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Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Feb-02 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday, topped at 1.3938 and closed at 1.3929. I think this is a normal correction and as long as price stay below 1.4000/30 area I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy and 1.3750 are remains a potential downside target this week. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3950. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 1.4000/30 area. Break above 1.4000/30 area should trigger further bullish momentum this week but as long as the bearish channel (see my daily chart below) valid, the bearish scenario in longer term should remains intact. Immediate support at 1.3850. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.3750 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5849 but closed significantly higher at 1.5955. The bearish scenario should remains intact but I think the bias is neutral in nearest term as downside pressure seems limited now. Key resistance level at 1.6000/40 area. Break above that area should be seen as potential threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.5900 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made a significant technical movement by convincingly stay above the bearish channel, as you can see on daily chart below, indicating bearish failure and a beginning of a bullish phase at least towards 91.85 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term. Immediate support at 90.50. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0552 and closed at 1.0561. I think this is a normal correction and as long as price stay above 1.0507 I still prefer a bullish scenario with 1.0700 as nearest target. Break below 1.0507 should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.0350 area. As you can see on daily chart below, the bullish channel indicating a bullish scenario but at this phase we have a lot of “room” in the channel for downside correction so this can be a tricky phase for this pair.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, but still trapped in range area of 126.89 – 124.50 area. I think we area in no trading zone in nearest term, but the bias is bullish testing 126.89 area. Break above that area should be seen as a serious threat to the bearish scenario and trigger further bullish momentum towards 129.00 area. Immediate support at 125.65. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario towards 124.50 intact.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday, closed higher at 144.57. This fact lead me into a conclusion that we are now in no trading zone as direction is not clear for this pair. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 145.45. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 146.22 even 147.20 area. Immediate support at 144.20 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 143.05 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to consistently move below 0.8810 yesterday and whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.8919 and closed at 0.8910. The false breakdown below 0.8810 could produce a bullish momentum but we need a consistent move above 0.8910 to continue the bullish momentum targeting 0.8980 in nearest term, but the bearish scenario in long term should remains intact and only violation to the bearish channel could be seen as potential threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate support at 0.8880. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 0.8810 again.

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