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Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Feb-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3625 as a temporary reaction after The Fed decided to keep the interest rate low but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 1.3539. This fact should keep the bearish scenario intact. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the minor trendline support (yellow). Break below that trendline should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3444 – 1.3400 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3580 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The nearest bias is neutral but the main scenario remains bearish as price still move convincingly inside the bearish channel at least testing 1.5347 before targeting 1.5250 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5450/70 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing the upper line of the bearish channel. I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.76 but closed higher at 90.12. The nearest bias is neutral but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase after the violation of the bullish channel, which indicate bullish failure testing 89.50 even 88.50 area. Immediate resistance remains around 90.50/60 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
As you can see in my h4 below, the USDCHF still trapped in triangle area indicating consolidation phase but still in bullish outlook. I am expecting a clear breakout above the triangle to continue further bullish momentum targeting 1.1000 area. On the other hand, a break below the triangle should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear. Immediate support at 1.0750 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday indicating consolidation. The nearest bias is neutral but I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy since the bullish channel violation indicates bullish failure testing 120.69 area. Immediate resistance at 122.59 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday indicating consolidation but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario after violation of the bullish channel indicates bullish failure, testing 138.23 area before aim for 137.30 area. Immediate resistance at 139.57 – 139.90 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8856 but closed significantly higher at 0.8934. This fact should lead us in no trading zone in nearest term. I still prefer a bearish scenario since the bullish channel violation indicates bullish failure but we need a consistent move below 0.8910 area to continue bearish scenario targeting 0.8780 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8980 followed by 0.9040.

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Thursday, February 18, 2010
Feb-18 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now back inside my falling wedge formation indicating bullish correction scenario failure. This fact should turn the direction back to its major bearish trend targeting 1.3490 – 1.3400 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3650 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear, but I prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 1.5800 area but closed significantly lower at 1.5670. This fact could be seen as a false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.5560/30 area before targeting 1.5250. Immediate resistance at 1.5700 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.37, closed at 91.23 but traded a little bit lower around 91.00 area at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase with potential target around 91.87 area. Immediate support at 90.75 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish correction momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0797 and closed at 1.0780. This fact should be seen as a serious threat to the bearish correction scenario especially if price able to move consistently above 1.0826/50 area, targeting 1.1000. Immediate support at 1.0750. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a false breakout above 124.25 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the false breakout should trigger further bearish pressure testing 121.50 area. Another movement back above 124.25 should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 143.00 area but closed lower at 142.97 and keep moving lower around 142.49 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact could be considered as a false breakout which could trigger further bearish momentum testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Another movement back above 143.00 should continue the bullish scenario targeting 144.77 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, unable to break above 0.9040 resistance area. The bias is neutral in nearest term with potential range area between 0.9040 – 0.8910. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 0.9120 or 0.8780.

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Slipped below 1.4250, targeting 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2456 - 1.5143

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4331 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, break below 1.4250, bottomed at 1.4216 and closed at 1.4253. Looks like the double bottom support failed to prevent the bearish pressure a this phase. This fact should lead us to further bearish scenario with technical target at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2456 – 1.5143 around 1.4127 area which is a key support level from longer term point of view. Break below 1.4127 should be a potential threat to the long term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.4300 – 1.4330 area. We have seen a very strong bearish momentum this month with no sign of significant upside correction.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below psychological level 1.6000, bottomed at 1.5920 and closed at 1.5958. Like I said yesterday, break below 1.6000 area should lead us to further bearish scenario at least targeting 1.5800 this week as the pair is now enter a new phase of bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6000 – 1.6050 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.85 and closed at 91.81. The bias remains to the upside targeting 92.32 area. On my h4 chart below we can see that price had a nice bullish momentum after break above 90.80 area without significant bearish correction indicating strong bullish momentum. Immediate support at 91.50 area. Break above 92.32 area should trigger further bullish momentum at least towards 93.30 this week.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but the fact that price so far able to stay above 1.0450 should keep the bullish scenario intact with target at least around 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700 area. I don’t see significant bearish correction signal so far, so I am expecting further bullish continuation at this phase. Another movement below 1.0450 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term as market might consolidate but overall the bias remains to the upside.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 131.06 and closed at 130.86. The bias should remains to the upside targeting 131.75. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart so watch out for potential bearish correction testing 130.05 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 129.00 area but that will lead me into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Overall the pressure remains to the upside but as you can see on my h4 chart below price still struggling around 146.80 area indicating bullish paused and consolidation. We need a consistent move above 146.80 to continue the bullish scenario towards 148.50 this week. Immediate support 145.90 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction but as long as price move above the trendline support (red) I still prefer a bullish scenario.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8741 and closed at 0.8748. The bias should remains to the downside. I believe, after break below 0.8850 area this pair should continue the bearish momentum at least targeting 0.8650 area before testing key support level around 0.8500 area this month. Immediate resistance at 0.8800 – 0.8850. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction but as long as the trendline resistance (blue) hold, I still prefer a bearish scenario for this pair.

audusddaily

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Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Dec-01 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Limited bullish, price moving in a new bearish channel making lower highs and lower lows

The EURUSD failed to consistently move above 1.5062 yesterday, topped at 1.5083 but closed lower at 1.5006. As long as my trendline support (red) hold and price stay above 1.4850/20 area, I still prefer bullish scenario with 1.5150 and 1.5300 as technical target. However, as you can see on my h4 chart below, price is now moving in a new bearish channel (blue channel), making lower lows and lower highs indicating potential bearish correction. The way I see it, so far the bullish momentum can not recover convincingly since Dubai World created panic last week, so the pair still vulnerable for further downside momentum re-testing 1.4850/20 and the trendline support area again. For me that area remains the best area to place long position with stop loss below the trendline. Immediate support at 1.4950/20. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. On the upside, we still need consistent move above 1.5062 to continue bullish towards 1.5150 today.

eurusd4hchart



GBP/USD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above my minor trendline resistance (blue), topped at 1.6591 but failed to continue bullish momentum and significantly fell to the downside, bottomed at 1.6379 and closed at 1.6444. Technically speaking, we have another example how a false breakout trigger a significant bearish momentum, but price found support at minor trendline support (aqua). The bias is neutral in nearest term, but if price break below the minor trendline support (aqua) and 1.6400 area, expect further bearish momentum targeting 1.6250. On the upside, 1.6600 - 1.6670 and major trendline resistance (red) remains key resistance area at this phase. As long price move below that area, I still prefer a bearish scenario.

gbpusd4hchart



USD/JPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY made another attempt to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 85.85 but closed higher at 86.32 and keep moving higher around on 87.30 at the time I wrote this comment. My technical focus in nearest term remains at the hammer (see h4 chart below) which should trigger further bullish momentum but we need a valid break above 87.50 resistance area to continue further bullish testing 88.80 and major trendline resistance (red). As long as price move below the trendline, bearish scenario in longer term remains intact. I prefer to stand aside for now based on conflicting trend in short and longer time frame and bad risk-reward ratio.

usdjpy4hchart



USD/CHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. Price bottomed at 0.9992 but failed to consistently move below psychological level 1.0000 and closed higher at 1.0005. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as the price able to stay below my trendline resistance (aqua) I still prefer a bearish scenario targeting 0.9913 especially if we have valid break below 1.0000 today. Immediate resistance at 1.0120 area. Break above that area should lead us once again into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

usdchf4hchart



EURJPY Daily Forecast

The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but failed to move consistently below 129.00 support area and now moving higher around 131.04 at the time I wrote this comment. I think the bias should remains bullish in nearest term triggered by hammer candlestick formation testing 131.75 and the trendline resistance area (red). As long as the terndline resistance hold, bullish correction is expected to be a minor trend while major trend remains bearish. However violation to the upside of the trendline resistance should be seen as bearish failure and potential bullish scenario. I will stand aside for now based on conflicting short and longer term trend and bad risk-reward ratio.
eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Daily Forecast

The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 141.02 but closed higher at 141.96 and now continue to move higher around 143.45 at the time I wrote this comment. It seems like the bullish correction scenario trigger by hammer formation remains intact at least testing 144.60 area. Expected range at 144.60 - 140.90. I prefer to stay away from the market for now. The market seems hesitating as technically the major bias remains bearish but intervention threat by the Japanese government still provides long position opportunity every time price attempt to push lower. I think I will stay away for now and wait for further development. I have conflicting trends, intervention threat, and bad risk-reward ratio. So now is surely a bad time to trade for me.

gbpjpyh4



AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a limited bullish yesterday, slipped above 0.9180, topped at 0.9192 but unable to closed above 0.9180 and traded lower around 0.9131 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone now. The bullish correction scenario trigger by hammer formation after touched the bottom at 0.8915 remains intact but need consistent move above 0.9180 to continue bullish targeting 0.9250 and 0.9327. Immediate support at 0.9092 followed by 0.9030. Break below 0.9030 should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 0.8915 area.

audusdh4

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Monday, November 30, 2009
Nov-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EURUSD Forecast: Re-testing 1.5062, false breakout still a threat to the bullish scenario

The pause in Euro rally triggered by Dubai World debts payment delay so far expected to be temporary as after hit bottom at 1.4827, Euro recovered quickly, closed much higher at 1.4985 on Friday and the trendline support still did a good job prevented further bearish attack thus technically keep the bullish scenario intact, especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5062 today, which is technically potential to be tested after rebound from 1.4827. However, note that the false breakout from 1.5062 area (see my daily chart below) also hide a potential bearish view and price could make another downside attempt testing the trendline support and 1.4827 once again, especially if price break below 1.4920/00 area today. No one knows whether the impact of Dubai World is only a temporary panic reaction last week or will continue to shake world stocks market thus could bring the Dollar higher this week. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5062. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.5140/50 area.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a volatile market but indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.6269 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed strongly to the upside, hit the top at 1.6510 and close at 1.6494. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below trendline support (blue, now resistance), price retreat to the upside testing the trendline, which is often happen technically. Although the quick and strong bullish rebound from 1.6269 on Friday is surely a serious threat to the bearish scenario, note that my trendline resistance (red) still valid indicating that bearish scenario in longer term remains intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6600 – 1.6670 area. Violation the the trendline resistance (red) should be seen as bearish failure and potential bullish outlook in longer term. Initial support at 1.6430/00 area. Break below that area should continue bearish pressure re-testing 1.6269 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 84.79 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 87.00 and closed at 86.46. Beside the hammer candlestick pattern which proved to be a good signal of bullish rebound, the Japanese government threat to jump into the market to weaken the Yen seems effective so far. The bias is bullish targeting 87.50 in nearest term as I am expecting market continue to respond further to the intervention threat thus potentially bring the pair higher. Immediate support at 86.30. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum but I will not place a short position under the intervention threat although technically I still prefer a bearish scenario in longer term.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to rebound higher on Friday, topped at 1.0174 but further bullish correction was rejected as price failed to consistently move above 1.0120 and now back below the trendline (aqua) indicating potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term with technical target around 0.9913 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0120 area. Break above that area should lead us once again into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The hammer candlestick pattern gave us a valid bullish correction signal on Friday as market responded to the intervention threat by the Japanese government to weaken the Yen. Price whipsawed to the upside significantly, topped at 130.13 and closed at 129.55 after attempted to push lower and hit bottom at 126.86. I am expecting further bullish momentum testing 131.75 and the trendline resistance area (red, see h4 chart below) as market may continue respond further to the intervention threat thus potentially bring the pair higher. Immediate support at 129.50/00 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum technically but I won’t place a short position under an intervention threat.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The market responded to the intervention threat by the Japanese government and brought the pair higher, topped at 143.47 and closed at 142.66 after bottomed at 139.27 on Friday. Technically, the hammer candlestick pattern, as you can see on h4 chart below suggest potential upside correction testing 144.60 in nearest term. Break above 144.60 could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potentially begin the bullish outlook in longer term at least testing 148.50 area. Immediate support at 142.50. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum but I won’t place a short position under an intervention threat.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The hammer candlestick pattern gave us a good signal of bullish correction on Friday as the pair closed higher at 0.9059 after bottomed at 0.8916 and continue to push higher earlier today in Asian session, traded around 0.9155 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9250 even 0.9327 in longer term but we need a consistent move above 0.9180 key resistance area to continue further bullish momentum. Immediate support at 0.9090. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 0.9030 even 0.8916 area.

audusdh4

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Thursday, November 26, 2009
Nov-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Double top bearish reversal scenario failed, bullish continuation confirmed targeting 1.5300 area.

Finally, we have significant technical break on EURUSD. As you can see on my daily chart below, price break above the peak at 1.5062, topped at 1.5143 and closed at 1.5136. If you remember my technical study on November 12, I said about two double top scenarios: valid or failure scenario. When a chart formation fails, I believe the opposite scenario is in play. If the bearish reversal scenario fails, the bullish continuation is in play. So, whether a chart formation fails or valid, I always have a clue. Isn’t that great? I am in buy mode now, targeting 1.5300 area. We have an important resistance around 1.5150 area and need consistent move above that area before aim for 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.5090 followed by 1.5062. As long as price able to stay above 1.5062, the bullish scenario should remains intact. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart, so watch out for potential minor downside pullback.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above my key resistance 1.6692, topped at 1.6744 and closed at 1.6698. This fact should be seen as bearish scenario failure and potential bullish scenario targeting 1.6842 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential minor downside pullback testing immediate support at 1.6670 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone testing 1.6600 area and direction would become unclear for me.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
As I had expected, the USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 87.20 and closed at 87.32. On h4 chart below we can see how a breakdown below range area at 88.80 gave us a good bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 86.10 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential minor upside pullback testing 87.50 resistance area. Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 88.00 area, but long position is not recommended at this phase.

usdjpy4hchart

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Nov-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Slipped above bearish channel. True or a false breakout?

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above my bearish channel but price retreat to the downside indicating bullish continuation scenario is potential but don’t be too optimistic yet. We only have 2 options regarding the bearish channel break, whether it is a true breakout or a false breakout. If today price made another bullish above 1.5000 area, I will consider the breakout is valid and bullish momentum should continue testing 1.5062, but if today price fall below 1.4920, I will consider it as a false breakout which lead to significant bearish momentum re-testing 1.4850/20 area. If you follow my daily analysis during the last two weeks, you may know that for me only movement above 1.5062 can be considered as bullish continuation scenario confirmation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. Below 1.5062, nothing is confirmed and bearish reversal scenario is still wide open. I still believe so.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
My CCI study gave us a valid signal about upside correction yesterday. Price topped at 1.6647 but failed to stay above 1.6600 area so far, keep my bearish scenario intact with technical bearish target remains at 1.6400 and 1.6250 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario. For me only movement above 1.6692 could be a serious threat to my bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.6550. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum at least towards 1.6475 area. Initial resistance at 1.6647 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6692 and should be seen as potential threat to my bearish outlook. I will be watching any reaction around those levels before make any decision today.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 88.56 but still unable to escape from my range area of 89.40 – 88.80/60 so far. As you can see in my h4 chart below, the lower line of the range area has been tested more that the upper line indicating the pressure is more to the downside. However, this fact also has another consequence that if price keep fail to move below 88.80/60 consistently, the bearish power may exhausted and trigger bullish momentum. The bias remains neutral as price still trapped in the range, and my strategy remains the same, to buy around 88.80/70 or to sell around 89.40 with tight stop loss about 30 pips.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The false breakout I told you yesterday gave us a valid signal of a significant bearish pressure. Price fell below 1.0120, bottomed at 1.0070 but found support at the minor trendline support area (aqua). Today, the battle is between that trendline support and 1.0120 resistance line. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 1.0000 psychological area or back to the upside re-testing 1.0207 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pressure.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, break above my first trendline resistance (blue), slipped above my second trendline resistance (red) but retreat to the downside. Like I said yesterday, only valid break above the second trendline resistance (red) should be considered as bearish scenario failure. The fact now show me that the break is a false breakout which potentially lead to a significant bearish pressure. The bias is bearish targeting 131.75 area. Immediate resistance at 133.59 area (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure and the beginning of new bullish scenario.

eurjpydaily

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday. Like I said, any upside correction is normal after significant break below my trendline support (blue). Now, the fact that price retreat to the downside after fail to move above 148.50 resistance area could be seen as potential ending to the bullish correction momentum and price ready to continue the bearish movement targeting 146.30 before aim for 144.50/60 area. However, break above 148.50 should be seen as potential threat to my bearish outlook.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a significant technical move yesterday, violated my bearish channel indicating potential bearish failure but never really had a convincing bullish momentum so far. I think we have to be careful here and for me the bias remains neutral. Important support level to be watched today is 0.9180 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 0.9276 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.9327 area.

audusdh4

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Monday, November 16, 2009
What is the direction of highest probability today? (16/11/09)

Key events:

10:00 GMT – Eurozone CPI

13:30 GMT – US retail sales

* both of the above are significant fundamentals so I suggest you make sure your exposure is in place before trading before such a big market moving fundamental

Probability Studies:

eur

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4877
Bearish Probability below: 1.4877
Significant support: 1.4877, 1.4750
Significant resistance:1.5050

*the high at 1.5050 must be taken out before this one will be deemed bullish trading condition

gbp

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6735
Bullish Probability above: 1.6835
Significant resistance: 1.6843
Significant support:1.6630

aud

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9317
Bearish Probability below: 0.9317
Significant support: 0.9317, 0.9290
Significant resistance:0.9370

*the high at 0.9370 must be taken out before this one will be deemed bullish trading condition

jpy

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 89.77
Bullish Probability above: 89.77
Significant resistance: 89.77, 90.11
Significant support:89.27

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

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Thursday, November 12, 2009
Nov-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Limited bullish, remains sideways and the double top scenarios

The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, still trapped in 1.5062 - 1.4930 range area. As you might already know, I have been paying attention on potential double top formation since the beginning of this week, as you can see in my daily chart below. Here are two double top scenarios I have in mind:

Valid: Double top is a bearish reversal pattern. With 1.5062/50 area considered as the peaks, failure to break above that area would trigger downside pressure, and once price break below 1.4850 the double top bearish reversal scenario is confirmed. Break below 1.4850 might also a violation to the major trendline support (blue) which potentially also trigger bearish reversal scenario.

Failure: A double top formation considered to be fail if price break above the peaks. I like to see it this way: A bearish reversal scenario failure usually produced the other scenario, bullish continuation with technical target remains at 1.5150 and 1.5300.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6534 and closed at 1.6580. However, the bullish channel remains valid. Although this situation could be a potential threat to the bullish outlook, unless the bullish channel violated to the downside, I think it’s to early for bearish reversal scenario. The circled bearish candle on my daily chart below show that during bullish scenario, we might have significant bearish correction but as long as price move inside the bullish channel, the big picture of bullish scenario should remains intact. Price now is testing the lower line of the bullish channel which is a good area to place a long position with tight stop loss once price break below the bullish channel. Immediate support at 1.6510. Break below that area could be seen as potential bearish reversal scenario. Initial resistance at 1.6550. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped below my 89.40 area, bottomed at 89.28 but this was just a false breakdown before price reverse to the upside and found resistance at my trendline resistance (yellow). Although the bias should remains bearish technically, high volatile market with no clear direction can be seen should keep us away from the market. On the downside, we still need a consistent break below 89.40 to continue bearish scenario targeting 88.80. On the upside, the trendline resistance should be a good resistance that keep the bearish scenario intact.

usdjpy4hchart



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another Doji on daily chart yesterday, indicating indecisive market. As you can see in my h4 chart below, price still trapped in range area of 1.0116 – 1.0033/00. My strategy remains the same, that we need a break on either side of the range area to see clearer direction. I still prefer a bearish scenario but we also need valid break below 1.0000 psychological level. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday. Maybe it’s time to look at a new technical perspective. As you can see in my daily chart below, we have a triangle formation indicating consolidation. The movement started with bigger volume but become smaller as price move near the end of the triangle indicating break from the triangle should be imminent. I still prefer a bullish scenario thus expect a breakout from the triangle. Until we have break from the triangle, we are still in no trading zone. Immediate support at 133.80. Break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure. Initial resistance at 135.34. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.

eurjpydaily

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. However, if you look at the daily chart below actually we still have no clear direction so far as price still move between trendline support (blue) and resistance (red). If you notice, I have made little adjustment to those trendlines. We are still in no trading zone but I am expecting break on either side to see clearer direction. Immediate support at 148.50. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum and scenario. Initial resistance at 149.50 followed by 150.15.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had indecisive movement yesterday. The pair slipped above 0.9327 but failed to closed above it. However, earlier today in Asian market the pair made another break above 0.9327. This fact indicating potential further bullish scenario targeting 0.9400 and 0.9500. A move back below 0.9327 should lead us into no trading zone as it will indicate hesitation and direction would become unclear for me.

audusdh4

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