Monday, December 1, 2008
Dec-1 World Daily Markets Briefing
| by: ADVFN Newsdesk Forex FOREX-Yen gains; shrinking output raises investor caution LONDON - The Japanese yen strengthened broadly on Monday as slumping Chinese and European manufacturing activity kept investors on edge and dragged world share prices down. Yen strength also weighed heavily on currencies of countries where central banks are expected to slash interest rates later this week including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, whose key interest rates are a mere 0.3 percent, said it will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss changes in the use of corporate debt for collateral banks put up to access central bank funds. With economies already slowing sharply around the world sensitivity to output figures was high. Manufacturing activity in the euro area, which has already entered recession, hit a record low in November. Economic powerhouse China also saw its manufacturing industry slump in November as new orders, especially from abroad, tumbled. Resulting risk aversion took global share prices, as measured by MSCI's all country index, down 1 percent on the day, while yen gains against major rival currencies accelerated sharply. "The data is just so terribly poor that it's going to be difficult for any kind of period of sustained uptrend in confidence," said Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Currency Research at BTM UFJ in London. "Until we're through the deterioration in the data then the likelihood is that risk aversion will remain elevated and we'll see renewed interest in lower yielding currencies," he added. By 1150 GMT, the dollar was down 1.7 percent against the yen at 93.88 yen and the euro was down 1.9 percent versus the Japanese unit at 118.93 yen. The euro fell 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.2667, while sterling was off 2.2 percent against the greenback at $1.5045. Sterling's losses were exacerbated after British figures showing manufacturing activity had shrunk at a record pace. The Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are all expected to cut rates by at least half a percentage point, diminishing the yield advantage of their currencies over the ultra-low yielding yen. Analysts expect those four major central banks to cut rates aggressively to counter the threat of deflation and prevent the global financial market crisis from spilling over into further economic weakness. Yen crosses reflected those expectations, with sterling/yen, Australian dollar/yen and New Zealand dollar/yen all down more than 3 percent on the day. Analysts expect the RBA to cut its benchmark cash rate by 75 basis points to 4.50 percent on Tuesday. But data on Monday showing Australian inflation slowing much faster than earlier thought and manufacturing activity at record lows in November bolstered the case for a steeper cut in rates. The RBNZ is expected to lop a full 1.5 percentage points off its key rate to 5 percent, which would match the magnitude of the Bank of England's surprise cut last month. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BoE to follow that up with a more modest 50 basis point cut to 2.5 percent on Thursday, but futures traders are pricing in a more aggressive 100 basis point reduction. The ECB is expected to cut by half a percentage point on Thursday to 2.75 percent but the weakness of recent economic and inflation indicators is building the pressure for a deeper cut. The euro zone manufacturing sector, for example, contracted sharply in November, data showed on Monday. "Polls show economists are expecting the ECB to cut by 50 basis points but marketwise, there would be disappointment if the ECB did 50 basis points," said Steve Barrow, head of currency strategy at Standard Bank in London. Financial markets in the United States should return to normal liquidity and trading conditions on Monday following last week's Thanksgiving holiday. Investors will be keeping an eye on the November jobs report on Friday. Later on Monday the Institute for Supply Management releases its November manufacturing index. US Stocks at a Glance US STOCKS-Market tumbles on economy, spending angst NEW YORK - U.S. stocks tumbled at the open on Monday on concerns about the deepening world economic slump and investors feared that the start of the holiday buying season may be followed by weak consumer spending. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 262.68 points, or 2.98 percent, at 8,566.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 31.72 points, or 3.54 percent, at 864.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 48.78 points, or 3.18 percent, at 1,486.79. SNAPSHOT - Financial Crisis - 1455 GMT NEWS Eurozone manufacturing sinks to record low in November BOJ's Governor Shirakawa says Japan's economy stagnating rapidly, calls emer gency policy meeting Chinese manufacturing activity hits record low in November German retail sales, excluding car sales and gas stations, unexpectedly fall in October British manufacturing shrinks, mortgage approvals slide Nov car sales show auto crisis worsening Oil down more than $3 to below $52 a barrel after no cut at OPEC meeting. QUOTES "Today's data has intensified worries about the potential depth of the recession and has boosted the chances that the Bank of England will cut Bank rate by at least 100 basis points on Thursday." - economist James Knightley from Dutch bank ING. "I cannot tell you it will be a bright next day. The time& nbsp; for endurance has come." - Japan economics minister, Kaoru Yosano. "Another grim month for China manufacturing and the first in which the weakness in overseas demand overtook what, until now, has been mainly a domestic slowdown." - Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA. "Regardless of retail sales, retail profits are another matter. Every thing they sold was at a razor-thin margin." - Ellen Davis, spokeswoman for the U.S. National Retail Federation. EVENTS MONDAY, Dec. 1 WASHINGTON - Commerce Department issues construction spending for October at 1500 GMT. WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve issues weekly sel ected interest rates. THURSDAY, Dec. 4 WASHINGTON - Labor Department issues weekly Jobless Claims report at 1330 GMT. European News Banks, commods lead Europe shares lower at midday LONDON - European shares fell back at midday on Monday after recessionary concerns gripped investors with banks and commodities the biggest losers. By 1132 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 3 percent at 836.23 points. Mike Lenhoff, strategist at Brewin Dolphin said: "It has been a disappointing start to the week with bad news in all the European PMI figures, though hopefully this will mean further interest rate cuts in the UK and Europe." The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector slumped to 35.6 in November, a low not seen in the survey's 11-year history and well below the 36.2 flash reading and economists' forecasts. Philip Lawlor, strategist at Nomura, said: "It was a great week last week with the market on average up 10-12 percent. It is not a great deal of surprise to see a bit of profit taking. It is back to the reality of the economic outlook and its impact on corporate earnings. Investors are remaining very defensive." Banking stocks took the most points off the index, although stocks within the sector were mixed. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole slipped 2.7-6.3 percent after traders cited mounting worries over Brussels' green light to the French government's package for the ailing sector. Royal Bank of Scotland gave up earlier gains and was down 2 percent as Italian yellow pages publisher Seat Pagine Gialle said it had started talks with the group on "enhancing its financial flexibility" under an existing senior loan agreement. Irish banks were higher after the Irish Examiner reported that they will move in the coming weeks to facilitate investments of up to 10 billion euros in fresh capital from government, private equity and other sources. Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland were up 1.1 and 0.6 percent, respectively. Across Europe, the FTSE 100 index was down 2.3 percent, Germany's DAX was 3.3 percent lower and France's CAC 40 was down 2.5 percent. Energy stocks dropped as the price of crude retreated 4.5 percent after producer cartel OPEC decided to delay a decision on a third supply cut to its next meeting later in December as economic woes squeeze oil demand. BG Group, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, ENI and Total fell 2-3.4 percent. Miners were in the doldrums. Xstrata slipped 6.5 percent after the group said that it would temporarily suspend a further five ferrochrome furnaces at its joint venture with South Africa's Merafe Resources, raising the cuts in annual production to 906,000 tonnes. Anglo American, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton and Lonmin were down 3.6-11.4 percent. Steelmakers, Arcelor Mittal, ThyssenKrupp and Salzgitter were 5.1-8.4 percent lower after a profit warning from Finnish sector peer Rautaruukki. There were few risers, with investors turning to the more defensive sectors such as the pharmaceuticals for safety. SanofiAventis and GlaxoSmithKline were up 0.45-1.5 percent. Asia at a Glance December Brings Hope, Confusion; Honda, BHP Fall Asian stocks ended on a mixed note Monday, as investors weighed evidence the global slowdown is deepening, including data showing China's manufacturing activity contracted by a record amount in the past month, against signs stocks may already have weathered the worst of the bad news. Honda Motor Co.'s (HMC) shares led Japanese auto makers lower as the nation looks set for its weakest year of domestic auto sales in more than three decades. Honda shares ended 2.9% lower. Hong Kong stocks posted the biggest gains in the region, led by property stocks, as investors cheered weekend sales data pointing to a strong showing at several big-project releases. Tokyo investors were skittish after property developer Morimoto Co. filed for liquidation protection with $1.7 billion in debts. Shares of the firm were untraded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Sydney-listed shares of BHP Billiton (BHP) fell 3.6%, tracking declines in industrial metals prices late last week, and as crude-oil prices edged back down toward the $50 a barrel level in electronic trade Monday. Investors seemed to take few cues from the U.S. Friday, where shares rose in a holiday-shortened session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed 1.2% higher at 8,829, marking a 17% rise for the week and its best five-day percentage gain since 1932. Analysts said investors were moving into Hong Kong and China shares to take advantage of the market's tendency to rally in December. In 15 of the 20 years, the Hang Seng index has advanced in the month of December. "All negative news items are already priced in," said Alex Tang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi in Hong Kong, adding he expects the index could rise 1,000 to 2,000 points in the next four weeks. Sentiment toward China shares was also helped by a Xinhua report that China's Cabinet Office expects the mainland economy to expand 10% next year. Investors were also heartened by the stronger-than-expected turnout of U.S. shoppers during the weekend in what amounts to the traditional kick-off to the Christmas shopping season. Among currencies, the U.S. dollar weakened to 95.30 to the yen, down from 95.52 yen late Friday. Among regional indexes, Japan's Nikkei 225 ended 1.4% lower at 8,397.22, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.6% down at 3,681.20 and the South Korean Kospi gave up earlier gains, tumbling 1.6% to 1,058.70. Thai and Indian stocks both started the day on a stronger footing, but fell back into the red in late trade. Bangkok's SET Index was down 1.1% at 397.48 while Mumbai's Bombay Sensex index was down 2.9% at 9,302.18. Shanghai's Composite Index firmed 1.3% to 1,894.54, the Singaporean Straits Times Index fell 2.3% at 1,692.44 and the Taiwanese Taiex Index climbed 1.3% at 4,518.44. Analyst said the protracted political crisis in Thailand, which has seen Bangkok's main international airport closed since Tuesday, now risks choking the economy and deeply scaring the nation's reputation as an idyllic tourist destination. "The whole image of Thailand was destroyed by this," said fund manager and financial author Marc Faber, speaking on CNBC. "If you booked a holiday to Thailand over Christmas and the New Year and you are not sure about getting in and getting out, you are not going to go, it destroys business." Faber, who lives in northern Thailand, said he was holed up in Hong Kong awaiting the airport's reopening. Chinese retail stocks were standouts after a Xinhua report that Beijing will launch a nationwide program to subsidize farmers buying electronic appliances. The assistance program will reportedly rebate 13% of the cost of these goods. Hong Kong-listed shares of Haier Electronics jumped 56% while fellow appliance maker Skyworth Digital jumped 23.4%. A gauge of China's manufacturing activity in November, as compiled by brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, marked the sharpest contraction in the history of the survey, which began in 2004. The Purchasing Managers Index fell to 40.9 in November, from 45.2 in the preceding month, its fourth straight monthly decline. Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA, described the data as "grim" in a research note Monday, adding that it showed the global slowdown now overshadows what has until recently been a mainly domestic-led slowdown in the Chinese economy. "Export orders will weaken further and we expect further cuts in production and employment. Costs are plummeting but the benefit to margins is being offset by output price cuts as businesses try to protect market share," Fishwick wrote. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) fell 1.8%, those of Suzuki Motor Corp. fell 8.1%, while Nissan Motor Co. (NSANY) fell 2.8%. Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported over the weekend that slumping automotive sales in October and what's likely to be a soft November will put domestic sales on track for about 3.25 million vehicles this year, excluding mini vehicles, marking the lowest level in 34 years. Among gainers, shares of NTT DoCoMo were up 3.7% after a Nikkei report said that service provider Willcom Inc. will launch a discount, high-speed cellular data service using DoCoMo's wireless network in early 2009. Shares of exporter Li & Fung were down 1.6% after the company announced on the weekend it would buy German fashion retailer Miles Fashion Group for $51 million. Among standouts in Hong Kong's property sector, shares of Sun Hung Kai Properties (SUHJY), the city's biggest developer, added 1.7% Cathay Pacific Airway's (CPCAY) shares jumped 5.1% after the Hong Kong-based airline said it would defer construction of a new cargo terminal at the city's airport for two years. Light sweet crude-oil futures for January were down as much as $2.08 to $52.35 a barrel in electronic trading. On Friday, the then front-month December contract closed at $54.43 a barrel. Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading, Moving Average, World Market |
posted by Matbank at 4:37 PM
