The EURUSD made another rejection to consistently move below 1.4820 key support level on Friday. This fact surely keep the major bullish scenario intact, but the bearish reversal scenario warning showed by double top pattern with peaks around 1.5062 area is also still valid and the bias should remains neutral as market is consolidating now. Overall, this pair has been indecisive in the last two weeks and we need a significant movement above 1.5062 to continue the bullish continuation towards 1.5150 and 1.5300 or consistent move below 1.4820/00 area to confirm further bearish pressure towards 1.4625 and 1.4450 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4965 and the upper line of my bearish channel, which vulnerable to be tested today after rejection below 1.4820. A violation to the bearish channel should be seen as potential threat to the bearish reversal scenario re-testing 1.5062 area.
On fundamental side, we will have many news from Euro zone today (manufacturing and services PMI) and Trichet is going to make another statement which potentially move the market significantly, especially if we have big surprise whether in the numbers or Trichet’s comment. We know the he support a strong Dollar, but the market respond has been mixed so far.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6459 and closed at 1.6501. My bearish scenario is now confirmed with 1.6400 and 1.6250 as technical target. However we have some upside rebound earlier today in Asian session and CCI in oversold area and about to cross the -100 line up so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.6600. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as bullish correction could continue testing 1.6692 area. Immediate support at 1.6459 (Friday’s low) Break below that area should trigger further bearish continuation momentum.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY still trapped in range area of 89.40 – 88.80/60 area on Friday indicating consolidation. The bias remains neutral and my strategy remains the same, which is to buy around 88.80/70 area or to sell around 89.40 with a tight stop loss. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 90.50 or 88.00 area. CCI in neutral area in both h1 and h4 chart.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF still trapped in range area of 1.0120 – 1.0207 on Friday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, price made a bearish momentum after false breakout above 1.0207 area. This fact should keep the bias remains neutral but the false breakout could lead to further downside pressure testing 1.0120 support area. We need a valid break below 1.0120 or above 1.0207 to see clearer direction towards 1.0000/33 or 1.0337 area.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 131.78 and closed at 132.03 but we had some upside rebound earlier today in Asian session as the pair traded higher around 132.50 at the time I wrote this comment. The bearish scenario should remains intact and at least we have two trendline resistance (blue and red) that provide good resistance area to keep my bearish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term and the pair is now testing the blue trendline resistance. Break above that trendline should continue further upside correction testing the red trendline resistance. As long as the red trendline resistance hold, I still prefer a bearish scenario with technical target at least around 131.01 area. Immediate resistance at 132.60/80. Break above that area should trigger further upside momentum towards 133.20 area. Initial support at 131.50. Break below that area should continue bearish momentum testing 131.01 area before aim for 129.00.
GBPJPY Forecast
As I had expected, the GBPJPY made another bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 146.43 and closed at 146.60. We had some upside correction earlier today in Asian session, which is normal after two days of significant bearish momentum. Immediate resistance at 147.30/50 area. Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 148.50. As long as the pair stay below 148.50 I still prefer a bearish scenario with technical target around 144.50 area. Immediate support at 145.80/90. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, hit my short target at 0.9090, bottomed at 0.9059 but closed higher at 0.9143 and now keep rebounding higher around 0.9176 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we have a bearish channel indicating bearish scenario and the pair can not consistently stay above 0.9180 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and as long as the bearish channel valid, bearish scenario targeting 0.9030 even 0.8915 should remains intact. Only violation to the bearish channel should be seen as bearish scenario failure re-testing 0.9327 area again. Immediate support at 0.9059 (Friday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.
