The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, peaked at 1.5140 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5037 and closed at 1.5053. The bullish scenario remains intact but price formed a double top formation around 1.5140 area indicating potential downside pullback testing 1.5000 – 1.4950/20 area. Break below 1.4950/20 area should trigger further bearish momentum retesting 1.4820 and the major trendline support area (red). We will have US NFP and unemployment rate today. Investors are concern about unemployment condition since high number of unemployment is widely considered as a serious obstacle for economy recovery. A disappointing result may wane investors’ confidence thus could trigger risk aversion and give some support to the Dollar. On the other hand, positive result may increase investors’ confidence and continue to weaken the Dollar, giving technical bullish a support to re-testing 1.5140/50 area. Break above 1.5140/50 area should trigger further bullish scenario at least targeting 1.5300.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price made a false breakout above the trendline resistance and violated the rising wedge formation to the downside indicating potential bearish view at least testing 1.6480 even 1.6400 area. Immediate resistance at 1.6600 and the trendline resistance area. Break above that area should cancel the bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me. Eyes on US NFP and Unemployment rate numbers today.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 88.47 and closed at 88.38. On h4 chart below we can see that we are now in critical technical point where price is now testing the major trendline resistance. A violation to the upside should be seen as a big bullish scenario in longer term back towards 90.60 even 92.27 area. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 88.80 area but CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 87.50 area. I still prefer buy the dips strategy.
USDCHF Forecast
My technical study didn’t worked smoothly yesterday. As you can see on h4 chart below, price slipped below my trendline support (blue) but failed to consistently stay below the trendline and now struggling around the trendline. Technically, although the bearish scenario remains intact, this fact could produce a false breakdown scenario thus could trigger significant bullish momentum testing 1.0120 area in nearest term. I think we are in no trading zone and I prefer to stand aside for now and wait for further development. On the downside, 0.9913 remains potential nearest target to be tested. Eyes on US NFP and Unemployment rate numbers today.
EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday as I had expected. The pair topped at 133.54 and closed at 133.05. Earlier today in Asian session price corrected lower bottomed at 132.48 but still able to maintain bullish momentum and traded around 132.95 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 134.00. Immediate support at 132.48 followed by 131.75. Buy the dips remains the best strategy for me.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY bullish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price retreat lower towards my minor trendline support (former resistance). Although a movement back towards the trendline after violation is normal and the trendline support still hold so far, this fact should be considered as potential threat to the bullish scenario, especially if price break below the trendline today, which could be considered as potential false breakout and trigger significant downside momentum testing 144.60 area. On the upside, 147.65 area remains a potential target support by Japanese government policy to weaken the Yen on fundamental side and hammer candlestick formation on technical side. I still prefer buy the dips strategy for this pair.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9321 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 0.9231. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now moving below my trendline support indicating potential false breakout scenario which could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9180 support area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 0.9100 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9270 followed by 0.9327 area.
