What a surprise we had yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, after violated the bearish channel, actually this pair had a nice bullish momentum before Bernanke dropped the bomb with his pessimistic comment about economy recovery by saying this words: “Today, financial conditions are considerably better than they were then, but significant economic challenges remain. The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak, and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible” Euro fell after that comment, hit the bottom at 1.4879 as risk aversion came back. I didn’t expected this negative tone but another surprise happened as the Euro recovered quickly, peaked at 1.5015 and closed at 1.4967. I thought that Bernanke’s pessimistic tone will support technical bearish reversal scenario, but it didn’t. I was wrong, but for me nothing is confirmed yet for now. To read Bernanke’s full comment, follow this link below:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091116a.htm
Regardless of mixed reaction in the market on Bernanke’s words, technically, the fact that this pair still able to stay above 1.4950/60 right now should continue the pressure on Dollar re-testing 1.5062 today. However for me, only movement above 1.5062 could be seen as bullish continuation confirmation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.4920 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing key support 1.4850/20 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
As I had expected, the GBPUSD continues it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6876 and closed at 1.6820. The bias should remains bullish in nearest term targeting 1.6930 area before aim for 1.7042. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside pullback testing 1.6842 support area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure and lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.
USDJPY Forecast:
As I had expected, after break below 89.40 support area, the USDJPY continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, hit my short target at 88.80, bottomed at 88.74 but closed a little bit higher at 89.13. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I am expecting further bearish pressure targeting 88.00. However, we need a consistent move below 88.80 to continue the bearish scenario. Initial resistance at 89.40 (former support). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum, threat my bearish outlook and lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.
USDCHF Forecast
Similar to the EURUSD, USDCHF was technically a mess after market mixed reaction on Bernanke’s comment yesterday. However, so far the pair still able to stay below 1.0120 area indicating the pressure should remain to the downside testing psychological level 1.0000/33. Break below that area should lead us into a new stage of bearish scenario at least towards 0.9880 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0120. Break above that area should be seen as bearish rejection and lead us into no trading zone.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. The pair failed to make a bullish momentum, but so far the 133.10 support area still hold. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but like I said yesterday, as long as the pair stay above the trendline support (red), I still prefer a bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 134.00 and the trendline resistance area (blue). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum at least targeting 135.00 area.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, still trapped between two trendlines (triangle) as you can see in my daily chart below. I prefer a bullish scenario, but I think we are still in no trading zone area and need a break on either side to find clear direction. Be patient and do not rush jumping into the market at this phase. Immediate support at 149.10 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 148.24 area and could be a could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook. Initial resistance at 150.35. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the trendline resistance (blue) area.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, but technically the pair able to stay above 0.9327 area so I think the pressure remains to the upside with technical target at 0.9400 – 0.9500 area. Only break below 0.9327 area could be seen as serious threat to my bullish outlook, re-testing 0.9180 area.
