Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

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Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

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Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Friday, February 26, 2010
Feb-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3451 but closed higher at 1.3549. On h1 chart below we can see that price has slipped above the minor trendline resistance (yellow) indicating potential upside correction testing the upper line of the minor bullish channel. The main scenario should remain bearish but the fact that price already in oversold area may produce some minor upside correction. Immediate resistance at 1.3625 area. Break above that area and violation to the minor bullish channel could trigger further upside momentum but note that overall the pair is still in a bearish mode. After Greek debt and financial problem, traders now concern about the potential economic problem in Spain which could continue to pressure the Euro in longer term. Initial support at 1.3500 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3400 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5189 but closed higher at 1.5263. The nearest bias is neutral but the main trend should remain bearish with technical target around psychological level 1.5000 in longer term and I am still in bearish mode for this pair. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside correction testing 1.5347 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Only violation to the bearish channel could be seen as a serious threat to the current bearish scenario testing 1.5560 area. Immediate support at 1.5189 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 88.79 and closed at 89.09 and corrected higher around 89.23 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should keep the bearish scenario intact with nearest technical target around 88.50 before aim for 87.40 area even 85.00 region in longer term. Immediate resistance at 89.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as we might have further upside correction testing 90.50 area but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish scenario yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price break above the triangle but whipsaw to the downside and now back in the triangle area indicating a false breakout which could trigger some bearish pressure. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone but the main outlook should remain bullish. Immediate support at 1.0750 – 1.0700 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0600 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 119.64 but closed higher at 120.71 and keep moving higher around 121.04 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone area but the main outlook should remain bearish. On h4 chart below we can see that price is testing the upper line of the minor bearish channel. Although the main trend should remain bearish, violation to the minor bearish channel should trigger further upside correction testing 123.00 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 134.95 , closed higher at 135.99 and keep corrected higher around 136.23 at the time I wrote this comment. This fast should keep the bearish scenario intact with technical target around 131.50 area. The nearest bias is neutral as price already in extreme oversold area and show some signs of potential upside correction but as long as price stay below 137.30 I still prefer a bearish scenario today.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8801 but closed higher at 0.8881. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Immediate resistance at 0.8910/20 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 0.9040. Initial support at 0.8801 – 0.8780 area. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish scenario targeting 0.8576 area in longer term.

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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Feb-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3625 as a temporary reaction after The Fed decided to keep the interest rate low but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 1.3539. This fact should keep the bearish scenario intact. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the minor trendline support (yellow). Break below that trendline should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3444 – 1.3400 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3580 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The nearest bias is neutral but the main scenario remains bearish as price still move convincingly inside the bearish channel at least testing 1.5347 before targeting 1.5250 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5450/70 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing the upper line of the bearish channel. I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.76 but closed higher at 90.12. The nearest bias is neutral but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase after the violation of the bullish channel, which indicate bullish failure testing 89.50 even 88.50 area. Immediate resistance remains around 90.50/60 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
As you can see in my h4 below, the USDCHF still trapped in triangle area indicating consolidation phase but still in bullish outlook. I am expecting a clear breakout above the triangle to continue further bullish momentum targeting 1.1000 area. On the other hand, a break below the triangle should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear. Immediate support at 1.0750 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday indicating consolidation. The nearest bias is neutral but I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy since the bullish channel violation indicates bullish failure testing 120.69 area. Immediate resistance at 122.59 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday indicating consolidation but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario after violation of the bullish channel indicates bullish failure, testing 138.23 area before aim for 137.30 area. Immediate resistance at 139.57 – 139.90 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8856 but closed significantly higher at 0.8934. This fact should lead us in no trading zone in nearest term. I still prefer a bearish scenario since the bullish channel violation indicates bullish failure but we need a consistent move below 0.8910 area to continue bearish scenario targeting 0.8780 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8980 followed by 0.9040.

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Wednesday, February 24, 2010
What is the direction of highest probability today? (24/02/10)

Probabilities:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.3710
Bullish Probability above: 1.3710
Significant resistance: 1.3810
Significant support:1.3450

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5730
Bullish Probability above: 1.5730
Significant resistance: 1.5900
Significant support:1.5100

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: not defined yet
Bullish Probability above: 0.9070
Significant resistance: 0.9070
Significant support:0.8580

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.50
Bullish Probability above: 91.00
Significant resistance: 91.50
Significant support:84.80

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Feb-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3691 but further upside correction was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, violated the minor bullish channel, bottomed at 1.3496 and closed at 1.3506. I see this fact as an ending to the bullish corrective movement at this phase and continue the bearish scenario with nearest technical target around 1.3400 – 1.3340 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3550/70 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but the main trend should remain bearish and I prefer sell on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 1.5560, topped at 1.5573 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5393 and closed at 1.5421. This fact can be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant further bearish momentum re-testing 1.5347 before targeting 1.5250 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.5480. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone re-testing 1.5560 but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 89.91 and closed at 90.20. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 89.50 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 88.50. Immediate resistance at 90.50/60 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0848 and closed at 1.0837. On h4 chart below I see interesting facts during the bullish movement where price consolidating in triangles area and then continue the bullish momentum after breakout above the triangles. I am expecting the same scenario with the latest triangle. Breakout above the triangle should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.1000 area. Immediate support at 1.0750/00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear but I still prefer a bullish scenario.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish scenario yesterday, bottomed at 121.56 and closed at 121.85 after a false breakout above 124.80. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential further bearish scenario targeting 120.69 area. Immediate resistance at 122.50 – 123.00 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 138.72 and closed at 139.11. After the violation to the bullish channel the outlook should be a bearish one. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 138.23 area. Immediate resistance at 139.90. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, violated the bullish channel but still not able to stay consistently below 0.8910 area so far. I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase but we need a consistent move below 0.8910 area to continue the bearish scenario targeting 0.8780 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8950 area. Break above that area should lead us into a consolidation phase with expected range at 0.9040 – 0.8910.

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Tuesday, February 23, 2010
What is the direction of highest probability today? (23/02/10)

Probabilities:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.3718
Bullish Probability above: 1.3718
Significant resistance: 1.3830
Significant support:1.3450

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5700
Bullish Probability above: 1.5700
Significant resistance: 1.6000
Significant support:1.5100

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 89.40
Bearish Probability below: 89.40
Significant support: 0.8700
Significant resistance:0.9260

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.10
Bullish Probability above: 91.10
Significant resistance: 92.00
Significant support:90.50

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Feb-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The main trend remains bearish but as you can see on my h1 char below price still move inside the minor bullish channel indicating the bullish corrective movement actually still intact with technical target around 1.3750 area but we need a consistent move above 1.3650 to continue the upside corrective movement. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario as traders’ sentiment for Euro zone fundamental situation remains negative. A violation to the minor bullish channel should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario and continue the bearish momentum testing 1.3530 area before aim for 1.3400.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The main trend should remains bearish and I still prefer a bearish scenario but as you can see on my h4 chart below price has violated the minor bearish channel indicating potential upside correction testing 1.5560 area. Consistent move above that area should trigger further upside correction 1.5650 region. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.5429 area (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario targeting 1.5347 even 1.5250 area this week.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 91.01 and closed at 91.12 after failed to break above the major trendline resistance. This fact should keep the major bearish trend intact but as you can see on daily chart below, actually the bullish correction scenario remains intact as price still moving inside the minor bullish channel. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 90.50 area. Break below that area and violation the the minor bullish channel should be seen as the end of the bullish correction scenario at least targeting 89.50 and 88.50 area. Immediate resistance at 91.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant move yesterday. The main trend should remain bullish but I think we are still in bearish correction phase since the minor bullish channel violated to the downside and now, as you can see on my h1 chart below, price slipped below the minor trendline support with technical downside corrective target around 1.0700 – 1.0600 area. However I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase with buy on dips strategy. Initial resistance at 1.0800. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish correction scenario targeting 1.1000 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after price failed to consistently move above 124.80 area. This fact could be seen as a false breakout scenario which could produce significant bearish momentum testing 123.00 area but as long as price still move inside the minor bullish channel, the bullish correction scenario should remain intact.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant technical movement by violated the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact should be seen as bullish failure and potential bearish scenario targeting 139.80 area. Immediate resistance at 141.70 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that price still move inside the bullish channel indicating the bullish scenario remains intact (I have made some adjustment to the bullish channel). Expected range at 0.9040 – 0.8910 area. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction towards 0.9140 or 0.8780 area. Aggressive traders may short around 0.9040 or long around 0.8910 with a tight stop loss.

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Monday, February 22, 2010
What is the direction of highest probability today? (22/02/10)

Probabilities:


Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.3750
Bullish Probability above: 1.3750
Significant resistance: 1.3870
Significant support:1.3450

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5780
Bullish Probability above: 1.5780
Significant resistance: 1.5880
Significant support:1.5100

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.8940
Bearish Probability below: 0.8940
Significant support: 0.8780
Significant resistance:0.9260

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 91.30
Bearish Probability below: 91.30
Significant support: 90.40
Significant resistance:92.00

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Feb-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.3444 but whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 1.3594 and keep moving higher around 1.3625 at the time I wrote this comment. On h1 chart below we can see that the minor bearish channel has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish correction momentum targeting 1.3750 area. However note that the major trend should remain bearish. Immediate support at 1.3585/30 area. Break below that area should cancel the bullish correction scenario and continue its major trend re-testing 1.3400 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.5347 but closed higher at 1.5452 indicating limited bearish. On h4 chart below we can see that price seems to ready to test the upper line of the minor bearish channel. The bias is bullish in nearest term but as long as price stay below 1.5560 I still prefer a bearish scenario since the main trend should remain bearish and the current bullish momentum should be seen only as a corrective move. Immediate support at 1.5400. Break below that area should be seen as potential threat to the bullish correction scenario re-testing 1.5347 before aim for 1.5250 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The major trendline resistance was proved to be a good resistance area at this phase as price moving lower after touch the trendline on Friday. The trendline area seems to be a good place for a short position with a tight stop loss above it. Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio. Immediate resistance at 92.30. Consistent move above that area could be seen as potential bullish reversal scenario at least targeting 93.75 area. Immediate support at 91.25. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 90.50 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue bullish momentum after touched the upper line of the major bullish channel (blue line), bottomed at 1.0758 and closed at 1.0768. On h1 chart below we can see that the minor bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential bearish correction scenario testing 1.0700 – 1.0600 area. However note that the main trend should remain bullish and the current bearish momentum should be seen as corrective movement. Another movement above 1.0800 area should be a serious threat to the bearish correction scenario and continue its major bullish scenario targeting 1.1000.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant technical movement earlier today in Asian market, break above 124.80 resistance area. This fact should continue the bullish correction scenario target 126.40 area in nearest term. Another movement back below 124.80 should lead us into no trading zone but the minor bullish correction scenario should remain as long as price move inside the bullish channel.

GBPJPY Forecast
As you can see on h4 chart below, the lower line of the bullish channel was proved to be a good support area at this phase as price bounced higher after failed to move below it indicating the bullish correction scenario remains intact at least targeting 143.00 area. Immediate support at 141.40 area. Consistent move below that area and below the bullish channel should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario and continue the bearish scenario re-testing 139.50 even 138.23 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, slipped below 0.8910, bottomed at 0.8877 but closed higher at 0.8982. This fact could be seen as a false breakdown scenario which could trigger significant bullish momentum testing 0.9040 area. Break above that area should lead us into further bullish scenario targeting 0.9140 area. Immediate support around 0.8910/50 region.

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Friday, February 19, 2010
Feb-19 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
After the failure of the falling wedge bullish pattern, the EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3504, closed at 1.3525 and keep moving lower around 1.3480 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.3400 this week. Clear break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Euro towards 1.3100 area in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.3535 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but I prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after false breakout from 1.5800 area, break below key support area 1.5560, bottomed at 1.5498, closed at 1.5522 and keep moving lower around 1.5446 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should trigger further bearish scenario testing 1.5370 even 1.5250 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5560 area (former support). Only break above that area could be seen as serious threat to the bearish scenario.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 90.56 but further bearish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 91.78. On daily chart below we can see that price is now testing the major bearish resistance indicating critical technical phase. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but the trendline resistance should provide a good resistance at this phase and we need a consistent movement above the trendline and 92.30 area to confirm the bullish reversal scenario at least targeting 93.75 area. Immediate support at 91.25 followed by 90.75/60 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0852, closed at 1.0832 and keep moving higher around 1.0864 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should trigger further upside scenario towards 1.1000 area. Immediate support at 1.0800 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone and testing 1.0700 area but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. On h4 chart below we can see that after had a significant bearish movement in major bearish channel, price corrected to the upside, moving in a new minor bullish channel but found a good support around 124.80 area. It seems like price need to break above that area to continue further bullish correction. Immediate support at 122.75 area (yesterday’s low) and the lower line of the bullish channel. Violation to the bullish channel should be seen as the end of the bullish correction phase and continue its major bearish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at the lower line of the bullish channel but closed higher at 142.49. Earlier today in Asian session, price made another downside pressure, re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below the bullish channel to confirm further bearish momentum targeting 139.70 area. Immediate resistance at 143.00 area. Break above should continue the bullish correction scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, but as you can see on my h4 chart below, the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential bullish failure, especially if price able to move consistently below 0.8910 area targeting 0.8780 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9000 followed by 0.9040 area.

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