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Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Feb-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above 1.3750, topped at 1.3838 and closed at 1.3795. Technically, the bullish correction scenario indicated the hammer candlestick formation is now confirmed targeting at least 1.3850 before testing 1.4030 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but note that longer term bearish scenario remains intact as long as price still move inside the bearish channel. Another movement back below 1.3750 today could be a threat to the bullish correction scenario testing 1.3650 – 1.3585 support area.

On fundamental side, Euro rally against the Dollar was trigger by hope that Greece will get some help from the EU as rescue package is being prepared. However, how long will this positive sentiment support the Euro is not easy to measure. Another negative news on Greece or the Euro zone could bring the Euro down again, back to its bearish scenario, which is remains intact in longer term outlook.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 1.5745, closed at 1.5716 and now struggling around 1.5707 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5800 area, but we need a consistent move above 1.5707 to continue the bullish correction scenario. Immediate support at 1.5650. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum and could be seen as potential false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.5550 – 1.5500 support area. Break above 1.5800 should continue the bullish momentum towards 1.5900 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after breakout from the triangle, as you can see on h4 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term but I still believe that as long as price stay below 90.00, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Break above 90.00 area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 91.25 area but for me that fact will make the medium term outlook unclear. Immediate support at 89.00 – 88.50 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, fell below 1.0700, bottomed at 1.0608 and closed at 1.0638. This fact should lead us back in range area of 1.0700 – 1.0507 in nearest term but as long as price move inside the bullish channel, the bullish scenario in longer term should remains intact. I think the best strategy is to short around 1.0700 or to long around 1.0507 with a tight stop loss. Another upside momentum above 1.0700 should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0850 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above 123.30, topped at 124.16 and closed at 123.73 as Euro rally on expectation that Greece will get some financial/monetary support from the EU. This fact should trigger further bullish momentum in nearest term targeting 125.15 even 126.89 area. Immediate support at 123.30. Break below that area could be seen as a false breakout which could produce significant bearish momentum testing 121.65 even 120.69 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 141.18 and closed at 140.95. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 141.50 area which is a key resistance level at this phase. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 143.80 area. On the other hand, a failure to break above 141.50 and a movement below 140.50 should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 139.30 support area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.8795 and closed at 0.8785 after break above 0.8717. On h4 chart below we can see that price slip above the bearish channel indicating a serious threat to the bearish outlook. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we need a consistent move above 0.8780 to continue the bullish scenario towards 0.8910 area. Immediate support at 0.8717 area. Another movement below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact back towards 0.8575 area.

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