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Thursday, January 21, 2010
Jan-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
As I had expected, the EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4080 and closed at 1.4104. The combination of triangle and 1.4250 key support level breakdown produced significant power to the bearish pressure. The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.4000 psychological level. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3750 in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.4150. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 1.4250 area but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and stay with sell on the rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by move back below the trendline, bottomed at 1.6243 and closed at 1.6289. This fact should be seen as potential false breakout scenario which should trigger further downside pressure. However we need a consistent move below 1.6250 area to confirm the bearish scenario targeting 1.6113 and 1.6040 area. Break below 1.6040/00 area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling towards 1.5800 in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.6350. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday indicating consolidation. We have no significant technical movement so far, so I am still expecting a range area of 91.85 – 90.15/30. I think the best strategy remains to long around 90.15/30 area or to short around 91.85 with tight stop loss. Break above 91.85 should be seen as bearish failure and trigger further bullish momentum towards 93.75 while break below 90.15/30 area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 88.00 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0461 and closed at 1.0439. The bias should remains to the upside targeting 1.0507. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 1.0360 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 128.40 and closed at 128.67. The bias should remains to the downside but as you can see on my daily chart below this pair seems to have a strong support at the trendline support area (red). A move back above 129.00 area should at least give us a signal that rejection to move below the trendline support could trigger some upside correction towards 130.50 area. However once the trendline support is broken, the bearish pressure should continue its momentum targeting 126.89 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, still trapped in the triangle area. Since we still have no significant technical movement, I think we are still in no trading zone and need a break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Breakout from the triangle should trigger further bullish scenario towards 153.22 while a breakdown below the triangle should trigger further bearish pressure towards 145.50 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9071 and closed at 0.9099 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session traded around 0.9129 at the time I wrote this comment. I think the pressure should remains to the downside but we need a consistent move below 0.9090 area to confirm bearish scenario testing 0.9000 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9170. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

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