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Friday, February 19, 2010
Feb-19 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
After the failure of the falling wedge bullish pattern, the EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3504, closed at 1.3525 and keep moving lower around 1.3480 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.3400 this week. Clear break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Euro towards 1.3100 area in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.3535 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but I prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after false breakout from 1.5800 area, break below key support area 1.5560, bottomed at 1.5498, closed at 1.5522 and keep moving lower around 1.5446 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should trigger further bearish scenario testing 1.5370 even 1.5250 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5560 area (former support). Only break above that area could be seen as serious threat to the bearish scenario.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 90.56 but further bearish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 91.78. On daily chart below we can see that price is now testing the major bearish resistance indicating critical technical phase. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but the trendline resistance should provide a good resistance at this phase and we need a consistent movement above the trendline and 92.30 area to confirm the bullish reversal scenario at least targeting 93.75 area. Immediate support at 91.25 followed by 90.75/60 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0852, closed at 1.0832 and keep moving higher around 1.0864 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should trigger further upside scenario towards 1.1000 area. Immediate support at 1.0800 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone and testing 1.0700 area but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. On h4 chart below we can see that after had a significant bearish movement in major bearish channel, price corrected to the upside, moving in a new minor bullish channel but found a good support around 124.80 area. It seems like price need to break above that area to continue further bullish correction. Immediate support at 122.75 area (yesterday’s low) and the lower line of the bullish channel. Violation to the bullish channel should be seen as the end of the bullish correction phase and continue its major bearish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at the lower line of the bullish channel but closed higher at 142.49. Earlier today in Asian session, price made another downside pressure, re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below the bullish channel to confirm further bearish momentum targeting 139.70 area. Immediate resistance at 143.00 area. Break above should continue the bullish correction scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, but as you can see on my h4 chart below, the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential bullish failure, especially if price able to move consistently below 0.8910 area targeting 0.8780 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9000 followed by 0.9040 area.

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