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Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: False breakout, potential downside pressure
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 1.4450, topped at 1.4483 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4346 and closed at 1.4363. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakout which usually trigger bearish pressure testing 1.4250 area. We need the price to close below that area to confirm the bearish scenario testing 1.4127 – 1.4000 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.4400 – 1.4450 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday by break below 1.6040 area, bottomed at 1.5965 and closed at 1.5989. This fact should lead us to a new bearish phase targeting 1.5832 area as bullish scenario has failed. Immediate resistance at 1.6040 area. Break above that should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bearish correction yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that bullish momentum was rejected after touched the trendline resistance, and price slipped below the bullish channel indicating potential threat to the bullish outlook. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bullish outlook is interrupted, but bearish scenario has not confirmed either, not until we have a movement below 90.15 area. Any movement back inside the bullish channel should be seen as a false breakdown which could trigger significant bullish momentum, keep the bullish scenario targeting 94.00 – 94.50 intact.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, but still unable to move consistently below 1.0280 area. This fact prove that we are still in consolidation phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario and expecting a violation to the bearish channel to continue the bullish scenario re-testing 1.0500 before aim for 1.0700. Only a consistent move below 1.0280 can be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, moved back below the trendline indicating potential bullish failure which could trigger further bearish pressure. However, from Fibonacci retracement point of view, as you can see on my h4 chart below, a pullback to the 32.8% area around 131.40 is actually normal. We need a valid break below that area to confirm bearish scenario targeting 130.63 and 129.90. Another movement above the trendline should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 146.11 and closed at 146.41. On daily chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the trendline area indicating critical phase. The bullish scenario, although in serious threat, should remains intact as long as price able to stay above the trendline. Immediate support at 145.75 area. Break below that area should be seen as bullish failure and trigger bearish momentum towards 143.80 area. Initial resistance at 147.30 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 148.95 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that bullish momentum was rejected by the trendline resistance. This fact indicating a consolidation phase with expected range between 0.9190 – 0.9075 area. Break above 0.9190 and the trendline area should continue further bullish scenario towards 0.9230 – 0.9292 area. Break below 0.9075 could be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook testing the bullish channel.

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