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Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Monday, August 18, 2008
18-Aug-2008 Daily Forex Analysisi
by ForexYard

EURUSDAfter reaching the low of 1.4658 during the previous week the pair is now showing sharp bullish correction on a daily chart. However, a bearish cross on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic indicates that the bearish trend may resume in a short run. Thus, going short with tight stops might be the right choice for today.

GBPUSD
The 4 hour chart shows that the pair's strong bearish move was halted, as the cable is now going through a bullish session since the beginning of this week. As all oscillators on the 4 hour chart are also pointing up, it seems that going long might be preferable.

USDJPY
The 4 hour chart is showing that the bullish momentum is weakening, and has turned slightly bearish. The bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic strengthens the pair's bearish inclination, and might see a valid target price at 109.00.

USDCHF
Ever since the pair reached its peak of over 1.1000, it's been showing bearish momentum exclusively. As all oscillators on the 4 hour chart are providing bearish signals, a breach through the 1.0915 level will probably validate the bearish move, with the next possible target price of 1.0860.

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Friday, August 15, 2008
15-Aug-2008 - Daily Forex Analysis
by: ForexYard

EUR/USD
The pair continued its bearish voyage yesterday as it dropped close to 200 pips. The 4 hour chart shows that the pair's price has descended beneath the Bollinger Bands border, suggesting that another bearish move is impending. Going short seems to be preferable.


GBP/USD
There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the daily chart, as the cable is now floating in its lower section. All oscillators on the daily chart are floating within bearish territories, implying that the falling trend might further continue. Going short could be the right choice today.


USD/JPY
The pair's bullish momentum continues with full steam, as it crossed the 110.20 level yesterday, and seems ready to test the 110.70 level. Should a breach occur, another bullish move might take place.


USD/CHF
The pair's bullish sprint has passed it through the 1.0970 level yesterday. As all oscillators on the 4 hour chart are pointing up, the pair might test the 1.1100 level - making a 6 month record.

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Thursday, August 14, 2008
14-Aug-2008 - Daily Forex Analysis
EUR/USD

The pair has consolidated around the 1.4900 level for the past few days without making any significant breach. However, the Bollinger Bands on the 4 hour chart are tightening, indicating that a sharp price movement is imminent. Waiting for the breach and swing might be a good strategy today.


GBP/USD

The pair is continuing its bearish momentum with full steam, as the cable breached through the 1.8650 level. The daily chart shows that the pair has descended beneath the Bollinger Bands border, suggesting that the falling trend might extend. Going short might be preferable.


USD/JPY

There is a very accurate bullish channel forming on the daily chart, as the pair is now floating in the middle of it. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart are pointing up, and next price target might be 110.00.


USD/CHF

The rising trend seems to be halting in the last couple of days, as the pair consolidated around the 1.0850 level. As the Bollinger Bands on the 4 hour chart are tightening, a strong price move might take place. Should the pair breach through the 1.0910 level, a sharp bullish momentum could be launched.

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Friday, August 8, 2008
8-Aug-2008 - ForexYard Daily Analysis
EUR/USD

There's a very accurate bearish channel forming on the daily chart as the pair is now floating on the bottom barrier of it. The 4 hour chart shows that the pair is still moving beneath the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the downtrend should further continue. Going short might be a good strategy.


GBP/USD

The pair is continuing its bearish development, as the cable dropped over 200 pips yesterday. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart are pointing down, indicating that the falling trend has more room to go. Next price target might be 1.9230.


USD/JPY

There's a very distinct bullish channel formed on the daily chart. The Bollinger Bands on the hourlies are tightening, suggesting that a strong movement is impending. As a bullish cross on the 4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic has recently took place, going long appears to be the right choice today.


USD/CHF

The bullish momentum continues with full steam as the pair breached the key Fibonacci level of 1.0700. Currently, all oscillators on the daily chart are giving bullish signals; hence, going long seems to be preferable.

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August 08 market commentary and technical levels
Fri, 08th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Greenback continued it’s positive trend. After break the key level support at 1.5380, the pair fell sharply, bottomed at 1.5310 and closed at 1.5324. This bearish momentum still continue early today in Asian market, as the pair already made a big bearish movement of 142 pips to the downside at the time I wrote this commentary, traded around 1.5215 bottomed at 1.5192. The bias is still on bearish side. We have an important support at 1.5180. A break to the downside could trigger further downside scenario towards 1.4975, while a failure could get us a correctional upside movement back towards 1.5380. CCI already in oversold area on both daily and weekly chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.5255
S2= 1.5186
S3= 1.5063
R1= 1.5447
R2= 1.5570
R3= 1.5639

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling also slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.9419 and closed at 1.9431. Early today, at the time I wrote this commentary, the pair already made a big bearish movement of 168 pips, traded around 1.9288 and bottomed at 1.9269. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9206. A break to the downside would open the door towards a broader bearish view towards 1.9063 area. Initial resistance at 1.9450. CCI in oversold area both on daily and weekly chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.9387
S2= 1.9344
S3= 1.9269
R1= 1.9505
R2= 1.9580
R3= 1.9623

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY bullish momentum had a minor correction. The pair bottomed at 109.13 and closed at 109.33. However, like all other major currencies, the Japanese Yes was traded weaker against Greenback early today. The pair is traded upside around 109.70 level at the time I wrote this commentary. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 109.88. A break to the upside could trigger further bullish scenario towards 110.60. CCI in oversold area both on daily and weekly chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 109.08
S2= 108.83
S3= 108.53
R1= 109.63
R2= 109.93
R3= 110.18

USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc also slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair topped at 1.0636 and closed at 1.0610. Early today, the pair already made a big upside movement, topped at 1.0711 at the time I wrote this commentary. Should this bullish momentum continue, the next target is 1.0762 resistance level. The bias is still on the bullish side. Immediate support is seen at 1.0609. CCI in overbought area both on daily and weekly chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.0542
S2= 1.0474
S3= 1.0427
R1= 1.0657
R2= 1.0704
R3= 1.0772


Have a nice weekend!

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Thursday, August 7, 2008
7-Aug-2008 - Forex Daily Analysis
By: ForexYard

EUR/USD
There is a very distinct bearish channel forming on the daily chart, as the pair is now floating in the middle of it. All oscillators are giving bearish signals, suggesting that the bearish move will probably continue. Going short might be the right choice today.


GBP/USD
The bearish momentum continues with full steam, and yesterday the cable breached the 1.9480 level. The daily chart shows that the pair is still floating beneath the Bollinger Bands, indicating the continuation of the bearish move. Going short may be a good strategy.


USD/JPY
The intensive bullish trend is growing stronger as the pair crossed the 109.50 level yesterday. All oscillators on the daily chart are pointing up, implying further bullish momentum. Next price target might be 110.15.


USD/CHF

The pair is continuing to show coherent bullish moves, as yesterday it breached the key Fibonacci level of 1.0600. A fresh bullish cross on the one hour chart's Slow Stochastic may signify another development in the rising trend. Going long appears to be preferable today.

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August 06 market commentary and technical levels
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the EURUSD continued it’s bearish momentum. The pair bottomed at 1.5445 and closed at 1.5449. Technically, after break out the support level at 1.5460 yesterday, the pair open the door towards 1.5380. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5512 followed by 1.5570. A break out to the upside could trigger further correction towards 1.5630. CCI in oversold area on daily chart so watch out for an upside correctional move.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.5404
S2= 1.5359
S3= 1.5274
R1= 1.5534
R2= 1.5619
R3= 1.5664

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, although the bearish power was less than what I had expected. The pair bottomed at 1.9520 and closed at 1.9529. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9470. A break to the downside from that level could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.9360. Initial resistance at 1.9575 followed by 1.9625. A break to the upside could trigger further upside correction towards 1.9750. CCI in oversold area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.9491
S2= 1.9453
S3= 1.9387
R1= 1.9595
R2= 1.9661
R3= 1.9699

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday USDJPY attempted to push lower and bottomed at 107.67, but the pair whipsawed, made a new high of the day at 108.41 and closed at 108.29. My model remains mixed with upside bias. The key level in this phase is 108.40/50. A break to the upside would trigger further bullish movement towards 108.90 then 109.50. Immediate support is seen at 108.05 followed by 107.67 (yesterday’s low). CCI about to cross 100 line up on daily chart, suggesting a potential bullish view.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 107.83
S2= 107.38
S3= 107.09
R1= 108.57
R2= 108.86
R3= 109.31

USDCHF Outlook
Like to all other major currencies, yesterday the Greenback continued it’s positive momentum against Swiss Franc. The pair topped at 1.0558 and closed at 1.0547, but traded a little bit lower around 1.0525 at the time I wrote this commentary today. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0558 (yesterday’s high). A break to the upside could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.0600 area. Initial support is seen at 1.0480 followed by 1.0435. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
S1= 1.0498
S2= 1.0450
S3= 1.0420
R1= 1.0576
R2= 1.0606
R3= 1.0654

Have a great day!

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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
6-Aug-2008
Daily Analysis by ForexYard

EUR/USD
The pair is in the middle of a very intensive downtrend that still shows great momentum and on a bigger scale appears to have more room to run. In the shorter time frame a bullish cross on the 4 hour indicates that there might be a small correction before the bearish move resumes. Selling on highs appears to be preferable today.

GBP/USD
The cable has breached the key Fibonacci level of 1.9550, and the break has been validated by a full bar beneath that level on the 4 hour chart. The negative slope on the daily slow stochastic strengthens the notion that the momentum is quite bearish. Going short might be wise today.

USD/JPY
The pair has been range trading with high volatility for a while now, and it appears that the bearish price movement might be back. The Slow Stochastic and the RSI of the hourly chart are indicating an upcoming test of the 107.80 level. If that level is breached, swinging in the trend would be the best strategy.

USD/CHF
The daily chart is showing that the pair is still in the bullish configuration; however the RSI is already floating in the overbought territory. On the contrary, the hourly's and the 4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic is showing a bearish cross. It appears that the possible next move might be a bearish one. In that case traders are advised to swing in after the break.

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U.S. dollar hits 6-week high vs euro ahead of Fed interest rate decision
LONDON - The dollar rose to a six-week high against the euro, helped by falls in oil prices and as market players awaited Tuesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

The Fed is fully expected to leave interest rates on hold at 2.00 percent as a slowing economy prevents the central bank from raising interest rates in order to tackle soaring inflationary pressures. Hopes are growing, however, that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will release a hawkish statement to accompany its decision.

"The dollar is currently supported by expectations that the statement could sound more hawkish," said Commerzbank analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann.

The statement is expected to reiterate that the downside risks to growth have diminished, particularly following some better-than-expected U.S. data recently.

Meanwhile, the dollar is also gaining from sharp falls in oil prices, which are now trading at around $119 per barrel, on hopes that this will help prop up the U.S. economy.

The oil price falls have also benefited the yen -- as Japan must import 100 percent of its oil -- and weighed on commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar slumping to a four-month low against its U.S. counterpart of $0.9169.

Meanwhile, the euro also suffered as the final reading of the euro zone service sector PMI confirmed activity contracted for the second month running during July.

The RBS/Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index for services companies fell to 48.3 from 49.1 June, well below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction and adding to the mounting evidence that the euro zone economy is slowing sharply.

"The sharper contraction in service sector activity in July adds to the mounting evidence that the euro zone economic downturn is deepening," said Howard Archer at Global Insight. The news was compounded by data showing a sharp fall in euro zone retail sales during June.

At 1130 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.5475, down from $1.5501 at 0843 GMT.

Elsewhere, the pound also fell to a six-week low against the dollar after figures showing a bigger than expected fall in industrial and manufacturing production during June raised the prospect of a downward revision to UK second quarter GDP figures.

"The ongoing contraction in the (manufacturing) sector is looking more ominous given the deteriorating situation in the euro zone, the UK's major export market," said Daragh Maher at Calyon, adding that it suggests the sector will "remain in the doldrums for some time to come".

The news was somewhat offset, however, by a stronger-than-expected service sector PMI survey, which unexpectedly rose to 47.4 in July from a seven-year low of 47.1 in June.

At 1130 GMT, the pound was trading at $1.9530 against the dollar, down from $1.9551 at 0840 GMT, while the euro was trading at 0.7921 pounds against 0.7924 pounds at 0840 GMT.

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Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Forex Analysis: 5-Aug_2008
Technical News by ForexYard

EUR/USD
The 4 H and the daily charts indicate that there is still room for this pair to reach new lows, particularly after this pair breached the key 1.5580 support level yesterday. Both the RSI and momentum are negatively sloped indicating that this pair may continue its bearish rampage. However the hourlies indicate that we are in oversold territory, so it may be a good time to begin pairing off some of those short positions

GBP/USD
The cable is in the middle of a very intensive downtrend that started in the middle of July and shows great momentum that on a bigger scale appears to have more room to run. In the shorter time frame a bullish cross on the 4 hour indicates that there might be a small correction before the bearish move resumes. Selling on highs appears to be preferable today.

USD/JPY
On the daily chart the RSI is breaking the 50 mark and is indicating that this pair's bullish run has still got some steam in it. The 4 hour and the hourly charts also support that notion and this pair is now targeting the 108.30 level, once that is breached we could see even sharper upwards move.

USD/CHF
This pair is still in the midst of a steady uptrend which is not yet showing any sign of leveling out. The RSI and Momentum are still positively sloped indicating that there is still plenty of steam left in this bullish move. Once this pair breaches the 1.0560 level it's likely to make another sharp break upwards.

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Forex Daily Analysis 04-Aug-2008
EUR/USD
The ongoing tight range continues without a break of any significant importance. The daily chart is maintaining a slightly bearish indication yet with no distinct conclusion. The Bollinger Bands on the 4 hour chart are tightening which indicates that the break might be imminent. Traders are advised to hold for the break and then swing into it.

GBP/USD
The intensive bearish trend is calming on the hourly charts, yet shows no real indication of a halt or a correction move. In fact, on the hourlies and the 4 hour chart a bearish formation is still intact. A negative slope on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic validates that notion. Going short seems to be a good choice today.

USD/JPY
After reaching the 107.23 level, the pair has marked it as a very strong support level and is showing difficulties breaking it locally. If that support will sustain an additional attempt, we may see a strong bullish correction move that might take the pair to the 108.20 level as a first step. Traders should pay close attention to that level as it holds high profit potential.

USD/CHF
The pair's movement is quite moderate and characterized by relatively low liquidity, with a slightly bullish move. Indicators on the 4 hour level shows mixed signals, as the daily studies are still a bit bullish. Waiting for a clear signal on the hourly level before entering the market might be wise.

By ForexYard

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