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Thursday, November 12, 2009
Nov-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Limited bullish, remains sideways and the double top scenarios

The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, still trapped in 1.5062 - 1.4930 range area. As you might already know, I have been paying attention on potential double top formation since the beginning of this week, as you can see in my daily chart below. Here are two double top scenarios I have in mind:

Valid: Double top is a bearish reversal pattern. With 1.5062/50 area considered as the peaks, failure to break above that area would trigger downside pressure, and once price break below 1.4850 the double top bearish reversal scenario is confirmed. Break below 1.4850 might also a violation to the major trendline support (blue) which potentially also trigger bearish reversal scenario.

Failure: A double top formation considered to be fail if price break above the peaks. I like to see it this way: A bearish reversal scenario failure usually produced the other scenario, bullish continuation with technical target remains at 1.5150 and 1.5300.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6534 and closed at 1.6580. However, the bullish channel remains valid. Although this situation could be a potential threat to the bullish outlook, unless the bullish channel violated to the downside, I think it’s to early for bearish reversal scenario. The circled bearish candle on my daily chart below show that during bullish scenario, we might have significant bearish correction but as long as price move inside the bullish channel, the big picture of bullish scenario should remains intact. Price now is testing the lower line of the bullish channel which is a good area to place a long position with tight stop loss once price break below the bullish channel. Immediate support at 1.6510. Break below that area could be seen as potential bearish reversal scenario. Initial resistance at 1.6550. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped below my 89.40 area, bottomed at 89.28 but this was just a false breakdown before price reverse to the upside and found resistance at my trendline resistance (yellow). Although the bias should remains bearish technically, high volatile market with no clear direction can be seen should keep us away from the market. On the downside, we still need a consistent break below 89.40 to continue bearish scenario targeting 88.80. On the upside, the trendline resistance should be a good resistance that keep the bearish scenario intact.

usdjpy4hchart



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another Doji on daily chart yesterday, indicating indecisive market. As you can see in my h4 chart below, price still trapped in range area of 1.0116 – 1.0033/00. My strategy remains the same, that we need a break on either side of the range area to see clearer direction. I still prefer a bearish scenario but we also need valid break below 1.0000 psychological level. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday. Maybe it’s time to look at a new technical perspective. As you can see in my daily chart below, we have a triangle formation indicating consolidation. The movement started with bigger volume but become smaller as price move near the end of the triangle indicating break from the triangle should be imminent. I still prefer a bullish scenario thus expect a breakout from the triangle. Until we have break from the triangle, we are still in no trading zone. Immediate support at 133.80. Break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure. Initial resistance at 135.34. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.

eurjpydaily

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. However, if you look at the daily chart below actually we still have no clear direction so far as price still move between trendline support (blue) and resistance (red). If you notice, I have made little adjustment to those trendlines. We are still in no trading zone but I am expecting break on either side to see clearer direction. Immediate support at 148.50. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum and scenario. Initial resistance at 149.50 followed by 150.15.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had indecisive movement yesterday. The pair slipped above 0.9327 but failed to closed above it. However, earlier today in Asian market the pair made another break above 0.9327. This fact indicating potential further bullish scenario targeting 0.9400 and 0.9500. A move back below 0.9327 should lead us into no trading zone as it will indicate hesitation and direction would become unclear for me.

audusdh4

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