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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Nov-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Consolidating, bullish scenario remains intact

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4937 but closed higher at 1.4983. I think the pair is now consolidating after significant bullish on Monday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish scenario should remains intact, at least indicated by a bullish channel (yellow) as you can see in my h4 chart below. Immediate support is seen at 1.4930 and lower line of the bullish channel. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.4850 and the major trendline resistance area (blue) and could be a potential threat to my bullish outlook. I still prefer and expect a bullish scenario for this week but I think we need a clear break above 1.5062 to confirm bullish scenario towards 1.5150 and 1.5300. Expected range at 1.4930 – 1.5062.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was also indecisive yesterday, attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.6599 but further downside pressure was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.6735. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we have a nice bullish channel on daily chart below indicating a bullish scenario with technical target 1.7042 remains intact. Immediate support at 1.6680. Break below that area should trigger further downside pressure re-testing 1.6599 area. Initial resistance at 1.6842. Break above that area should lead us to further bullish momentum towards 1.7042 area.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
We had a volatile market yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, we had an intense battle around my new trendline support area (yellow) but it seems like bearish side is in good position now as price able to stay below the trendline (now resistance). The bias is bearish in nearest term but watch out for potential good intermediate support at this phase around 89.40 area. We need a consistent move below that area to confirm bearish scenario targeting 88.80 area. Immediate resistance remains at 90.20/50 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
Similar to EURUSD and GBPUSD, the USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, after break below the trendline resistance and 1.0166 area price is now consolidating within new expected range at 1.0116 – 1.0033/00. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
My technical study didn’t work very well yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher but only peaked at 135.36 (30 pips lower from my long target) before whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 134.12 and closed at 134.54. As you can see in my daily chart below, price is now re-testing the trendline support indicating critical technical situation. I still prefer a bullish scenario but if we have another movement below the trendline, the bias would be unclear for me this week. Immediate support at 134.00 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure towards re-testing 133.35. Initial resistance at 135.36 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.

eurjpydaily

GBPJPY Forecast
My technical study and strategy was completely a mess yesterday. As you can see on daily chart below, we had a bearish momentum as price once again move below my trendline support but actually downside momentum was also limited as price bounce higher and now struggling around the trendline area (red). I think we are in no trading zone now since I see no clear direction. Immediate resistance at 150.80 – 151.00 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 153.22 area. Initial support at 149.00. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
Yesterday, I said that we need a break above 0.9327 area to confirm bullish scenario, and I was right. The pair failed (so far) to break above that area and had indecisive movement. I still prefer a bullish scenario but once again, we need a clear break above 0.9327 to confirm bullish scenario targeting 0.9400 and 0.9500. Immediate support at remains at 0.9250 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

audusdh4

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