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Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Jan-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. We have nothing significant technically so we need to be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The bias remains neutral in nearest term we are in no trading zone. I prefer to do nothing and wait for further development. However, as long as price stay below 1.4250, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Expected range at 1.4250 – 1.4000/30.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6259 and closed at 1.6240. On daily chart below we can see that price is now testing the trendline resistance indicating a critical technical phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term but note that as long as price stay below the trendline, the bearish scenario should remains intact. I think the trendline resistance area gives us a good technical set up and risk reward ratio for a short position with a tight stop loss above the trendline resistance. However, a break above the trendline should be seen as bearish failure and potentially trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.6430 even 1.6700 area. Immediate support at 1.6200. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. This fact lead me back to no trading zone condition as direction is unclear in nearest term. However, as long as price stay below 91.85, I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy. Immediate resistance at 90.50 followed by 91.30. Initial support 89.80. Break below 89.80 should trigger further bearish momentum.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday, but the pair has been making lower highs and lower lows in the last three days indicating consolidation with downside bias. I think we are still in no trading zone. Do not rush jump into the market. Immediate resistance at 1.0350. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0220. On the upside, only a clear break above 1.0507 could be seen as bullish confirmation targeting 1.0600 – 1.0700 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY is corrected higher, traded around 128.11 at the time I wrote this comment after failed to consistently move below 126.89. This fact could trigger further bullish correction, but as long as price stay below the trendline, the bearish scenario remains intact. In fact, I think the trendline area is a good place for a short position with a tight stop loss above it. A good technical set up and risk-reward ratio. Break above the trendline should be seen as serious threat to the bearish scenario and trigger bullish momentum towards 129.00. Break above 129.00 should be seen as bearish failure and a new bullish scenario targeting 130.70 area. Immediate support at 127.50. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario re-testing 126.89 and keep the bearish scenario intact.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.71 and closed at 146.59. If you notice, I have made some adjustment to the triangle. I think we are in no trading zone now and I prefer to stand aside as direction is unclear for me. We need a break from the triangle area to see clearer direction. Immediate support at 146.00 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing the lower line of the triangle. Initial resistance at 147.50. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the upper line of the triangle.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in range area of 0.8980 – 0.9090. So far, we have nothing significant technically. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break from that range area to see clearer direction but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy. Break above 0.9090 should trigger further bullish correction towards 0.9170 while break below 0.8980 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 0.8910.

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