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Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Nov-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Re-testing 1.5062, potential double top formation

As I had expected, the EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5019 and closed at 1.4995. The bias should remains bullish in nearest term re-testing October 26 high, 1.5062. I will be watching any reaction around this area since technically we could have a double top formation if price reject to move above that area, as you can see in my daily chart below. However, a breakout above that area should continue the upside scenario targeting 1.5150 area as a bearish correction/reversal scenario failure could potentially produce the other scenario: bullish continuation. Immediate support is seen at 1.4950 followed by 1.4850 area.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
As I had expected, the GBPUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, hit my long target at 1.6740, topped at 1.6842 but closed lower at 1.6757. We have seen in the last several days, how a triangle, a simple classical technical tool can be used effectively to gain some profitable trades as you can see on my daily chart below.

gbpusddaily

On h4 chart below, from a Fibonacci retracement point of view, the pullback from 1.6842 to 1.6704 yesterday is actually a normal correction as 1.6704 area is the 23.6% Fibo retracement area of 1.6261 – 1.6842 and now price seem to reject to move below that area, indicating potential further bullish continuation. However, of course we need a clear break above 1.6842 to confirm bullish continuation scenario with 1.7042 as potential technical target. Break below 1.6704 should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
My technical study worked fine yesterday. Oversold CCI I said yesterday gave us a valid upside signal testing the trendline resistance area (red), topped at 90.25 before moving lower and closed at 89.96. I think we are still in no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. As you can see on my h4 chart below, I have a new trendline support (yellow) which could be an important support at this phase especially if price break below that trendline support, confirm my bearish scenario targeting 88.80 area. Immediate resistance at 90.20/50.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
My technical strategy worked perfectly yesterday. As you can see on my h4 chart below, we had a nice bearish movement, bottomed at 1.0053 after my trendline support (red) violated to the downside. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but I will stay away for now since we are faced with 1.0000 psychological support area. I need a clear movement below 1.0000 area to confirm that we are in a new stage of bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.0120 and 1.0166 area. As long as the pair stay below that area expect further downside pressure.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. With all the noises from ECB and The Fed are now gone, I believe that yesterday’s bullish momentum is the real direction. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 135.70/90 area. Immediate support at 134.50 and the trendline support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

eurjpydaily

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair is now convincingly traded above the trendline resistance (red, now support) indicating potential further bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 153.22 area. Immediate support at 150.20. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9307 and closed at 0.9305. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but watch out for a potential double top formation around 0.9327 area. We need a breakout above that area to confirm bullish continuation targeting at least 0.9400 before aim for 0.9500 as usually a bearish correction/reversal scenario failure lead to the other scenario: bullish continuation. Immediate support at 0.9250. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

audusdh4

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