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Monday, December 28, 2009
Dec-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher on Thursday, topped at 1.4417 but closed lower at 1.4353. This fact lead me to a conclusion that price might be in consolidation phase. It’s too early for bullish scenario, but the bearish scenario is not over yet, not until we have consistent move above 1.4420 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4585 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.4250 area. Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario testing 1.4170 – 1.4127 area and keep the bearish scenario intact.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement on Thursday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. However the fact that price still able to stay below 1.6050 area so far should keep the bearish scenario intact with technical target remains around 1.5800 area and I still prefer a bearish scenario. Only break above 1.6050 could be seen as serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.5920 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5850 – 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement on Thursday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay above 90.80 area, I still prefer a bullish scenario at least towards 92.32 area. Only break below 90.80 area and the trendline support (blue) should be seen as potential bullish failure bullish which could produce significant bearish momentum.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Thursday, bottomed at 1.0319 but further bearish pressure was rejected as price closed higher at 1.0387. This fact lead me to a no trading zone. The false breakout from 1.0450 area should trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.0230 area but so far the bearish momentum also seems very limited. I will stand aside and wait for further development. Expected range at 1.0450 – 1.0230.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its moderate bullish momentum on Thursday, topped at 131.86 but still unable to close convincingly above 131.75 area. The bullish scenario should remains intact but a failure to move consistently above 131.75 area and a break below 131.05 support area today should be seen as a false breakout which could trigger further bearish momentum towards 130.05 area. Consistent move above 131.75 should continue the bullish scenario at least towards 132.50 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made indecisive movement on Thursday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving near the trendline support area. Since overall the bullish scenario remains intact, I think we have a good technical set up to place a long position around the trendline support area with tight stop loss below it targeting least 146.80 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.50. Break below that area could be seen as potential bullish failure and trigger further bearish momentum towards 144.85 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish correction on Thursday, topped at 0.8859 and closed at 0.8839. The bearish scenario is in serious threat, but should remains intact. I think we have potential trading opportunity at this phase. Long position if we have a consistent move above 0.8850 (bearish failure) area targeting 0.8950 or a short position below 0.8800 area (bearish intact) targeting 0.8650. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

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