Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





February 2007 March 2007 September 2007 November 2007 December 2007 February 2008 May 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011




Easy-Forex
Master-Forex
Forex-Factory
Forex-tsd
ForexYard
Forex Education
Marketiva
OnLine Forex



Blogger

FinalSense

Amazon

Yahoo

Ebay



Friday, February 27, 2009
Feb 27 market commentary and technical levels

Fri, 27th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD didn’t make a significant movement yesterday. On hourly chart we have symmetrical triangle indicating a consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.2650. Break below that level could trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.2500 area. Initial resistance at 1.2807 (yesterday’s high). CCI about to cross the -100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

eurusdhourly10

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

S1= 1.2680
S2= 1.2618
S3= 1.2555
R1= 1.2805
R2= 1.2868
R3= 1.2930

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish movement yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4382 and closed at 1.4314. On 4h chart we can see that the major trend remains bearish but I think the bias unclear in nearest and medium term, so it’s better to keep stay out from the market. Immediate support is seen at 1.4250 followed by 1.4130. Initial resistance at 1.4382 (yesterday’s high). CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

gbpusd4hchart15

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4189
  • S2= 1.4064
  • S3= 1.3968
  • R1= 1.4410
  • R2= 1.4506
  • R3= 1.4631

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 98.25, topped at 98.69 and closed at 98.50. The bias remains bullish targeting 100.00 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 97.80 support area.

usdjpy4hchart13

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.64
  • S2= 96.78
  • S3= 96.26
  • R1= 99.02
  • R2= 99.54
  • R3= 100.4

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a moderate bearish movement yesterday. On hourly chart we have a symmetrical triangle indicating a consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1600. Initial resistance at 1.1740. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

usdchfhourly7

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1580
  • S2= 1.1520
  • S3= 1.1447
  • R1= 1.1713
  • R2= 1.1786
  • R3= 1.1846

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-27 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Floats on Faltering Economy

The Dollar gained against several of it major currency pairs, such as the EUR currency cross in early trading yesterday. However, those gains were quickly eroded as a glut of poor economic data from the U.S. helped to drive the pair back to its opening price level. The market absorbed less than stellar economic reports from the U.S. economy. Poor production data, lower housing numbers, and an increase in new unemployment claims took the energy from the EUR bulls and sapped the earlier gains from the EUR/USD. The pair began the day at 1.2716 and rose to a high of 1.2809. The USD closed up vs. the EUR by only 2 pips at 1.2732. The release of more poor performing data from the U.S. helped to sap the added risk taking in the forex market and the currency pair ended the day near its opening price.

Against the Dollars other currency crosses, however, it lost some ground. The Dollar closed down 25 pips vs. the JPY at 97.58, reversing 3 days of gains. This may have been due to better-than-expected economic figures released from Japan. The GBP/USD made a slight correction in yesterday's trading, as the Pound closed up 52 pips on the Dollar to 1.4297, making some amends for the previous days 300 pip decline against the greenback.

It should be taken into account that the market largely didn't react overly negatively to President Barack Obama's announcement that the U.S. government will run a $1.75 trillion budget deficit. This amounts to roughly 12% of U.S. GDP. The reason for this may be that traders still have confidence in the new president. However, if Obama fails to help kick-start the American economy after 6 months, then traders are likely to realize that Obama's talk is substance, and not addition. This may on effect lead to a bearish Dollar in the medium-long term.

Later today, there are several important economic data releases coming out of the U.S. The most important of these publications is the Prelim quarterly GDP figures at 13:30 GMT. Analysts have forecasted that the U.S. economy is contracting by 5.4%. Combine this and further long term pressures of such a large budget deficit and we could see the Dollar depreciate against the EUR, perhaps to the 1.2800 level. However, if the results turn out to be better-than-expected, then the EUR/USD pair may reach 1.2650 by late trading.


EUR

GBP Moves on British Bank Bailout

The GBP appears to have offered some stability in Thursday's trading. This comes about as Britain announces its most recent banking bailout. Yesterday, the British government unveiled a plan to protect banks from future losses related to bad debt. The plan was announced to backstop British banks that have lost billions of Pounds in the global financial crisis. This plan may ensure that British banks keep lending in spite of the large losses.

The new plan helped to increase risk taking in early trading yesterday, resulting in the GBP rallying against the Dollar and the EUR. However these gains dissipated as the day wore on, as risk sentiment disappeared. The GBP/USD closed at 1.4297 from 1.4245 Wednesday. The Pound also gained some ground against the EUR, as the pair closed down 33 pips at 0.8904.

A week banking system that has suffered losses from toxic debt has characterized the may put downward pressure on the GBP in the coming weeks. This is likely to continue as more pressure may fall on British bank regulators to nationalize the ailing banking system amid the global financial crisis. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has in effect already been nationalized by the most recent capital injection by the British government. Further involvement could put help to depreciate the GBP against its major crosses.


JPY

JPY Free Fall Continues

The JPY continues to fall against the major currencies, but the selling in mass of the Yen was briefly halted by better-than-expected production data. The USD/JPY fell early this morning as preliminary industrial production fell by 10%. While the number appears to be drastic, traders were prepared for a much larger drop. When this did not occur, the JPY was given a large boost. The pair closed at 97.58, down 25 pips from yesterday's opening.

This production data is a stark reminder of the economic situation in Japan. Concerns regarding the fundamental weakness in the Japanese economy are having traders push the USD/JPY to its highest level in almost 4 months. The recent gains for the JPY may not hold as the market is very negative on its outlook for the Japanese economy. Further appreciation could take place in the USD/JPY and send the pair back to the 98.50 mark by the end of today.


Oil

Crude Oil Surges on Renewed Supply Cut Fears

Crude Oil experienced a sharp rise in prices yesterday as the Organization of Oil exporting Countries (OPEC) signaled it may be ready to make more supply cuts in the future. The price of Crude Oil jumped close to 5% yesterday to close at $44.48, up from $42.76. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it would reduce production supplies to Asia. This leads some Oil analysts to believe that more production cuts may be in store from the Oil cartel at their next meeting in March.

It appears OPEC may follow through on its promised supply cuts. In the past OPEC has announced future supply cuts, but member nations have sometimes been reluctant to comply as the drops in production lead to falling revenues for OPEC members. Recent data shows that the member countries have been steadily reducing their daily supply counts. This may lead to a further price appreciation for the commodity, perhaps to the level of $46 by the week's end.


Technical News

EUR/USD
Narrow range trading continues as the pair did not make a significant move in either direction, and is currently traded around the 1.2745 level. However, the 4 hour chart's RSI is floating near the bottom border, suggesting that the possible next move might be a bullish one. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


GBP/USD
The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. Both the daily RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, the pair currently sits near the bottom border of the 4 hour chart's RSI, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the daily chart's RSI indicating a downward correction may be imminent. The downward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.


USD/CHF
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart's RSI providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

Labels: , , , , ,

Thursday, February 26, 2009
Feb-26 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

USD/JPY Climbs Back to November 2008 Prices

The greenback was traded near the highest level against the Japanese Yen since November. This came about from speculation that the U.S. durable goods report may show a decreasing figure, adding to the drop in home sales which boosted the currency's appeal as a refuge from the global slump. Analysts expect the Dollar to remain the safe-haven currency of choice in the coming days, as investors are still concerned about the global economic outlook.

The USD traded at 97.53 Yen from 97.39 Yen late in yesterday's New York trading hours. Against the EUR, the USD was at 1.2716, from 1.2723 yesterday, losing some of its momentum against its primary currency rival.

Contrary to forecasts, the greenback may rise against the EUR and GBP after an unexpected reduction in last month's U.S. Existing Home Sales report led to an appreciation of the nation's currency. The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that purchases of existing homes in the U.S. fell 5.3% in January to an annual figure of 4.49 million, the lowest level since 1997! Apparently, the negative housing data has triggered more USD buying, especially against the EUR, keeping the U.S currency in demand as the safe-haven depended on during this global economic uncertainty and risk aversion.

However, any optimism that the global economy could be recovering might prompt investors to sell the Dollar and buy riskier assets and currencies. Several market players expect the USD to fall sharply once demand for Treasury and agency debt eases and the U.S. current account deficit swells. Once this happens, traders will start investing in other regions, such as Europe.


EUR

GBP Drops on Signs the British Recession is Deepening

The Euro-Zone currency fell more than 1% against the Dollar on Tuesday after European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet stated that the financial system was under severe strain, hampering an economic recovery. The economies which make up the Euro-Zone contracted by the most in at least 13 years, pushing the region into a deeper recession. The German economy also contracted the most in 22 years, a government report showed today.

The British Pound dropped against the USD and EUR fueling speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely cut Interest Rates next week. The GBP weakened 1.7% to 1.4238 against the USD. Against the EUR, the Pound depreciated 0.9% to 0.8953. The Pound also slipped from the highest level in almost three months versus the Japanese yen as the Office for National Statistics said Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted the most since 1980!

The Pound extended losses after one of the BoE's policy-makers, David Blanchflower, stated that Britain's recession may intensify significantly in the coming months. Analysts say that the underlying fundamentals remain weak and that is having a short-term impact on the Sterling. The BoE meets to decide its Interest Rates next week. Policy-makers already cut the benchmark rate to 1%, a record low, and signaled they're willing to create money to help stimulate the U.K economy, which will likely drive the value of the GBP lower in the short-term.


JPY

Yen Declines as Japanese Economy Gets Worse

Japan's currency slid to a 3-month low against the USD after Japan's trade deficit widened the most in more than two decades, denting its allure as a refuge from the financial crisis. It also weakened versus the EUR after the government said exports tumbled 46% in January, signaling the slump in the world's second largest economy is deepening. It depreciated to 124.43 per EUR, the lowest level since Jan. 9th. Against the Dollar, the Yen continued to drop to 97.75, the weakest level since Nov. 11th.

The Japanese economy's contraction last quarter was the worst since 1974 and analysts predict the slump may drag into the next fiscal year. Output may shrink a record 4% starting April 1st, according to some economists. Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials said last week that the economy will remain in a severe state next quarter and companies will struggle to obtain financing as investors shun risk. The bank, which lowered the key overnight lending rate to 0.10% in December, last week said it will buy corporate bonds for the first time in order to stem the credit squeeze.


Oil

Crude Oil Rises Above $42.50 a Barrel

Crude Oil climbed 6% to above $42 a barrel on Wednesday, after a U.S. government report showed a sharp drop in gasoline inventories in the world's top energy consumer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 1.7% rise in demand for fuel over the four weeks prior to February 20th. Further support for Oil prices came from reports this week of high compliance by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with deep production cuts agreed last year to stem the slide in oil prices. The 11 OPEC members with quotas, excluding Iraq, reduced output by 3.8% to 25.3 million barrels a day in February.

The rise in Crude prices came despite a drop in the equities markets, with European shares hitting a new 6-year low. U.S. stocks fell after U.S. President Barack Obama's first address to Congress shed little new light on how he plans to stabilize the U.S economy and shore up banks. Analysts expect that Crude Oil prices will probably start rising in the second half of the year as a drop in demand starts leveling off and OPEC cuts supply further.


Technical News

EUR/USD
Yesterday's pennant formation apparently has not finished its development as the pair continues to consolidate towards the 1.2800 price level before making a significant breach. For the time being this pair continues to float between a distinct price-range. Buying on the lows and selling on the highs in this range appears to be a wise strategy today.


GBP/USD
There appears to be a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling an imminent upward correction to the down-trend seen throughout this week. With the weekly Momentum oscillator shifting into a sharp upward direction, it appears this pair may be due for a trend reversal. Going long with tight stops might be a good strategy today.


USD/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI oscillators of both the 4-hour and daily charts, indicating a downward correction may occur in the near future. With a bearish cross forming on the daily chart, this downward move may take place later today. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.


USD/CHF
After two violent breaches of the upper border on the hourly chart's Bollinger Bands late yesterday, this pair now appears to be settling down into a more neutral position. However, the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are beginning to tighten, indicating that another violent movement may occur in the near future. Traders may want to wait for the breach then swing.


EUR/JPY
For the past two days this pair has been trading in a very solid range, with distinct highs and lows. However, the 4-hour and daily chart are beginning to signal that this pair is due for a downward correction. The price appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of both charts; and, the daily chart indicates that yesterday's trading ended with a doji formation, signaling relatively strong pressure for a reversal of the recent uptrend. Forex traders can benefit from this knowledge by entering their short positions early and riding the impending wave.

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-26 market commentary and technical levels

Thu, 26th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was traded lower yesterday. On 4h chart the triangle has been breakdown to the downside suggesting a potential bearish scenario. However, we have not seen a clear trending market since Monday. Although technically it should be bearish for the pair, we also know that the market seems hesitate to let EURUSD stay below 1.2650- 1.2700 area this week. The bias is bearish in nearest term but only a consistent movement below 1.2650 area could trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.2470 - 1.2500 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.2770 and 1.2825 resistance area.

eurusd4hchart7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2643
  • S2= 1.2563
  • S3= 1.2437
  • R1= 1.2849
  • R2= 1.2975
  • R3= 1.3055

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.4173 and closed at 1.4202. The triangle formation on 4h chart has been breakdown to the downside suggesting a potential bearish scenario. However CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pullback. We know that although technically it should be bearish for GBPUSD, the market always avoid any movement below 1.4050 – 1.4100 area this month. That fact give us a bad risk-reward situation. Unless you are a scalper, it’s better to stay away right now.

gbpusd4hchart14

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4049
  • S2= 1.3896
  • S3= 1.3619
  • R1= 1.4479
  • R2= 1.4756
  • R3= 1.4909

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 97.52, topped at 97.77 and closed at 97.38. The bias remains bullish targeting 98.25 before heading for 100.00 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 96.90 support area.

usdjpy4hchart12

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.55
  • S2= 95.73
  • S3= 95.12
  • R1= 97.98
  • R2= 98.59
  • R3= 99.41

USDCHF Outlook
The Greenback was traded stronger against Swiss Franc yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1741 and closed at 1.1696. On 4h chart we can see that the pair has been trendless since the middle of January, moving inside 1.1880 – 1.1313 area. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term so keep stay away from the market. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1741 (yesterday’s high). Initial support at 1.1635. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdchf4hchart9

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1583
  • S2= 1.1470
  • S3= 1.1391
  • R1= 1.1775
  • R2= 1.1854
  • R3= 1.1967

Labels: , , , , ,

Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Feb-25 market commentary and technical levels

Wed, 25th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.2875 and closed at 1.2844. On 4h chart we have a symmetrical triangle formation indicating consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A break from the triangle formation would give us clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2880. Break above that level could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.3030 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.2790 and 1.2750 support area.

eurusd4hchart6

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2712
  • S2= 1.2580
  • S3= 1.2499
  • R1= 1.2925
  • R2= 1.3006
  • R3= 1.3138

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We still have bearish channel on hourly chart and price seem to test the channel line resistance now. A breakout to the upside would trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.4637 area. Immediate support at 1.4465 followed by 1.4350. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

gbpusdhourly4

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4375
  • S2= 1.4274
  • S3= 1.4174
  • R1= 1.4576
  • R2= 1.4676
  • R3= 1.4777

USDJPY Outlook
As I had expected, the USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 95.50, even further, topped at 96.92 and closed at 96.62. The bias remains bullish targeting 97.52 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a minor downside pullback testing 95.90 support area.

usdjpy4hchart11

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 94.94
  • S2= 93.26
  • S3= 92.27
  • R1= 97.61
  • R2= 98.60
  • R3= 100.28

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF was traded lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1533 and closed at 1.1600. On 4h chart we have a moderate bullish channel inside 1.1880 – 1.1313 area. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. I think it’s better to stay away now. Immediate support is seen at 1.1533 (yesterday’s low) followed by 1.1460. Initial resistance at 1.1720. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

usdchf4hchart8

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1518
  • S2= 1.1436
  • S3= 1.1340
  • R1= 1.1696
  • R2= 1.1792
  • R3= 1.1874

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-25 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Fundamentals May Generate High Volatility Today

The greenback completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The USD fell against the EUR yesterday, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.2866. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the CHF as the pair dropped from 116.70 to 115.80 by day's end. The USD did see some bullishness as well as it gained over 150 points against the JPY and closed at 96.70.

The most influential economic data coming from the U.S. yesterday was the consumer confidence report. Consumer confidence hit a record low in February as Americans feared an already deep recession was likely to get even worse. The impact of the financial crisis over the last several months has clearly taken a toll on consumer confidence. In assessing current conditions, consumers rated the labor market and business conditions much less favorably. President Barack Obama is trying to mend the breach in confidence with a stimulus plan that he says will save or create more than 3 million jobs, cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending.

USD trading will be interesting today as a number of important economic data is expected to be released. Similar to yesterday, the news will start at 15:00 GMT with a series of economic indicators being released starting with Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories. Surprisingly, almost all of these releases are expected to be higher than their previous figures meaning the USD could show relatively high levels of bullishness today. Traders should stay close to the market as there is a strong chance to capitalize on the fluctuations which will likely follow these releases.


EUR

EUR Strengthening from Global Economic Weakness

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The EUR gained about 150 points versus the USD during yesterday's trading session, and closed at 1.2866.

German business confidence slipped in February, with a grim economic situation weighing on sentiment even as a government stimulus plan helped invigorate firms' outlook for the future. The Ifo institute's monthly index declined to 82.6 points in February from 83 last month. This wiped out the slight gain made in January, which followed seven consecutive months of decline and defied economists' predictions that the index would remain static or rise slightly.

Germany's economy, Europe's biggest, went into recession last fall as the global economic crisis sapped demand for its exports. The recession deepened in the fourth quarter, when the economy shrank by 2.1%.

Looking ahead to today, the most important financial indicator scheduled to be released from Europe is Germany's Final GDP. Analysts are forecasting this figure to be unchanged from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement, as a stronger than expected result may continue to bolster the EUR.


JPY

Japanese Economy Faces Severe Depression

The Japanese Yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against all of its currency crosses. The JPY fell against the USD after several days of recovery, while the EUR/JPY cross also rose to around 1.2443. The only economic events out of Japan yesterday was Trade balance; a little changed from forecasts as volatility was kept to a minimum

Japan's exports plunged by a record in January, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe smothered demand for the country's cars. The government has been unable to pass a stimulus package that could help encourage domestic spending in the absence of export demand. Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to get approval from the opposition-led upper house to spend 10 trillion yen to aid companies and households, whose sentiment is near a record low.

There are no economic data releases expected from Japanese economy today; however there will be a nice amount of data from the U.S, which will affect the Yen's major counterparts. Traders might look for further bearishness for the JPY.


Oil

OPEC Producers asked to Lower Crude Oil Output

Crude Oil prices rose again yesterday as the U.S. stock market advanced, signaling that fuel usage in the world's biggest energy-consuming country may rebound. Moreover, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may begin to cut output by 3.8% a day in February in order to stabilize prices.

However, traders should be eyeing news of key U.S. economic indicators, including a government report on Crude Oil Inventories due today. Worries that weakened international economic growth will depress Oil demand remains a key dampening influence on Oil prices. If the global economic condition deteriorates more aggressively, Crude Oil prices may extend their decline faster than expected.


Technical News

EUR/USD
A pennant formation appears to be forming on the 4-hour and daily charts, signifying that a continuation of the recent uptrend may occur and push this pair higher in the near future. The weekly Momentum oscillator also shows the direction of this pair has begun to change course. Waiting for the breach and then placing long positions might be a wise strategy.


GBP/USD
The price appears to have just entered the over-bought territory on the hourly chart's RSI, indicating a downward correction may occur shortly. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart also appear to be tightening in anticipation of an impending volatile price movement. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.


USD/JPY
The price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the 4-hour and daily charts, signaling strong downward pressure. A bearish cross appears to have just formed on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic as well, supporting the notion that a downward correction is imminent. Going short might be the right choice today.


USD/CHF
This pair appears to be consolidating at the 1.1620 price level and is expected to make a breach in the near future. With recent indications of downward pressure, this pair may turn the corner in the near future and enter a downward correction. Going short with tight stops appears to be the right choice today.


GBP/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI, signaling a downward correction may take place soon. The recent bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic supports this notion. With a bearish cross beginning to form on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, forex traders may be confident with the idea that a downward correction is imminent and capture profits by entering short positions now and riding out the impending movement.

Labels: , , , , ,

Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Feb-24 market commentary and technical levels

Tue, 24th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday. The pair topped at 1.2988 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hit bottom at 1.2690 and closed at 1.2692. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.2590 then 1.2470 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2750. CCI about to cross -100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

eurusd4hchart5

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2592
  • S2= 1.2492
  • S3= 1.2294
  • R1= 1.2890
  • R2= 1.3088
  • R3= 1.3188

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also attempted to pushed higher yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4659 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.4483. It looks like the pair still trapped in ranging area of 23.6% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the 4h chart. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.4390 support area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.4550 resistance area.

gbpusd4hchart13

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4344
  • S2= 1.4205
  • S3= 1.4048
  • R1= 1.4640
  • R2= 1.4797
  • R3= 1.4936

USDJPY Outlook
After corrected lower on Friday, yesterday the USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum. The pair topped at 94.93 and closed at 94.58. We have a valid bullish channel on 4h chart. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 95.50 area. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 94.00 support area.

usdjpy4hchart10

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 93.25
  • S2= 91.92
  • S3= 91.08
  • R1= 95.42
  • R2= 96.26
  • R3= 97.59

USDCHF Outlook
The Greenback regained some strength against the Swiss Franc yesterday. On hourly chart we can see that after breakdown to the downside of the former bullish channel support line, the pair is now push to the upside and testing the same line which now has become a resistance. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.1750 but remains unclear in medium term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.1620 support area.

usdchfhourly6

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1531
  • S2= 1.1380
  • S3= 1.1298
  • R1= 1.1764
  • R2= 1.1846
  • R3= 1.1997

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-24 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Rises as Wall Street Tumbles

The Dollar rose against its main currency pairs in yesterday's trading while Wall Street recorded some big losses. The Dow Jones dived by a massive 250 points, reaching a 12-year low. This came about after federal authorities released information about the possibility of taking stakes in top U.S. banks. It is important to note that bank shares, such as those of Citigroup and Bank of America, increased as Barack Obama reassured investors that banks will remain in private hands.

The USD made large gains against the EUR as it climbed about 185 points versus the European currency to close at 1.2724. Against the JPY, the USD gained about 200 points to finish trading at 94.96. The USD, however, lost 31 points against the GBP to close at 1.4547.

One reason for the Dollar's gains was due to investors viewing the currency as a safe-haven. This is likely to continue in the coming months as the recession continues to destabilize the global economy. The JPY and EUR weakness against the Dollar yesterday can be explained by pointing to negative data coming from these 2 regional markets. Also, the JPY is starting to be considered as less of a safe-haven than the USD. Furthermore, European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet spoke about the intensification and severity of the recession as it hit all sectors of the Euro-Zone economy in recent weeks.

Looking ahead to today, the 2 main news events coming out of the U.S. are the release of U.S. CB Consumer Confidence figures. This will be important in determining the Dollar's value later in today's trading. It is important to take into account, as we have seen of late, even if the news from the U.S. is negative, it may even help lead to Dollar bullishness as investors continue to seek the safe-haven U.S. currency in the current recession.


EUR

European Currency Declines on Deepening Recession

The EUR declined as fears about an accelerating recession in the Euro-Zone took its toll in Monday's trading. The EUR recorded losses against most of its currency pairs, which was also compounded by Wall Street's record drop yesterday. The European currency's trading in recent weeks has been increasingly volatile, as the economic situation continues to dampen the Euro-Zone economy.

The main factor leading to a bearish EUR yesterday was European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet detailing more how hard-hit the Euro-Zone has been since the start of the recession, indicating that the ECB is likely to cut Interest Rates further in March. The EUR fell by a staggering 140 points against the GBP to 0.8739. The EUR/USD pair finished yesterday's trading down by nearly 185 points at 1.2724. However, against the JPY, the EUR closed up 90 points at 120.85.

Today, there will be a lot of news coming out of the Euro-Zone. The German Ifo Business Climate and Current Account figures are expected to be released at 9:00 GMT. Better-than-expected results may lead to a bullish EUR through the end of today's trading sessions.


JPY

Yen Declines against Dollar and EUR

The Yen recorded losses against all of its major currency crosses in yesterdays trading. This came about for several reasons. Primarily among them is that Japan's economy continues to decline at an alarming rate as the global recession continues to take its toll. The Yen declined by 200 points against the USD to finish Monday's trading at 94.96. Against the EUR it also lost 90 points to close at 120.85.

A few economic data releases are expected to be released from Japan later today. At 23:50 GMT there is the release of Japanese Trade Balance figures. This is likely to have an impact on the JPY in late trading. However, before this release there is likely to be a lot of action in the currency market. This is likely to be led by political and economic developments coming out of the U.S., Britain, and the Euro-Zone. If things continue in the same pattern for the JPY, then the USD/JPY currency cross may exceed 96.00 in tomorrow's trading. Additionally, if Japan shows more negative economic data in the coming week, then it is likely to sink to new lows against its major currency pairs.


Oil

Oil Tumbles on Falling Demand

The price of Crude Oil tumbled $2.31 to $38.01 a barrel in yesterday's trading, as OPEC foresaw demand falling faster than the cartel's production cuts. OPEC has cut its oil production by several million barrels a day since September, and is expected to cut further when they meet again in March. One of the main issues that is affecting Oil's volatility is the U.S. economy. It seems that the only way for Oil to make a mini-recovery is if the U.S. shows that it is resilient when it comes to the recession. However, facts on the ground seem to contradict this.

With over 500,000 Americans losing their jobs each month, the collapsing car industry, and with the closure of factories in the U.S., it seems unlikely that Oil prices will recover at all, at least in the next few weeks. This is increasingly valid as Japan, China, and the Euro-Zone are also increasingly feeling the heat of the global recession. It seems that only daily U.S. stockpile increases or a string of positive economic figures coming out of the U.S. may push-up Oil prices in the short-term. In the long-term, traders should look for a continuance of this steady price depreciation.


Technical News

EUR/USD
A bullish cross appears to be imminent on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling a bullish correction may take place shortly. However, a bearish cross may be forming on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating the opposite. Weekly momentum appears to be leveling which means the pair may lack direction at the moment. Waiting for a clearer signal might be the right choice today.


GBP/USD
It appears a bearish cross is imminent on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating a downward correction may occur soon. As the price begins to approach the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI, the downward correction becomes more imminent. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.


USD/JPY
This pair has recently entered a sustained upward trend. With the Slow Stochastic on the 4-hour chart indicating a bearish cross has recently formed, and the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic signaling that one may be imminent, a downward correction may indeed be occurring in the near future. Going short with tight stops might be the preferable strategy today.


USD/CHF
After last Friday's significant drop, the pair now appears to be in a steady uptrend. With the recent bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, a downward correction may be imminent. However, most other oscillators show a lack of direction. Waiting for the correction to finish its course then buying on lows may be the right strategy today.

Labels: , , , , ,

Monday, February 23, 2009
Feb-23 market commentary and technical levels

Mon, 23th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 1.2884 and closed at 1.2836. On 4h chart we have a falling wedge formation which is a bullish reversal pattern. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3030 resistance area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing support at 1.2700 – 1.2750 area.

eurusd4hchart3

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2634
  • S2= 1.2432
  • S3= 1.2307
  • R1= 1.2961
  • R2= 1.3086
  • R3= 1.3288

GBPUSD Outlook
The Greenback also traded lower against Sterling on Friday. The pair topped at 1.4480 and closed at 1.4425. Fibonacci retracement study on 4h chart below show us that last week the pair still trapped in ranging area between 23.6 % and 61.8% (1.4637 and 1.4073) area which is likely to stay that way if we do not have significant market catalyst this week ahead. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.4550 resistance area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.4310 – 1.4350 support area.

gbpusd4hchart11

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4224
  • S2= 1.4024
  • S3= 1.3896
  • R1= 1.4552
  • R2= 1.4680
  • R3= 1.4880

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. Limited by double top formation the upside pressure was stopped and the pair was corrected lower, bottomed at 92.52 and closed at 93.02. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 92.74 and 91.67 support area but remains neutral in medium term. Immediate resistance at 93.70. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdjpy4hchart8

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 92.23
  • S2= 91.44
  • S3= 90.37
  • R1= 94.09
  • R2= 95.16
  • R3= 95.95

USDCHF Outlook
The Greenback slumped against Swiss Franc on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.1461 and closed at 1.1525. On hourly chart below we can see that after violate the bullish channel to the downside the pair had a significant bearish momentum. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.1400 support area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure testing 1.1650 resistance level.

usdchfhourly5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1363
  • S2= 1.1201
  • S3= 1.0942
  • R1= 1.1784
  • R2= 1.2043
  • R3= 1.2205

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-23 Daily Forex Analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Mixed Signals coming from the U.S Economy are affecting the USD

Last week was an extremely volatile trading session for the greenback. The Dollar first depreciated against most of the major currencies, however just before the week ended, the USD saw bullish trends at all fronts, driving it back to former levels vs. the majors.

One reason that could explain the vexed trading is the contradicting economic publications that took place this week. On one hand the housing sector and the employment condition aren't giving even the slightest clue that the economy is stabilizing. The Building Permits indicator dropped to merely 0.52M new residential building permits issued during January, and the Housing Starts indicator showed that only 0.47M new residential buildings began construction during January. Just to help you understand the severity of these figures, during June 2008, 1.09M new permits were issued, and 1.07M new buildings began construction. In addition, the weekly Unemployment Claims reveled that once again, over 600K people have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. However, on the other hand, it seems that the price of goods and services in the U.S. is stabilizing. The Producer Price Index gave a surprising positive result, reflected in 0.8% rise in prices during January, and the Consumer Price Index rose as well, by 0.3%. The fact that producers are willing charge more, and that consumers are willing to pay more is one of the best signals to detect that the economy is getting healthier. However, one good month does not prove anything, and next few months will tell if the Obama administration is succeeding in stopping the financial crisis.

Looking ahead to this week, the most crucial publication could be on Friday when the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product for December will be announced and is forecasted by analysts to deliver a rather disturbing figure; it is predicted to decline by 5.4%. Such a result could lead to an angry trading day, just before the week ends. Until then, the Housing Sector indicator and the weekly Unemployment Claims should play the leading role in this week's fundamental publications. Make sure you'll watch closely after each of them if you want to make the biggest profits possible from this week.


EUR

EUR/USD Aims to Breach a Significant Resistance Price Level

The European currency underwent a jumpy weekly session. With the beginning of the trading week, the EUR strengthened against all the major currencies, however a batch of unfortunate publications has eliminated most of it. During last night, the EUR appreciated sharply against the Dollar and the EUR/USD is currently testing the 1.30 level.

Last week took off with an extremely surprising indication as the German Economic Sentiment dropped by 5.8 points, beating expectations for a 26.5 slide. Although the figure was still negative, it significantly better than expected and managed to spark a strong bullish trend for the EUR. However, by the end of the week both the French and the German economies have delivered some disturbing data. The French Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 35.4 marks, failing to reach expectations for a 35.4. The German Services PMI declined to 41.6, well beneath expectations for a 45.0 mark.

As for this week, the most significant data expected from the Euro-Zone is the German Business Climate, published by the Institute for Economic Research. This indicator tends to have a massive impact on the market, and is expected to give an 83.2 mark. This forecast is well under the levels seen only few months ago, which were always above 100. Such result will probably support the current bearish trend of the EUR.

Other data to look after this week are the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI), the German Unemployment Change, and the European Core CPI. All are expected to deliver relatively positive result, which could very much initiate an uptrend for the EUR before the week ends.


JPY

Yen May Continue to Depreciate in the Long-Term

Last week the Yen continued to weaken against the major currencies. Its sharpest drop was against the EUR; however it saw bearish trends against the Dollar and the Pound as well.

Last week was filled with significant data economic data from Japan. The Japanese Preliminary Gross Domestic Product dropped by 3.3%. The contraction was the third quarter in a row of negative economic growth. This is the broadest measure of economic activity and as long as it continues to deliver negative figures, the JPY will most likely depreciate further. As expected, the Bank of Japan ruled to keep the Interest Rate at 0.10% - the lowest rate in the western world. It seems that the Japanese leaders will do anything they can to prevent the JPY from strengthening further. Traders should consider using this opportunity to open long-term short position on the JPY.

In the meantime, on Tuesday night the Japanese Trade Balance is expected to slide to -0.49T. The Japanese economy is largely dependant on its exports and such result is devastating for it. If this figure is accurate the Yen could drop sharply as a result. Also interesting will be the Japanese Retail sales and the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index that will be published on Thursday night, and traders are advised to follow them.


OIL

Stock Markets Trends Dictate Crude Oil Prices

Crude Oil is continuing to trade around $40 a barrel. It appears that investors have correlated their investment on Crude Oil with the leading global stock markets. As long as the leading economies will continue to deliver worrying news that will damage equity markets, Crude Oil will probably retain its low price level.

In addition, Oil consumption predictions for this year are decreasing over and over again in light of the deepening global recession, and rumors that OPEC will decide to make another production cut has been circling once again.

This week traders should follow very carefully after data from the leading stock markets as they have proved to dictate Crude Oil prices lately.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair is in the midst of a very strong bullish trend, as it has just breached through the 1.2900 level. After a few failing attempts to test the 1.2940 level, the pair seems ready now to cross another psychological boundary. Should the breach occur, the pair will most likely see further bullish behavior


GBP/USD
The pair gained almost 150 pips since the weekend, and is now traded around the 1.4600 level. The bullish momentum was originated at the lower border of the Bollinger Bands, meaning that there is still more room left for this trend. Going long seems to be a good choice today.


USD/JPY
The 4 hour chart is showing that the pair's bullish momentum is reversing itself, and has turned to be bearish. The bearish cross on the daily Slow Stochastic strengthens the pair's downtrend, which might see a valid target price at 92.49.


USD/CHF
Ever since the pair reached its peak of over 1.1850, it's been showing bearish momentum exclusively. As all oscillators on the hourly chart are providing bearish signals, a breach through the 1.1400 level will probably validate another downwards move, with the new possible target price of 1.1300.

Labels: , , , , ,

Friday, February 20, 2009
Feb-20 Daily Forex Analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Volatility continues as Dow Hits 6-Year Low

The Dollar recorded another day of volatile trading on Thursday, as the U.S. equity market took a beating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a six year low yesterday. One of the main reasons for this was the U.S. banking shares hitting a 17 year low. The shares of banks, such as Bank of America and Citigroup slid by 14% respectively. Equity markets can be used to measure the amount of risk in currency markets. This was reflected in yesterday's trading of the USD.

Throughout the Japanese and European trading sessions, the EUR/USD steadily appreciated, touching on a high of 1.2759. But as the New York markets opened, the pair began a sharp reversal, ending the day near close to its opening level of 1.2591.

The Dollar also closed up vs. the Pound from 1.4269 to 1.4214. Britain's currency is still very sensitive to developments in the U.S. This was also helped by a recorded swell in Britain's money supply earlier today, and an increase in the U.S. PPI. Both of these therefore helped support the greenback. Against the JPY, the Dollar rose over 65 pips to close at 94.10 as investors continue to back the greenback's safe-haven status vs. the JPY.

Traders are advised to pay close attention to Core U.S. CPI figures that are set to be published at 13:30 later today. The results of this may help keep the Dollar's strength going into next week's trading. It is also advisable to follow how Obama's meeting with President Harper of Canada is displayed in the media prior to the opening of U.S. markets. The reason why this is important is because Obama spoke about his opposition of protectionism, contradicting his campaign remarks. Therefore, the Dollar may go bullish as investors realize he is even more of a capitalist than his Republican predecessor.


EUR

EUR Recovers from 3-Month Low against Dollar, then Reverses

The European currency made bullish gains against its major currency pairs in yesterdays trading. The most notable event in EUR trading was the European currency's recovery against the USD as it hit a 3-month low in Wednesday's trading. The EUR's strength in early Thursday's trading was owed to a number of factors, including German Finance Minister Peter Steinbruck tough rhetoric that Germany would back emergency measures to prevent the Euro-Zone economic situation from deteriorating further.

The EUR rose significantly but then reversed by nearly 160 pips against the USD to close at 1.2591. This was also helped by the Dow and U.S. banking stocks hitting lows not seen in over 6 years. The Pound lost over 60 pips against the EUR in yesterday's trading to close at the 0.8858 mark. Some of this may be owed to Britain's sensitivity to America's weak banking sector. Against the JPY, the EUR rose by nearly 100 pips to close at 118.52. This comes about as Japanese equities declined and Japanese exporters reported that they may be shipping jobs abroad.

Today, there are many news events coming out of the Euro-Zone and Britain. From the Euro-Zone, investors are advised to follow the release of the Flash Services PMI and the Flash Manufacturing PMI figures set to be released at 9.00 GMT. Britain is set to release Retail Sales figures at 9.30 GMT. The results of these data releases may set the pace for the EUR and Pound going into the beginning of next week's trading.


JPY

JPY Safe-Haven Status Comes under Threat

The JPY's safe-haven status came under threat again yesterday, as Japan's economy has become increasingly volatile to the global recession. Japanese equities slid yesterday as exporters reported more bad news owing to the strong Yen. Japanese carmaker Nissan said that it may export 130,000 jobs to Mexico. Additionally, the Yen also reacted negatively to the U.S. Stock Market dive, leading the Nikkei to dive 1.2% too. In the last few days of trading the Dollar has made some big gains against the JPY. This is mainly due to the fact that investors and forex traders are of the view that the Dollar will be the number 1 safe-haven currency during the current global recession.

The JPY dived against the Dollar by 60 pips to close at 94.10. The Yen lost over 100 pips vs. the EUR, marking its second straight loss against the European currency. Against the GBP, the JPY lost over 60 pips to close at 133.97. There is a possibility that the Yen's behavior against its major currency counterparts in recent days may be partly owed to a correction in the value of the Yen. Therefore, this may not be as bad as it first seems. If things continue like this, however, then the Yen may help Japan's economy recover quicker out of recession. Today, forex traders are advised to follow events coming out of Japan, the Euro-Zone, and the U.S., as these may help set a price level for the Yen against its major currency crosses going into the middle of next week.


OIL

Crude Oil Spikes on Better Inventory Data

Oil prices went to as high as $40.23 in yesterdays trading. However, by the close of trading the black gold was trading near $39.466, holding gains of nearly $2 from Wednesday's closes. One of the main factors contributing to Oil's gains was the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Data. Crude stocks declined by 0.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had forecasted a rise in inventories by 2.9 billion. The other 2 factors that may have played in to Crude's strength on Thursday were the Dollar's weakness in early trading and a possible price correction in the black gold.

Crude prices may extend their gains today as investors may perhaps pursue take profits. This volatility of Oil in today's trading is strongly dependent on Euro-Zone and U.S. data releases. Also, Crude may go bullish if investors feel that President Obama can handle the complex U.S. recession. The highest that Oil prices could reach by the end of today's trading may be $41.00. If prices do hit this mark, they are likely to drop very quickly below $39 a barrel, as there is not enough confidence and physical demand to uphold this price level.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The Daily chart's showing that the pair is still in bearish configuration. However, a bullish cross on hourly chart's Slow Stochastic implies that an upwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


GBP/USD
Narrow range trading continues as the pair did not make a significant move in either direction, and is currently traded around the 1.4220 level. The hourly chart's Slow Stochastic is showing a fresh bullish cross suggesting that upwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/JPY
The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 94.15 level. The daily chart's RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. Going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/CHF
The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the hourly chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-20 market commentary and technical levels

Fri, 20th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The ascending triangle that I showed yesterday gave us a valid bullish correction warning. The pair corrected higher, topped at 1.2761 and but failed to close above key level 1.2700. On hourly chart we have a new bullish channel but the price is now testing channel support to the downside. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bearish in longer term. Important support at this phase is 1.2615. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.2470 area. Initial resistance at 1.2760 area. Break above that level could trigger further bullish correction towards 1.2900 area. CCI in neutral area on hourly chart.

eurusdhourly9

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2547
  • S2= 1.2420
  • S3= 1.2313
  • R1= 1.2781
  • R2= 1.2888
  • R3= 1.3015

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4444 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair quickly whipsawed to the downside and closed at 1.4291. Fibonacci retracement study on hourly chart below show us that after hit bottom at 1.4090 the pair was corrected to the upside but failed to break the 38.2% resistance and now go back lower below 1.4300 (23.6%). The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4130 and 1.4090 but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

gbpusdhourly3

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4182
  • S2= 1.4073
  • S3= 1.3942
  • R1= 1.4422
  • R2= 1.4553
  • R3= 1.4662

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish scenario yesterday. The pair topped at 94.46 and closed at 94.20. On 4h chart we still have a valid bullish channel. Fibonacci retracement study show us that the pair is now testing the 38.2 % around 94.60 area (potential double top formation). The bias remains bullish in nearest term. Break above 94.60 area could trigger further bullish scenario testing 97.00 (50%).

usdjpy4hchart7

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 93.52
  • S2= 92.84
  • S3= 92.37
  • R1= 94.67
  • R2= 95.14
  • R3= 95.82

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1701 and closed at 1.1731. On hourly chart we have a minor bearish channel and the price is now testing major bullish channel support. A breakdown of the bullish channel could trigger further bearish pullback. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1650. Initial resistance at 1.1825. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

usdchfhourly4

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1678
  • S2= 1.1576
  • S3= 1.1503
  • R1= 1.1853
  • R2= 1.1926
  • R3= 1.2028

Labels: , , , , ,

Thursday, February 19, 2009
Feb-19 Daily Forex Analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Jumps on Safe Haven Trading

After a relatively negative news day, the USD still managed to appreciate against most of its currency counterparts. Analysts have declared a decreased risk appetite and market uncertainty as the culprits. The loss of risk appetite means that most traders are waiting for more steady market conditions before taking a position in higher yielding currencies. There is too much uncertainty right now with the various bailout plans. This factor has produced the recent "wait and see" attitude in the forex market. On top of that, we have negative figures such as yesterday's Building Permits, which also adversely affect the market.

The price contraction has brought new fears after the cheapening of Oil and other raw materials because it could trigger deflation. In yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes, Fed officials said that they lack the ability to counteract a deflationary spiral because Interest Rates are already too low. Deflation is considered for many as a danger to the economy. The resulting fall in prices may lead to consumers and businesses holding off on further purchases in expectations of even lower prices, sending the economy down a dangerous path. In addition, the Fed also pointed during its meeting that the committee held its Interest Rate near zero to prevent further damage to the already weak economy

USD trading will be interesting today as another batch of important economic data is expected to be released. Similar to yesterday, the news will start at 13:30 GMT with a series of economic indicators being released starting with PPI figures, unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Surprisingly, almost all of these releases are expected to be higher than their previous figures meaning the USD could continue to show further bullishness today. Traders should stay close to the market today, as there is a strong chance to capitalize on the fluctuations which will likely follow these releases.


EUR

EUR Suffers from European Banking Woes

The EUR saw very little change in its overall value against the other currencies yesterday. While continuing with its recent downward trend, it has managed to remain rather calm in light of recent news from the Euro-Zone market. The EUR fell against the USD for a fourth day as the pair closed at 1.2500 levels. The 15 nation currency experienced similar behavior against the GBP as the pair dropped from 0.8920 to 0.8810 by days end.

Western European banks may be more severely hurt by an economic slowdown in Eastern Europe. These banks have lent to companies in Eastern Europe, investments that were sound as Eastern Europe's economy grew at robust rates during the boom period of 2003-2005. But now recessions in these nations will threaten debt service capabilities, hurting Western Europe's banks, which will weigh on the EUR and GBP

There will only be one data release from EZ today as the Italian Trade Balance will be announced during early trading. This indicator tends to have a relatively small impact on the market. A rising trend will have a positive effect on the nation's currency. In addition, traders should pay close attention to the response of equity market to determine how to continue with EUR positions.


JPY

JPY Corrects as the Currency Falls out of Favor with Traders

The Yen continued to depreciate as investors are choosing the Dollar over the Yen for a safe haven trade. The JPY fell against the USD and closed around 93.65. Moreover; the Japanese Yen lost almost 150 pips versus the EUR, closing at 117.70 and just around 200 pips versus the GBP.

The world's second-largest economy shrank at the steepest pace since the 1974 oil shock last quarter as a global slowdown triggered record declines in exports and output. Gross domestics' product dropped an annualized 12.7% last quarter, more than twice as fast as declines in the U.S. and Europe. The economy may suffer a bigger contraction in the current quarter, which could weigh on the JPY.

Looking ahead today, the Japanese market should have a heavy effect on the JPY versus its major currency counterparts, as the Overnight Call Rate will be announced today The rate is expect to remain unchanged but traders should pay close attention to the BoJ Press Conference that will follow to look for expectations of Japan's economic future. Later tonight, the monthly All Industries Activity Index is expected to be released with a negative figure. This should add bearish momentum to the Yen against its counterparts. If Crude Oil prices change drastically following the Crude Oil Inventories release, expect some more volatility on the JPY.


OIL

Crude Oil Traders Await U.S. Inventory Data

Crude Oil prices experienced another day of depreciation as the oft-traded commodity dropped below $38 in this morning's early trading session. Oil prices traded down for the second straight day. Much of the bearish movement in Crude Oil can be attributed to fears of a drop in fuel consumption due to poor economic outlook in the major world economies.

With economic growth slowing in the U.S. and Europe, and another month of falling service industry numbers, Crude Oil may continue to see a depreciating value. As for today, the U.S. Crude Oil inventories figures will be released. Expectations show a drop to 2.9M from last week's excessive 4.7M. Traders can, and should, expect wide market volatility around the 14:00 GMT release of these inventories figures because of Crude Oil's recent drop below the $40 price level.


Technical News

EUR/USD
There appears to be a bullish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating that an upward correction is expected in the near future. However, almost all other oscillators are stuck in neutral territory, signaling that this pair may be less volatile than expected. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.


GBP/USD
A bearish cross on the 4-hour chart is forming, signaling a potential price drop, while the Bollinger Bands are also tightening, pointing to an imminent volatile price movement. However, the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicates a recent bullish cross, signaling a possible upward movement. In the short-term traders may expect a downward correction, but longer-term traders may want to maintain their long positions today.


USD/JPY
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI and there appears to be an imminent bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic, indicating a downward correction may occur soon. The price also appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the daily chart's RSI which also lends support to this notion. Going short might be the right choice today.


USD/CHF
The pair has been range-trading for a while now with no specific direction. The daily chart's Slow Stochastic is providing us with mixed signals, however it's Bollinger Bands are tightening, implying that a violent breach may take place. Until that will happen, 4 hour chart reflects quite a stable fluctuation within a flat channel thus providing traders a chance to make profits from buying on dips and selling on lows.

Labels: , , , , ,

Feb-19 market commentary and technical levels

Thu, 19th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The pair opened at 1.2581 and closed at 1.2526. The pair is now traded around 1.2560 at the time I wrote this comment. On hourly chart we have bearish market scenario but we also have an ascending triangle formation, so watch out for a potential minor bullish reversal. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bearish in medium term. Immediate resistance at 1.2650 – 1.2700 area. Initial support at 1.2500. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.2300 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

eurusdhourly8

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2478
  • S2= 1.2430
  • S3= 1.2351
  • R1= 1.2605
  • R2= 1.2684
  • R3= 1.2732

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD failed to break from the rectangle formation yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4090 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.4208, made a Doji candlestick formation on daily chart indicating indecisive market. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.4300. Break above that level could trigger further bullish momentum. Initial support at 1.4130 followed by 1.4050. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

gbpusd4hchart10

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4100
  • S2= 1.3992
  • S3= 1.3894
  • R1= 1.4306
  • R2= 1.4404
  • R3= 1.4512

USDJPY Outlook
After break to the upside of 92.70, the USDJPY made a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 93.95 and closed at 93.79. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 94.60 but remains neutral in medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 93.90. Initial support at 92.30. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdjpy4hchart6

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 92.60
  • S2= 91.41
  • S3= 90.74
  • R1= 94.46
  • R2= 95.13
  • R3= 96.32

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1825 and closed at 1.1780. However the pair was traded lower early today in Asian session at 1.1735 at the time I wrote this comment. On 4h chart we can see that the pair made a false breakout of the ascending triangle formation and moved lower back inside the triangle. CCI just cross the 100 line down supporting potential downside pressure. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.1825 (yesterday’s high). Initial support at 1.1715 followed by 1.1650.

usdchf4hchart7

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1678
  • S2= 1.1576
  • S3= 1.1503
  • R1= 1.1853
  • R2= 1.1926
  • R3= 1.2028

Labels: , , ,

Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Feb-18 Daily Forex Analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Greenback Broadly Extends Gains

The Dollar continued to benefit on Tuesday amid heightened worries about the global economy and investors' concern that Euro-Zone banks are highly exposed to financial turmoil in Eastern Europe. The greenback was also pushed higher after President Barack Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus bill into law yesterday. The bill passed both houses of Congress on Friday.

The U.S currency rose 1.4% yesterday to end the day at 1.2595 per EUR after earlier appreciating as high as 1.2564, its highest level since December 4th. Against the Japanese currency, the USD rose 0.8% to 92.44 Yen, not far from a one-month peak at 92.75 hit earlier today.

Although the U.S. economic data has painted a grim picture, with the New York Federal Reserve reporting its manufacturing activity index plunged to a record low this month, analysts say that the Dollar still remains just about the only short-term alternative for investors. It appears that foreign demand returned to U.S. securities in December, supported by ongoing safe-haven buying of Dollar-denominated deposits. As the market focuses on bad news from Eastern Europe, which plays an important role in the weakness of the EUR, and on the slide in Japan's GDP, investors seek the relative safety of the greenback, hence broaden USD gains.


EUR

EUR Falls on Eastern Europe Concern

The Euro-Zone currency was traded near a 10-week low against the Dollar after a credit agency said it may cut the ratings of several banks with units in Eastern Europe, adding to concern that financial turmoil will deepen. The agency stated that the combination of higher provisions for bad debt, the rise in bank borrowing costs, and falling currencies, would weigh on the profitability of the banks concerned and erode their capital base. As a result, the EUR is likely to further extend its losses versus the greenback and the Yen on speculation the currency will fall on renewed concerns about credit markets, making the U.S. and Japanese currencies more attractive as havens.

The EUR was traded at 1.2579 from 1.2582 late in New York yesterday. It also was down at 116.31 Yen from 116.27. The European currency was also lowered 1.3% against the British pound to 88.45 pence per EUR yesterday after the Office for National Statistics said inflation slowed last month, prompting analyst speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce the pace of Interest Rate cuts.

Analysts now say that the main reason for the EUR weakness is from worry not only about the European regional economy but specifically those in Eastern Europe where currencies are falling rapidly across the board. The EUR was also under pressure on growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will ultimately have to play catch up on rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Market players anticipate Euro-Zone Interest Rates to fall below 1.0% later this year, with a cut to a record low of 1.5% in March.


JPY

Japanese GDP Data Increases Recession Fears

Japan's economy, only months ago, forecast to be the best performing among the world's most advanced nations, has now become the worst. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrunk an annualized 12.7% last quarter, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. Japan's government is struggling to cope with the economic crisis, and may expand its stimulus plans by 20 trillion Yen to 30 trillion Yen to fund a supplementary budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2009. The second blight on the Japanese economy is the surge in the Yen currency. The JPY has climbed 17% in the past year; in today's trading the currency was at 92.44 per USD.

As the global financial crisis deepened, investors reduced their carry trades, where they borrowed in low-yielding currencies to invest in nations where interest rates exceeded Japan's. Investors' focus is on whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will come out with specific policies to lower term rates. The BOJ has already cut its benchmark Rate to 0.1%, from 0.5% in October, in a bid to help spur the faltering economy. According to several analysts the BOJ policy-makers will likely keep borrowing costs unchanged on February 19th, leading the JPY to continue with its recent trends.


Oil

OPEC to Discuss Production Cuts; Oil Demand Falling

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is looking to reduce oil supply further if demand is insufficient to absorb supplies, oil ministers said on Tuesday. OPEC, supplier of more than a third of the world's oil, has raced to cut supply to match falling demand from a slowing global economy. OPEC next meets in March to discuss supply. Crude Oil Prices have fallen by more than $110 from the peak seen last July's to now trade at $38 a barrel on Tuesday. Oil has mostly traded in a $35 to $45 range since December.

Analysts say that the economic outlook will continue to dominate the first half of 2009. The United States, Euro-Zone and Japan are all in synchronized recession, which is depressing fuel demand and sending Crude Oil prices down sharply from its record highs. Traders should watch for U.S. crude oil inventories data to be released by the American Petroleum Institute later on Wednesday and by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday. These will give an indication to the reserves held by large energy consumers like the United States.


Technical News

EUR/USD
A bullish cross appears to have just taken place on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling an imminent bullish correction to the recent downward trend. The price also appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI which also lends support to this notion. Going long with tight stops might be the right choice today.


GBP/USD
The Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are tightening, signaling an imminent volatile price movement. With the recent bullish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, the imminent movement will likely be in an upwards direction. Going long with tight stops might be the preferable strategy today.


USD/JPY
After yesterday's volatile price movements, this pair appears to have temporarily calmed down. The price appears to be floating in neutral territory on most oscillators and momentum appears to be showing a flat price movement. Waiting for a clearer signal might be the right choice today.


USD/CHF
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the hourly chart's RSI, signaling an upward movement may occur in the near future. This pair, however, appears to be trading in a bullish channel. Traders can benefit by buying on the lows and selling on the highs of this up-trend.

Labels: , , , ,

Feb-18 market commentary and technical levels

Wed, 18th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After broke the triangle to the downside and move below 1.2700 support level, yesterday EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum. On hourly chart below we can see a good example how a combination between triangle breakdown and CCI cross could give us valid bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.2470 and 1.2370 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.2660 resistance area.

eurusdhourly7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2489
  • S2= 1.2400
  • S3= 1.2241
  • R1= 1.2737
  • R2= 1.2896
  • R3= 1.2985

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday. The pair hit my short target at 1.4130, bottomed at 1.4122 but quickly rebound to the upside and closed at 1.4235. On 4h chart we can see that price move in rectangle pattern indicating a consolidation. Break from the rectangle would give us clearer direction. I am expecting a breakdown and testing the key level at 1.4050 area once again. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.4122 (yesterday’s low). Break below that level could trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 1.4350. CCI in neutral area on both 4h and daily chart.

gbpusd4hchart9

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4135
  • S2= 1.4035
  • S3= 1.3949
  • R1= 1.4321
  • R2= 1.4407
  • R3= 1.4507

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 92.75 and closed at 92.41. Fibonacci retracement study show us that the pair is now testing 23.6% resistance at 92.70 area. Valid break above that level could trigger further bullish scenario testing 94.60 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but remains neutral in medium term. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pullback testing 92.00 area.

usdjpydaily1

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 91.75
  • S2= 91.09
  • S3= 90.59
  • R1= 92.91
  • R2= 93.41
  • R3= 94.07

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1776 but closed lower at 1.1691. On daily chart we have a ascending triangle pattern indicating a potential bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A break from the triangle would give us a clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1780 – 1.1800 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.1920 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.1650 and 1.1590 support area.

usdchfdaily1

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1596
  • S2= 1.1502
  • S3= 1.1412
  • R1= 1.1780
  • R2= 1.1870
  • R3= 1.1964

Labels: , , , ,