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Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish continues, re-testing double bottom support around 1.4250/60 area

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4372 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 1.4273. This fact should keep the pressure on Euro re-testing 1.4250/60 support area today. The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.4172 – 1.4127 area today but we need consistent move below 1.4250/60 to continue the bearish scenario since we seems to have a double bottom support around that area as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.4350/70 area followed by 1.4400 – 1.4450 area. Break above 1.4450 area should be seen as potential threat to the bearish outlook.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6027 and closed at 1.6044 but has not convincingly stay below 1.6040/50 so far. The bias remains to the downside but I think price need to move consistently below 1.6040 – 1.6000 area to continue the bearish scenario towards 1.5800 area. We are at critical phase. Immediate resistance at 1.6100 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended at this phase.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.22 and closed at 91.15. On my h4 chart below we can see that price is convincingly move above 90.70/80 area indicating potential further bullishness targeting 92.32 area. Immediate support at 90.70/80 area. Break below that area should be seen as a false breakout and could trigger significant bearish momentum.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0481 and closed at 1.0459. The bias remains to the upside targeting 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700 area but we need consistent move above 1.0450 area to continue the bullish scenario. Another movement below 1.0450 area should lead us into no trading zone but short position is not recommended at this phase.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 130.36 and closed at 130.11. On h4 chart below we can see that overall price still trapped in range area of 129.00 – 131.75 area but price slipped above my minor trendline resistance (now support) indicating the pressure is more to the upside now targeting 131.75 area. A good technical set up and risk-reward ratio for me with stop loss below the trendline.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.46 and closed at 146.25. Overall price still trapped in range area of 144.85 – 146.80 but the pressure should remains to the upside. However we need a valid break above 146.80 area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.45 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 144.85 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continue its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8782 and closed at 0.8800. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 0.8650 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8850 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended at this phase. I prefer short on rallies strategy.

audusdh4

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Monday, December 21, 2009
Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: 1.4250 support area hold, technical bearish remains intact

The EURUSD made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4260 but closed higher at 1.4336. The rejection to move below key support level 1.4250 was not a surprise for me. It was a “normal” upside correction on weekend after a significant bearish week, and overall the bearish scenario still in control, reflected on the bearish channel (red channel) as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.4170 – 1.4127 area, which is an important support area in longer term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4400 – 1.4450 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains to the downside but like I said on Friday, 1.6100 – 1.6040 area is a potential strong support area. We are in critical technical phase now. Break below 1.6040 area should trigger further bearish momentum at least testing 1.6000 psychological level and potentially lead us into a new bearish phase with 1.5800 as potential bearish target in longer term. Immediate resistance at 1.6170 followed by 1.6250 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.90 but failed to break below 88.80 key support area and whipsawed to the upside, closed significantly higher at 90.47. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a case of a false breakdown from my trendline supports (red, blue) which could trigger significant bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact. I am in a buy mode but the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need consistent movement above 90.70/80 area to continue bullish towards 91.31 even 92.30 area. Immediate support at 90.10. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but as long as price move above the blue trendline support, I still prefer a bullish scenario.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement on Friday. Price failed to consistently move above 1.0450 area and closed lower at 1.0424. This can be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish correction at this phase, but since that happened on a Friday when people may just taking profit on the weekend, the false breakout strategy may not valid this time. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the bullish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0350. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0230 and should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
My decision to stand aside on Friday saved me from a losing trade as this pair was technically a mess. The pair failed to continue its bearish momentum, topped at 130.00 and closed at 129.69. I think I will keep stay away from this pair as I can not see clear direction. Aggressive traders may place a long position around 129.00 support area with tight stop loss below it targeting 130.70.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a volatile movement on Friday. Generally price had a bullish momentum after the false breakdown as you can see on h4 chart below. I do not like a high volatile market since for me it indicates a relative equal bullish and bearish power which give me only 50-50 probability. However technically the bullish scenario should remains intact and I prefer a bullish scenario with 146.80 as the nearest target. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and take us into new bullish phase targeting 148.50 area. On the downside 144.85 and the trendline support area should be a key support level at this phase. Consistent movement below the trendline should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish pressure at least re-testing 143.75 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.8809 but closed higher at 0.8897. I think this was a normal upside pullback. On h4 chart below we can see that price is able to stay below key level 0.8915 indicating potential bearish continuation at least targeting 0.8750 area. Break above 0.8915 area should lead us into no trading zone but overall the bearish scenario should remains in control and long position is not recommended at this phase.

audusdh4

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Friday, December 18, 2009
Dec-18 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Next target at 1.4250, CCI divergence and potential profit taking on Friday might produce upside correction

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4303 and closed at 1.4348 after break below 1.4500. The bias remains to the downside targeting at least 1.4250. However, as you can see on my daily chart below we have CCI divergence indicating potential upside minor correction and potential profit taking activity on Friday testing 1.4450 resistance area, but long position is not recommended at this phase. Break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.4170 area and potentially testing 1.4000 support area in longer term point of view.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6078 and closed at 1.6162. The bias is more to the downside now. We seem to have a good historical support around 1.6100 – 1.6040 area. On daily chart below we have CCI divergence indicating potential upside minor correction and potential profit taking activity on Friday testing 1.6250 resistance area. Consistent move below 1.6100 – 1.6040 area should trigger further bearish pressure testing psychological level 1.6000 before technically targeting 1.5800 in longer term point of view.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, break below two trendline supports (blue, yellow) as you can see on my h4 chart below, but found support around 88.80 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term since we are in critical technical point and this fact should be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook. Consistent move below those trendlines and below 88.80 area should be seen as bullish failure at least testing 87.35 area. Resistance is seen at 90.40/70 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0507 but corrected significantly earlier today in Asian session traded around 1.0420 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias should remains to the upside but we have CCI divergence indicating potential upside minor correction and potential profit taking activity on Friday testing 1.0380 – 1.0320 area. We need consistent movement above 1.0450 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.0700.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below two trendline supports (blue, red). This fact should be seen as bullish failure and a bearish reversal scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 126.86 area but we have potential hammer formation as you can see on my h4 chart below, indicating potential upside correction. The candle is not complete yet at the time I wrote this comment. Immediate resistance at 129.00 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone. I think I will stand aside for now.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum after failed to move consistently above 146.80 area, bottomed at 144.64, closed at 145.27. Price attempted to push lower, hit 143.74 earlier today in Asian session but further bearish pressure was rejected, traded around 144.85 area at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that price made a false breakdown from the trendline support (red) which potentially trigger upside momentum and the bullish scenario should remains intact especially if price able to break above 144.85 re-testing 146.80 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8845 and closed at 0.8868. Price attempted to push lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 0.8809 but further bearish momentum was limited as price rebound higher around 0.8874 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias should remains bearish testing 0.8750 even 0.8500 in longer term point of view but CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 0.8915 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but overall the pressure is more to the downside at this phase.

audusdh4

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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Dec-16 What is the direction of highest probability today?

Events to watch for in the European morning session:

Eurozone PMI @ 09:00 GMT

UK Unemployment @ 09:30 GMT

Eurozone CPI @ 10:00 GMT

**Watch for the rate decision in the US later

Probability Studies:

eur

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4580
Bullish Probability above: 1.4580
Significant resistance: 1.4870
Significant support:1.4480

gbp

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6310
Bullish Probability above: 1.6310
Significant resistance: 1.6310, 1.6580
Significant support:1.6216, 1.5706

aud

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9060
Bullish Probability above: 0.9060
Significant resistance: 0.9060, 0.9175
Significant support:0.8916

jpy

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 89.07
Bearish Probability below: 89.07
Significant support: 89.07, 84.78
Significant resistance:90.00, 93.00

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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Dec-15 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Ascending triangle, a threat to the bearish scenario

The EURUSD was corrected higher yesterday. Although bullish correction should not be a surprise for us after significant bearish last week and the bearish scenario remains intact, as you can see on my h1 below, price is forming an ascending triangle formation, which is technically a bullish pattern which potentially could be a serious threat to my bearish outlook, especially if price break above the upper line of the triangle (around 1.4680 area) and violate the trendline resistance with upside target at least around 1.4820/00 area. However, if this ascending triangle bullish scenario fails and price violate the triangle to the downside, expect further bearish continuation towards 1.4530 even 1.4450 today.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6325 and closed at 1.6299. However, actually the pair is still in consolidation phase as price is now still moving in triangle area (I made some adjustments to the triangle). We need a break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Break above the triangle should be seen as serious threat to my bearish outlook testing 1.6400 while breakdown below the triangle should be seen as potential bearish continuation with target remains around 1.6113 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but the trendline support (blue) did a good job preventing further bearish pressure, keep the bullish scenario intact, as you can see on my h4 chart below. The pair is in consolidation phase and we need a clear break below trendline support or above the trendline resistance (yellow) to see clearer direction. Break below the trendline support should be a serious threat to the bullish outlook at least targeting 87.35 while break above trendline resistance should be seen as bullish continuation targeting 90.70 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0292 and closed at 1.0317. The pair is consolidating after significant bullish last week and the bullish scenario should remains intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart indicating potential further downside correction testing 1.0230 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.0120 – 1.0160 and should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook. On the upside, 1.0450 remains potential bullish target.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 129.16 but closed higher at 129.95. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish pressure, keep the bullish scenario intact so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stand aside for now. Expected range at 129.00 – 131.75.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY mad indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support (red) did a good job preventing further bearish attack, keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 144.85. Break above that area should trigger further upside momentum towards 145.64. Immediate support at 143.75 area and the trendline support area. Break below that area and below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum towards 141.99 area and cancel the bullish scenario. We might have a good place for long position if price move near the trendline support area with tight stop loss below it.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had moderate bullish momentum yesterday, but still failed to break above the trendline resistance area thus should keep the bearish scenario intact. On h4 chart below we can see that once again, price seems to reject to move above the trendline and 0.9180 area. For me, this fact give us a good short opportunity targeting 0.9090 – 0.9030 area with tight stop loss above the trendline resistance and 0.9180 area. Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio.

audusdh4

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Monday, December 14, 2009
Dec-14 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Targeting 1.4450, resistance at 1.4680 - 1.4715 area

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.4585 and closed at 1.4613. I am still in short mode for this pair with target at least 1.4450 even 1.4250 this week. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we might see some upside correction after significant bearish last week. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart suggesting potential upside correction testing 1.4680 – 1.4715 resistance area today. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing the trendline resistance area (aqua). Break above the trendline should lead us into no trading zone but could be a potential threat to my bearish outlook testing 1.4820/00 area.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement on Friday, formed another Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation phase since Wednesday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. However, on h4 chart below price has break below triangle formation indicating the pressure is more to the downside with technical target remains at 1.6113. Immediate resistance at 1.6270 followed by 1.6340 area. For me, only break above 1.6400 could be seen as potential threat to the bearish outlook. Below that level, I still prefer a bearish scenario for this pair.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The false breakdown from the major trendline support (red) gave us a valid bullish signal on Friday as price topped at 89.80 but closed a little bit lower at 89.10. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the bullish scenario should remains intact. As you can see on my h4 chart below, price is now testing the trendline support (blue, 1). Break below that trendline should be a serious threat to the bullish outlook at least targeting 87.35. Bullish continuation will be confirmed only if bullish pressure able to break above trendline resistance (blue, 2) targeting 90.70 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.0366 and closed at 1.0343. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I am in buy mode for this pair at this phase with nearest bullish target around 1.0450 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside pullback testing 1.0230 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone and could be a potential threat to the bullish outlook testing 1.0120 – 1.0160 area.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 131.57 but further upside momentum was rejected as the pair closed much lower at 130.21. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the trendline support (blue). Break below the trendline support should trigger further significant bearish momentum. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 129.00, but medium bias remains neutral and only consistent move below 129.00 could change my medium outlook into a bearish view. Immediate resistance at 131.00 followed by 131.75 area.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 145.64 but closed lower at 144.87 and continue moving lower around 143.58 area at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of false breakout above 144.85 which is potentially trigger further bearish momentum, especially if price break below the trendline (blue) towards 141.99 area. Immediate resistance at 144.85.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum after a false breakout above 0.9180 and the trendline resistance area and now traded around 0.9063 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9030 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 0.8915 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9180. As long as price stay below that area I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

audusdh4

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Friday, December 11, 2009
Dec-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Consolidation: Between trendline break (bearish) and CCI divergence (bullish)

The EURUSD has been consolidating in the last two days, moving in a triangle area as you can see on my h4 chart below. I am expecting a break from the triangle to take us out from consolidation phase and give us clearer direction whether price will bearish or bullish.

A. Bearish Side: Major trendline support breakdown. This fact give us technical bearish reversal view testing 1.4625 and 1.4450.

B: Bullish Side: CCI Divergence.This fact give us a technical bullish view at least testing 1.4820.

My opinion is that the bearish reversal scenario should remains intact with technical target around 1.4625 even 1.4450 but in the process, we might have some minor bullish pressure testing 1.4820 area. However if price break above 1.4820 and closed above that level this week, the bearish reversal scenario triggered by trendline support break could be in a serious threat and from longer term view could be seen as the end of bearish correction and continue the major bullish scenario at least re-testing 1.5140 area before aim for 1.5300.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also has been moving in a triangle formation in the last two days indicating consolidation. The trendline breakdown on Tuesday should keep the bearish scenario intact but we have a bullish warning from CCI divergence as you can see on h4 chart below so we might have some upside attempt testing 1.6400 resistance area but as long as price stay below that area the bearish scenario should remain intact with technical target remains around 1.6113 area. However, if price break above 1.6400 and close above that level today should be seen as a potential threat to the bearish view testing 1.6600.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday indicating consolidation after bearish momentum since Monday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the false breakdown from the trendline support can produce some bullish momentum testing 88.80 – 89.50 area. On the downside, initial resistance is seen at 87.35/10 area. Break below that area and consistent move below the trendline should trigger further bearish momentum towards 85.80.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday formed another Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we have CCI divergence which suggest potential downside view testing 1.0160 – 1.0120 but the bullish scenario after break above the major trendline resistance should remains intact with technical target around 1.0450 as long as price stay above 1.0160 – 1.0120 area. Break below 1.0120 could be seen as bullish failure and trigger bearish momentum re-testing 1.0000 level.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but the 129.00 support area still hold at this phase preventing further bearish attack and push price higher above the trendline indicating potential upside pressure testing 131.75 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term as price seems to consolidate now. Only a clear movement below 129.00 could continue further bearish scenario targeting 126.86 area.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but the 141.99 area seems to be a good support at this phase as price rebound higher above the trendline after touched that level indicating potential upside pressure testing 144.85 area. Immediate support at 143.30. Break below that area and a movement back below the trendline could trigger another downside attempt re-testing 141.99 support area. Break below 141.99 area could produce further bearish momentum targeting 139.27.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9189 but still unable to stay consistently above 0.9180 so far thus could produce a false breakout scenario which trigger bearish momentum testing 0.9030 area especially if price break below 0.9120/30 support area today. This pair is in critical technical point at this phase. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside view. Consistent move above 0.9180 should trigger further bullish momentum testing the trendline resistance area and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook testing 0.9327 area.

audusdh4

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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Dec-10 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4667 but further bearish momentum was limited as price closed higher at 1.4738. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that price still below 1.4820 area for me indicating further bearish pressure is potential with technical target remains around 1.4625 after breakdown below the major trendline support on Monday. Break below 1.4625 should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4450 this week. On the other hand, break above 1.4820 should be seen as potential threat to the bearish scenario testing 1.4950 area before aim for 1.5140 area once again.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.6165 but closed higher at 1.6285. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay below 1.6400 I still prefer a bearish scenario testing 1.6113 support area as potential downside target after breakdown below the trendline support on Tuesday. Only break above 1.6400 could be seen as potential threat to the bearish scenario which could trigger further bullish momentum back towards 1.6600 area.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 87.35 but closed a little bit higher at 87.98. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bearish correction scenario should remains intact. On h4 chart below we can see that price made a false breakdown below the trendline support which potentially produce some upside momentum testing 88.80 area. Immediate support at 87.35 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area and consistent move below trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum towards 86.60 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday formed a Doji on daily chart. A look at daily chart below reveals that the failure to consistently move below psychological level 1.0000 and violation to the trendline resistance indicating the pair maybe has reached the bottom at this phase. This fact is not necessarily a change of trend, not yet, but at least potential upside pullback scenario towards 1.0450 area, especially if break above 1.0337. On the downside, a break below 1.0120 – 1.0090 should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.0000 area.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 128.77 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair closed higher at 129.69 and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session around 130.17 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below 129.00 area and now back above the trendline indicating potential false breakdown which could trigger bullish momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term and it’s too early to say that the bearish momentum is over as overall, “safe haven currencies” like Yen and Dollar seems to benefit from risk aversion as traders become less optimistic about global recovery. Immediate resistance at 131.75 area. Initial support at 129.00 area. Break below that area should be seen as bearish continuation re-testing 126.86 area.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY bearish momentum was also limited yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakdown below the trendline support, price retreated to the upside testing the trendline support. This fact is often happen technically, but if price back to move above the trendline again should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 144.85 area. Break above that area should change the neutral medium bias to bullish. On the downside, it’s too early to say that the bearish is over as price still struggling around the trendline. “safe haven currencies” like Yen and Dollar seems to benefit from risk aversion as traders become less optimistic about global recovery. Immediate support at 143.10. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 141.99 even 141.02 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The CCI divergence gave us a valid warning about bullish pullback. Bearish momentum was paused as price moving higher around 0.9156 at the time I wrote this comment. The key resistance level at this phase is 0.9180 and the trendline resistance area. As long as price stay below the trendline resistance the bearish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 0.9090 followed by 0.9030. Break below those area could trigger bearish continuation towards 0.8915 area.

audusdh4

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