In my weekly summary on Saturday, I said that in order to complete the valid double top formation, the second bearish channel (yellow) must remain valid. Well, looks like the channel has been violated to the upside earlier today in Asian session as you can see in my h4 chart below. This fact should diminish the double top bearish reversal scenario and the pressure is now more to the upside, but it’s too early to say that double top bearish reversal scenario is over. I think this pair need consistent move above 1.4950/60 to continue upside pressure re-testing 1.5062. A failure to do so could be considered as a false breakout and trigger significant bearish momentum. Only break above 1.5062 should be seen as double top scenario failure and could lead to bullish continuation scenario targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300 area. On the downside, key support level remains at 1.4850/20 area. Break below that area should keep the valid double top scenario intact towards 1.4625 and 1.4450 area.
GBPUSD Forecast:
After rejection to move below the bullish channel on Thursday, GBPUSD had bullish momentum on Friday, as you can see in my h4 chart below. This fact should keep the bullish scenario intact and the bias is more to the upside now re-testing 1.6842 in nearest term. Break above that area should continue the bullish scenario re-testing 1.7042 area. Immediate support at 1.6692. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as price might attempt to test the lower line of the bullish channel once again.
USDJPY Forecast:
My false breakout strategy worked perfectly on Friday, as USDJPY had a nice bearish momentum, bottomed at 89.45 and closed at 89.64. The bias is bearish in nearest term with 88.80 as nearest technical target, but we need a valid break below 89.40 support area. As you can see in my h4 chart below, that support area is a potential obstacle to the bearish pressure, just like what happened on November 11 (red circle) when price retreat significantly to the upside after made a false breakdown from that area. Immediate resistance at 90.00/20 area. Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure and lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.
USDCHF Forecast
My concern about potential false breakout if price failed to consistently stay above the trendline resistance (red) which lead to bearish momentum became a fact on Friday, as we had a significant bearish momentum, bottomed 1.0101 and closed at 1.0125 on Friday. Earlier today in Asian session the pair keep moving lower, traded around 1.0090 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0000 psychological level. Immediate resistance at 1.0150. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 132.84 but closed higher at 133.60. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish pressure was rejected by the trendline support (red) and price now bounce to the upside. As long as the trendline support hold, the bias is more to the upside testing 135.00 in nearest term. Immediate support at 133.10 area. Break below that area should trigger further downside pressure testing the trendline support area.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made indecisive movement on Friday. As you can see on my daily chart below, price still moving between trendline support and resistance (triangle) but I hope break on either side is imminent so we can see clearer direction. Breakout to the upside should confirm bullish scenario with technical target at least at 153.22. Breakdown to the downside should trigger bearish momentum at least towards 148.24 even 146.36 area.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish on Friday. On h4 chart below, we can see that again, price break above 0.9327. Technical bias is bullish in nearest term with 0.9400 – 0.9500 as potential target. However, false breakout on Thursday should be our concern as it might happen again this time. We need consistent move above 0.9370 area to confirm the bullish continuation scenario. The situation could be very tricky at this phase so do not rush jump into the market. Another break below 0.9327 should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.
