The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum after corrected higher on Monday. On h1 chart below we can see that the ascending triangle bullish correction scenario was failed as price violated the ascending triangle to the downside and had a significant bearish momentum, bottomed at 1.4503 and closed at 1.4536. I always like to see a clear chart patterns because it doesn’t matter whether they are valid or fail, usually give us a clearer direction. Technically this fact should keep my bearish scenario at least towards 1.4450 even 1.4250 this week intact. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 1.4600/25 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum.
On fundamental side, we will have manufacturing and services PMI numbers from the Eurozone which expected to be a catalyst today. Better than expected results should bring the pair higher while worse than expected results should continue the technical bearishness.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, still trapped in triangle area as you can see in my h4 chart below indicating consolidation. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Although I still prefer a bearish scenario, I will keep waiting for a valid break from the triangle before make any decision. Break above the triangle should be seen as serious threat to my bearish outlook testing 1.6400 while breakdown below the triangle should be seen as potential bearish continuation with target remains around 1.6113 area.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant technical move yesterday by slipped above the trendline resistance (yellow). This fact indicating the pressure is more to the upside now testing 90.70 area. However, as you can see in my h4 chart below, price retreated to the downside and struggling around the trendline. A movement back below the trendline could be considered as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish momentum back towards 88.80 area.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum after corrected lower on Monday, topped at 1.0428 and closed at 1.0403. For me, my first bullish target at this phase around 1.0450 is considered reached. Break above 1.0450 area should continue the bullish scenario with a new range area of 1.0450 – 1.0700. On the downside, immediate support at 1.0350. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction towards 1.0230 and could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook. We have CCI divergence on daily chart indicating potential downside pullback.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but as you can see on my h4 chart below, the trendline support still did a good job and maybe a good place to place long position with tight stop loss below it. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 130.72 (yesterday’s low). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 131.75 area. Initial support at the trendline support area. Break below the trendline should be seen as bullish failure which could trigger significant bearish momentum towards 129.00 area.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.05 and closed at 145.87. As you can see on my h4 chart below, the trendline support (red) has been doing a good job keep the bullish scenario intact. This fact should lead us to further bullish scenario towards 146.80 area. However CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 144.85 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but only a violation to the trendline support will cancel the bullish scenario.
AUDUSD Forecast
My strategy worked perfectly yesterday as price had a nice bearish momentum, bottomed at 0.9032, closed at 0.9062 after rejected to move above the trendline resistance and 0.9180 area and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session traded around 0.9001 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish targeting 0.8915 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9030 – 0.9060. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.
