than expected result could prevent further bearish pressure and keep price in range area, but the major scenario remains to the downside.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still with more upside bias after the violation of the bearish channel testing 0.9750 – 0.9800 resistance area. Immediate support remains around 0.9600 followed by 0.9550. Fundamental focus on US NFP today.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall still with more upside bias after the false breakdown below the trend line support and strong break above 82.33 testing 84.40 key resistance area. Immediate support remains around 82.80. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 82.33 support area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 108.10 and closed at 108.26. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 107.30 before targeting 106.25 support area. Immediate resistance at 109.00 and the trend line resistance (around 109.50). A clear break above the trend line resistance could be a threat to the bearish scenario and potential bullish reversal scenario.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in critical phase with 129.30 as a key resistance area, where a clear break above that area could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario at least testing 130.30. Immediate support at 128.41 (yesterday’s low). Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure targeting 128.00 – 127.50 support area and could be an early signal of bearish continuation testing 126.50 even lower.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 0.9927 and hit 0.9918 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term as a psychological correction after hit historical high and the breakdown below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below testing 0.9860. We already have four consecutive bearish daily candles since the fall from 1.0256 so any upside pullback is normal. Immediate resistance at 0.9987 – 1.0013. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as price would be in consolidation phase both on nearest and medium term outlook.

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Thursday, January 6, 2011
Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3125 and closed at 1.3149. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.3000 – 1.2968 key support area but note that overall we are still trapped in range area as you can see on my daily chart below and need a clear break below the trend line support to continue the major bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.3200. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3250 – 1.3300.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. The bias is bearish in nearest term but overall we are still in consolidation phase without clear direction and consistent momentum. On h4 chart below we can see that during the major bearish move, price made some upside corrections before continue to move lower after broke below some minor trend line supports. Now, price is testing another minor trend line support. Break below that minor trend line support and 1.5450 support area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5370/50 but note that the major trend line support remains a strong support at this phase and the major bearish continuation scenario testing 1.5000 would be validated only by a clear break below that major trend line support. Immediate resistance at 1.5550. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5600 – 1.5650.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we have a big bullish candle as price made a strong breakout above 82.33. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 84.40, which is a key resistance area at this phase. Break above that area could be an early signal of a long term bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 82.80. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 82.33 support area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, violated the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates bearish failure and potential bullish reversal scenario. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9750 – 0.9800 resistance area. Immediate support at 0.9600. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9550.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. As long as price moves below the trend line resistance, the overall bias should be more to the downside. Immediate support at 109.00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 108.60 – 107.80 support area. On the upside, consistent move above 110.22 and trend line resistance could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario and could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday on a broad Yen weakness but so far still unable to move consistently above 129.30. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 129.30 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 130.30 in nearest term even higher as my bullish reversal scenario would be validated. Immediate support at 128.50. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the major bearish scenario remains strong testing 127.50 – 126.50 support area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, slipped below the trend line support as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9900 – 0.9860 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.0013 (current high). Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.0075 – 1.0100.

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Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3431 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 1.3309. Medium bias remains neutral/unclear as price still trapped in range area of 1.3500 – 1.2968. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the minor bullish channel indicates potential bearish bias in nearest term testing 1.3200 – 1.3170 support area but I’m only interested shorting the Euro around 1.3500. Immediate resistance at 1.3370. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3400/50 but only a clear break above 1.3500 would be a threat to the bearish outlook. Overall price still consolidation without clear direction and consistent momentum so do not rush jump into the market.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction yesterday, topped at 1.5644 and closed at 1.5595, made another bullish daily candle. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5700 and the upper line of the bearish channel. As long as the bearish channel hold, the major scenario remains bearish so the upper line of the bearish channel still a good place for a short position, but a valid violation to the bearish channel could be an early signal of a bullish reversal and activate my bullish mode testing 1.6000 region. Immediate support at 1.5550. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5500 – 1.5450 but as long as price moves above the trend line we are still in consolidation phase with a neutral medium bias.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY continued its bullish correction yesterday but still unable to break above 82.33 so far. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but need a clear break above 82.33 to continue the bullish correction, lead us to neutral medium bias testing 82.80 resistance area even higher. Immediate support at 81.70. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term and only a clear break below 81.30 would re-activated my bearish mode testing 80.00.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 0.9515 and closed at 0.9478. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9550 and the upper line of the bearish channel. A clear break above the bearish channel could be a threat to the current bearish outlook with potential bullish reversal scenario testing 0.9750 area. Immediate support at 0.9440. Break below that area would keep the major bearish scenario remains strong testing 0.9350/00 support area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 110.22 but closed significantly lower at 109.26 in a high volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see price made a strong bearish pullback after slipped above the trend line resistance indicates a potential false breakout scenario which could trigger further bearish pressure in nearest term testing 108.60 and 107.30 support area. We are at critical technical point here, where a clear break above the trend line resistance and consistent move above 110.22 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday, topped at 128.57 and closed at 128.01. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 129.30 resistance area which could be a key level at this phase. The arrows as seen on my daily chart below give a good view about two potential scenarios. Overall we are still in a major bearish outlook, but a clear break above 129.30 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario. On the other hand, a failure to break above 129.30 and a movement back below 127.00 would keep the bearish scenario remains strong still targeting 125.50 even lower.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.0027 and closed at 1.0054. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9987 and the trend line support (white). Medium bias remains bullish, but after hit historical highs, we still have potential big downside correction from here. A clear break below 0.9987 could be an early signal of a major big bearish reversal, gives us further confirmation of a bearish short term outlook testing 0.9900, but only a clear break below 0.9550 would give further validation to the long term big bearish reversal scenario. It’s a long way to go and movement could remain tricky with broad Dollar consolidation is still in play.

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Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. There are no significant technical movement so far and overall still ranging between 1.3500 – 1.2968. This trendless/consolidation market is not an ideal condition to have any position. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. Immediate resistance at 1.3400. Clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3500. Immediate support at 1.3300. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3250 (yesterday’s low). I still prefer a bearish scenario, but a clear break above 1.3500 could be an early signal of a bullish reversal scenario and would activate my bullish mode.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The major scenario remains bearish as long as price still moves inside the bearish channel, but need a clear break below the trend line support, which has proven itself as a strong support area at this phase. I only see potential good trades to short around the upper line of the bearish channel (around 1.5700) or long around the trend line support (around 1.5370 – 1.5400) with tight stop loss. Any trades between those area is not “safe” for me, as short term volatility could easily hit our stop loss as market remains consolidating without clear direction and consistent momentum and the risk-reward ratio is bad. I still prefer a bearish scenario and expect a clear break below the trend line support, but until that happen, we have no further validation for the bearish continuation scenario. Be patient.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 81.74 and hit 81.93 earlier today in Asian session. If you look at the daily chart, yesterday’s bullish candle was the first convincing bullish candle since strong bearish momentum from 84.35, so this was a normal bullish correction. However, the bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 82.33. A clear break above that area could trigger further short term bullish momentum and change the medium term outlook from bearish to neutral. On the downside, we need another clear break below 81.30 to keep the strong bearish scenario intact still targeting 80.00 support area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on Daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we may now enter the consolidation phase with potential upside correction, but the main scenario remains strongly bearish. Immediate resistance remains at 0.9395 followed by 0.9440. On the downside, clear break below 0.9300 could trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.9200 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue its bearish bias yesterday, violated the minor bearish channel to the upside as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break above 109.50 testing 110.10/50 and could be a serious threat to the major bearish scenario. Immediate support at 108.60. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 107.30 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong as a false breakout scenario could be produced.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bullish correction yesterday and hit 126.94 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 128.00 as the failure to make a clear break below the horizontal support area could trigger some upside rebounds. If we look at the daily chart, the bullish correction/consolidation move in the last two days is actually a normal correction and the major scenario remains bearish, but unless price make a clear break below 125.50, we may see further upside pullback. Immediate support at 126.33 (current low). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but would give a bearish pressure another chance to test 125.50 support area.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0149 and hit 1.0122 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 1.0115/20 support area testing 1.0050/00. On the upside, another movement above 1.0182 would keep the major bullish scenario strong, testing 1.0228/56 before set to make further historical highs.

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