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Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Dec-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4457 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4331 and closed at 1.4353. On h4 chart below we can see that was a case of a false breakout from 1.4420 – 1.4250 range area which usually trigger significant bearish momentum, at least testing 1.4250 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4170 – 1.4130 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4420 – 1.4450 area.


GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5867 and closed at 1.5900. The fact that price is now moving consistently below 1.5920 support area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling targeting 1.5800 – 1.5750 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5920 (former support). Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but overall the sentiment should remains bearish for this pair and I am in short mode. Long position is not recommended at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that we are still in an uptrend as price still move inside the bullish channel without serious threat so far with the trendline resistance (red) area as potential area to be tested by current bullish momentum. However note that we seem to have good resistance around 92.30 – 92.50 area. We need a consistent move above that area to continue the bullish momentum at least towards 93.00 today. Immediate support at 91.50. I am in buy mode for this pair and short position is not recommended.


USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the lower line of the bullish channel, bottomed at 1.0278 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.0362. On daily chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakdown from the bullish channel. Although overall this pair is still consolidating, this fact should trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.0450 area today. Immediate support at 1.0330.


EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 132.59 but the bullish momentum was limited as price closed lower at 132.04. However, the fact that price so far able to stay above 131.75 area should lead us into a new phase of bullish scenario targeting 133.50 area. 131.75 area seems to be a good place for long position with tight stop loss below that level . Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio. Break below 131.75 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Forecast

The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in range area of 145.65 – 146.85 area. If you notice, I have made some adjustment to my trendline support. For me as long as the pair stay above 145.65 area I still prefer a bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a valid break from the range area to see clearer direction.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price had a nice bullish momentum after break above my minor terndline resistance (blue), topped at 0.8991 but bullish momentum was stopped by major trendline resistance (red) and traded around 0.8928 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact bring me to a conclusion that the bullish correction should be over now and price should continue to move in its bigger trend, bearish at least targeting 0.8850 area. Only break above the major trendline resistance should be seen as serious threat to the major bearish scenario.

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