Thursday, January 8, 2009
ForexYard indicator report
| by: Forexyard Be Prepared! U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT We at ForexYard encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures are expected on Friday, January 9th, at 13:30 GMT, and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. The majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, please read below. What is the Non-Farm Employment Change Report? The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as "Non-Farm Payrolls" (NFP) and the "Employment Report," is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. Each month, the Current Employment Statistics Program surveys about 150,000 businesses, representing approximately 390,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, work-hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls for all 50 U.S. states. The survey is then published on the first Friday of each month. The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month's market movement. Investors should also note Wednesday's 13:15 (GMT) release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.'s (ADP's) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past, ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release two days later. With the volatility of world economies in recent months, however, ADP has not been able to correctly estimate the Non-Farm Payroll outcome, only strengthening the real power behind Friday's news release. What Results might Push the USD Up? Expectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures are forecasted to be slightly better than last month's, with a release of -500K, up from -533K. While still a significantly negative figure, it nonetheless may indicate a relative employment increase in the non-farming sector. The recent economic struggle, which is being fought vehemently by the U.S. government, has created uncertainty in the market for the USD, which is driving its value to unpredictable highs and lows. This Non-Farm Employment Change report has delivered negative figures for several consecutive months now; an improved printing could actually lend strength to the USD, sending it on a bullish run. If that indeed happens, this would mean the USD could be facing a very fortunate weekend, causing the EUR/USD pair to sink back toward levels around 1.2900. Most important to watch, moreover, is whether this figure comes out better than its forecast. Such a release would send a euphoric shockwave through a battered market in dire need of good news. Such an event could potentially send the EUR/USD pair to as low as 1.2500. What Results might Take the USD Down? On the other hand, following last Wednesday's ADP survey that displayed a significant drop in employment data, the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report itself may indeed print a much lower-than-expected figure, signaling a battered and bruised U.S. economy that is still a long ways off from exiting this recession. If the actual figure will indeed be lower than forecasted, traders are likely to see a rather strong bearish run to the USD. Currently, investors are less certain about their positions on the USD as it appears to be floating in a directionless trend. However, in the situation where the survey delivers worse figures than expected, such as -650K instead of the forecasted -500K, investors might be compelled to reevaluate their strategies and go short on the USD. In this turn of events, the USD will likely halt any recent bullish movement, and the EUR/USD could drop toward levels of 1.4200 immediately following this release. Labels: Forex Analysis, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, World Market |
posted by Matbank at 11:47 PM
