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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Feb-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3625 as a temporary reaction after The Fed decided to keep the interest rate low but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 1.3539. This fact should keep the bearish scenario intact. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the minor trendline support (yellow). Break below that trendline should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3444 – 1.3400 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3580 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The nearest bias is neutral but the main scenario remains bearish as price still move convincingly inside the bearish channel at least testing 1.5347 before targeting 1.5250 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5450/70 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing the upper line of the bearish channel. I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.76 but closed higher at 90.12. The nearest bias is neutral but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase after the violation of the bullish channel, which indicate bullish failure testing 89.50 even 88.50 area. Immediate resistance remains around 90.50/60 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
As you can see in my h4 below, the USDCHF still trapped in triangle area indicating consolidation phase but still in bullish outlook. I am expecting a clear breakout above the triangle to continue further bullish momentum targeting 1.1000 area. On the other hand, a break below the triangle should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear. Immediate support at 1.0750 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday indicating consolidation. The nearest bias is neutral but I still prefer a bearish scenario with sell on rallies strategy since the bullish channel violation indicates bullish failure testing 120.69 area. Immediate resistance at 122.59 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday indicating consolidation but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario after violation of the bullish channel indicates bullish failure, testing 138.23 area before aim for 137.30 area. Immediate resistance at 139.57 – 139.90 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8856 but closed significantly higher at 0.8934. This fact should lead us in no trading zone in nearest term. I still prefer a bearish scenario since the bullish channel violation indicates bullish failure but we need a consistent move below 0.8910 area to continue bearish scenario targeting 0.8780 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8980 followed by 0.9040.

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