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Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
As I had expected, the EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday after breakout from the range area, topped at 1.4555 and closed at 1.4513. However earlier today in Asian session price retreated lower, traded around 1.4490 at the time I wrote this comment, indicating limited bullish momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bullish scenario targeting 1.4600 remains intact as long as price stay above 1.4450 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential further downside pressure testing 1.4450. Break below that area should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.4250 again.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6192 but bullish momentum was limited as price closed lower at 1.6111 and now traded around 1.6098 at the time I wrote this comment. On daily chart below we can see that price is now still struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term but another movement back inside the bearish channel should be seen as bullish failure and a false breakout situation which potentially trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.5900 – 1.5832 area once again. Immediate support at 1.6040. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 1.6200 – 1.6250 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.6700 in long term point of view.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant technical movement yesterday by break below the bullish channel, as you can see in my daily chart below. Like I said yesterday, this fact should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 91.50 and 90.15 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 92.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0130 and closed at 1.0161. On h4 chart below we can see that bearish pressure found good support around 61.8 Fibo support at 1.0143 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase but only break below 1.0143/30 area should be seen as bearish confirmation targeting 0.9917 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0213 followed by 1.0280 area. Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure testing 1.0500 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 134.36 but closed significantly lower at 133.62 and now traded around 133.28 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakout from 133.77 area which technically could trigger a bearish momentum testing the trendline support (red). Break below the trendline should be seen as bullish failure testing 131.30 area. Another movement above 133.77 area should trigger further upside momentum re-testing 134.36 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the trendline resistance, topped at 149.58 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 148.36, back below the trendline resistance. This fact is a false breakout which usually trigger a downside pressure, testing the trendline support (blue) area. Break below the trendline support should be seen as bullish failure.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. This fact should lead us into no trading zone but as long as the bullish channel valid, the bullish scenario targeting 0.9404 should remains intact. Immediate support at 0.9230 – 0.9191 area. Break below that area should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 0.9324 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9404 area.

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