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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Feb-18 market commentary and technical levels

Wed, 18th of February, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After broke the triangle to the downside and move below 1.2700 support level, yesterday EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum. On hourly chart below we can see a good example how a combination between triangle breakdown and CCI cross could give us valid bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.2470 and 1.2370 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart so watch out for a potential upside rebound testing 1.2660 resistance area.

eurusdhourly7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.2489
  • S2= 1.2400
  • S3= 1.2241
  • R1= 1.2737
  • R2= 1.2896
  • R3= 1.2985

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday. The pair hit my short target at 1.4130, bottomed at 1.4122 but quickly rebound to the upside and closed at 1.4235. On 4h chart we can see that price move in rectangle pattern indicating a consolidation. Break from the rectangle would give us clearer direction. I am expecting a breakdown and testing the key level at 1.4050 area once again. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.4122 (yesterday’s low). Break below that level could trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 1.4350. CCI in neutral area on both 4h and daily chart.

gbpusd4hchart9

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4135
  • S2= 1.4035
  • S3= 1.3949
  • R1= 1.4321
  • R2= 1.4407
  • R3= 1.4507

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 92.75 and closed at 92.41. Fibonacci retracement study show us that the pair is now testing 23.6% resistance at 92.70 area. Valid break above that level could trigger further bullish scenario testing 94.60 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term but remains neutral in medium term. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pullback testing 92.00 area.

usdjpydaily1

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 91.75
  • S2= 91.09
  • S3= 90.59
  • R1= 92.91
  • R2= 93.41
  • R3= 94.07

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1776 but closed lower at 1.1691. On daily chart we have a ascending triangle pattern indicating a potential bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A break from the triangle would give us a clearer direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1780 – 1.1800 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.1920 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure testing 1.1650 and 1.1590 support area.

usdchfdaily1

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1596
  • S2= 1.1502
  • S3= 1.1412
  • R1= 1.1780
  • R2= 1.1870
  • R3= 1.1964

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