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Thursday, January 28, 2010
Jan-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 1.4000 but price still unable to consistently move below 1.4000 so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term with potential bearish target around 1.3750 this week but we need a consistent move below 1.4000 to continue the bearish momentum. Immediate resistance at 1.4070/90 and the upper line of the minor bearish channel (see h4 chart below). A violation to the upside of the minor bearish channel should lead us back into the range area of 1.4250 – 1.4000/30 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6242 but closed lower at 1.6167. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone now. On daily chart below we can see that the battle now is between the trendline resistance (aqua) and the trendline support (red). A Break on either side should give us clearer direction. Break above the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6456 area while break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.6000/40 area before aim for 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.13 but closed significantly higher at 89.85 and keep moving higher around 90.01 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As you can see on my daily chart below, we have a bearish channel so I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy. Expected range at 90.60 – 89.00. A violation to the bearish channel should be seen as a serious threat to the bearish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above 1.0507 but still unable to stay convincingly above that level. The bias remains to the upside but we need a consistent move above 1.0507 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.0600 – 1.0700. Immediate support at 1.0460. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0350 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation, but I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase with potential nearest target remains around 124.50. Immediate resistance at 126.89. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. Price now go back inside the triangle, lead us back into no trading zone area as direction is unclear in nearest term. However, the rejection to move consistently below the triangle could potentially produce a false breakdown scenario which could trigger a significant upside momentum. Immediate support at 144.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 143.63 before testing 142.00 area. Initial resistance at 146.00. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 147.27 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, break below 0.8980, bottomed at 0.8910 but closed higher at 0.8950. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that price is now consistently move below 0.8980 suggests further bearish scenario towards 0.8810 area this week especially if we have a break below 0.8910 area. Another move back above 0.8980 should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.

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