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Friday, February 26, 2010
Feb-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3451 but closed higher at 1.3549. On h1 chart below we can see that price has slipped above the minor trendline resistance (yellow) indicating potential upside correction testing the upper line of the minor bullish channel. The main scenario should remain bearish but the fact that price already in oversold area may produce some minor upside correction. Immediate resistance at 1.3625 area. Break above that area and violation to the minor bullish channel could trigger further upside momentum but note that overall the pair is still in a bearish mode. After Greek debt and financial problem, traders now concern about the potential economic problem in Spain which could continue to pressure the Euro in longer term. Initial support at 1.3500 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3400 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5189 but closed higher at 1.5263. The nearest bias is neutral but the main trend should remain bearish with technical target around psychological level 1.5000 in longer term and I am still in bearish mode for this pair. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside correction testing 1.5347 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Only violation to the bearish channel could be seen as a serious threat to the current bearish scenario testing 1.5560 area. Immediate support at 1.5189 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 88.79 and closed at 89.09 and corrected higher around 89.23 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should keep the bearish scenario intact with nearest technical target around 88.50 before aim for 87.40 area even 85.00 region in longer term. Immediate resistance at 89.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as we might have further upside correction testing 90.50 area but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish scenario yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price break above the triangle but whipsaw to the downside and now back in the triangle area indicating a false breakout which could trigger some bearish pressure. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone but the main outlook should remain bullish. Immediate support at 1.0750 – 1.0700 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 1.0600 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 119.64 but closed higher at 120.71 and keep moving higher around 121.04 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone area but the main outlook should remain bearish. On h4 chart below we can see that price is testing the upper line of the minor bearish channel. Although the main trend should remain bearish, violation to the minor bearish channel should trigger further upside correction testing 123.00 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 134.95 , closed higher at 135.99 and keep corrected higher around 136.23 at the time I wrote this comment. This fast should keep the bearish scenario intact with technical target around 131.50 area. The nearest bias is neutral as price already in extreme oversold area and show some signs of potential upside correction but as long as price stay below 137.30 I still prefer a bearish scenario today.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8801 but closed higher at 0.8881. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Immediate resistance at 0.8910/20 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 0.9040. Initial support at 0.8801 – 0.8780 area. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish scenario targeting 0.8576 area in longer term.

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