The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above my bearish channel but price retreat to the downside indicating bullish continuation scenario is potential but don’t be too optimistic yet. We only have 2 options regarding the bearish channel break, whether it is a true breakout or a false breakout. If today price made another bullish above 1.5000 area, I will consider the breakout is valid and bullish momentum should continue testing 1.5062, but if today price fall below 1.4920, I will consider it as a false breakout which lead to significant bearish momentum re-testing 1.4850/20 area. If you follow my daily analysis during the last two weeks, you may know that for me only movement above 1.5062 can be considered as bullish continuation scenario confirmation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. Below 1.5062, nothing is confirmed and bearish reversal scenario is still wide open. I still believe so.
GBPUSD Forecast:
My CCI study gave us a valid signal about upside correction yesterday. Price topped at 1.6647 but failed to stay above 1.6600 area so far, keep my bearish scenario intact with technical bearish target remains at 1.6400 and 1.6250 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario. For me only movement above 1.6692 could be a serious threat to my bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.6550. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum at least towards 1.6475 area. Initial resistance at 1.6647 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6692 and should be seen as potential threat to my bearish outlook. I will be watching any reaction around those levels before make any decision today.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 88.56 but still unable to escape from my range area of 89.40 – 88.80/60 so far. As you can see in my h4 chart below, the lower line of the range area has been tested more that the upper line indicating the pressure is more to the downside. However, this fact also has another consequence that if price keep fail to move below 88.80/60 consistently, the bearish power may exhausted and trigger bullish momentum. The bias remains neutral as price still trapped in the range, and my strategy remains the same, to buy around 88.80/70 or to sell around 89.40 with tight stop loss about 30 pips.
USDCHF Forecast
The false breakout I told you yesterday gave us a valid signal of a significant bearish pressure. Price fell below 1.0120, bottomed at 1.0070 but found support at the minor trendline support area (aqua). Today, the battle is between that trendline support and 1.0120 resistance line. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 1.0000 psychological area or back to the upside re-testing 1.0207 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pressure.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, break above my first trendline resistance (blue), slipped above my second trendline resistance (red) but retreat to the downside. Like I said yesterday, only valid break above the second trendline resistance (red) should be considered as bearish scenario failure. The fact now show me that the break is a false breakout which potentially lead to a significant bearish pressure. The bias is bearish targeting 131.75 area. Immediate resistance at 133.59 area (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure and the beginning of new bullish scenario.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday. Like I said, any upside correction is normal after significant break below my trendline support (blue). Now, the fact that price retreat to the downside after fail to move above 148.50 resistance area could be seen as potential ending to the bullish correction momentum and price ready to continue the bearish movement targeting 146.30 before aim for 144.50/60 area. However, break above 148.50 should be seen as potential threat to my bearish outlook.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made a significant technical move yesterday, violated my bearish channel indicating potential bearish failure but never really had a convincing bullish momentum so far. I think we have to be careful here and for me the bias remains neutral. Important support level to be watched today is 0.9180 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 0.9276 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.9327 area.
