Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Dec-01 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
| EUR/USD Forecast: Limited bullish, price moving in a new bearish channel making lower highs and lower lows The EURUSD failed to consistently move above 1.5062 yesterday, topped at 1.5083 but closed lower at 1.5006. As long as my trendline support (red) hold and price stay above 1.4850/20 area, I still prefer bullish scenario with 1.5150 and 1.5300 as technical target. However, as you can see on my h4 chart below, price is now moving in a new bearish channel (blue channel), making lower lows and lower highs indicating potential bearish correction. The way I see it, so far the bullish momentum can not recover convincingly since Dubai World created panic last week, so the pair still vulnerable for further downside momentum re-testing 1.4850/20 and the trendline support area again. For me that area remains the best area to place long position with stop loss below the trendline. Immediate support at 1.4950/20. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. On the upside, we still need consistent move above 1.5062 to continue bullish towards 1.5150 today.
GBP/USD Daily Forecast The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above my minor trendline resistance (blue), topped at 1.6591 but failed to continue bullish momentum and significantly fell to the downside, bottomed at 1.6379 and closed at 1.6444. Technically speaking, we have another example how a false breakout trigger a significant bearish momentum, but price found support at minor trendline support (aqua). The bias is neutral in nearest term, but if price break below the minor trendline support (aqua) and 1.6400 area, expect further bearish momentum targeting 1.6250. On the upside, 1.6600 - 1.6670 and major trendline resistance (red) remains key resistance area at this phase. As long price move below that area, I still prefer a bearish scenario.
USD/JPY Daily Forecast The USDJPY made another attempt to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 85.85 but closed higher at 86.32 and keep moving higher around on 87.30 at the time I wrote this comment. My technical focus in nearest term remains at the hammer (see h4 chart below) which should trigger further bullish momentum but we need a valid break above 87.50 resistance area to continue further bullish testing 88.80 and major trendline resistance (red). As long as price move below the trendline, bearish scenario in longer term remains intact. I prefer to stand aside for now based on conflicting trend in short and longer time frame and bad risk-reward ratio.
USD/CHF Daily Forecast The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. Price bottomed at 0.9992 but failed to consistently move below psychological level 1.0000 and closed higher at 1.0005. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as the price able to stay below my trendline resistance (aqua) I still prefer a bearish scenario targeting 0.9913 especially if we have valid break below 1.0000 today. Immediate resistance at 1.0120 area. Break above that area should lead us once again into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.
EURJPY Daily Forecast The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but failed to move consistently below 129.00 support area and now moving higher around 131.04 at the time I wrote this comment. I think the bias should remains bullish in nearest term triggered by hammer candlestick formation testing 131.75 and the trendline resistance area (red). As long as the terndline resistance hold, bullish correction is expected to be a minor trend while major trend remains bearish. However violation to the upside of the trendline resistance should be seen as bearish failure and potential bullish scenario. I will stand aside for now based on conflicting short and longer term trend and bad risk-reward ratio.  GBPJPY Daily Forecast The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 141.02 but closed higher at 141.96 and now continue to move higher around 143.45 at the time I wrote this comment. It seems like the bullish correction scenario trigger by hammer formation remains intact at least testing 144.60 area. Expected range at 144.60 - 140.90. I prefer to stay away from the market for now. The market seems hesitating as technically the major bias remains bearish but intervention threat by the Japanese government still provides long position opportunity every time price attempt to push lower. I think I will stay away for now and wait for further development. I have conflicting trends, intervention threat, and bad risk-reward ratio. So now is surely a bad time to trade for me.
AUDUSD Forecast The AUDUSD had a limited bullish yesterday, slipped above 0.9180, topped at 0.9192 but unable to closed above 0.9180 and traded lower around 0.9131 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone now. The bullish correction scenario trigger by hammer formation after touched the bottom at 0.8915 remains intact but need consistent move above 0.9180 to continue bullish targeting 0.9250 and 0.9327. Immediate support at 0.9092 followed by 0.9030. Break below 0.9030 should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 0.8915 area.
Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Indicator, Forex Lessons, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
posted by Matbank at 8:30 AM
