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Friday, March 19, 2010

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the bullish channel indicating potential bullish failure testing 1.3530 area even 1.3450/30 key support level. The bias is bearish in nearest term however note that the bullish reversal scenario triggered by the triple bottom formation technically still provide technical bullish scenario. Only a break below 1.3450/35 area could be seen as “the real” bullish failure targeting 1.3100 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3670 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.3800/50 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5215 and closed at 1.5244 after unable to consistently move above 1.5350 area. This fact could trigger further bearish pressure but we need a consistent move below 1.5200 – 1.5185 psychological support area to confirm further bearish scenario targeting 1.5000/50 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5300. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario after violation to the major bearish channel intact but again, we need a consistent move above 1.5350 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.5530 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.0646 but closed lower at 1.0579. This fact should keep the bearish correction scenario intact but note that the major trend remains bullish. A clear break above 1.0640 area should bring the direction back to its major trend, bullish, towards 1.0888 area. Immediate support at 1.0507. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0420 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was volatile but indecisive (again) yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel but can not really convincingly move above the channel. While the major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price still move below the major trendline resistance, the bullish scenario is still alive and kicking especially if price manage to break above 91.50 area, take us into a new bullish phase. Immediate support at 90.00 followed by 89.50.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the bullish channel indicating potential threat to the bullish scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below 123.00 – 122.50 area to confirm the bearish scenario targeting 121.70 even 119.70 area. From a longer term point of view, I believe that only a break below 119.70 area could be seen as the continuation of the major bearish scenario testing 117.50 even 112.10 area. Immediate resistance at 123.90. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 125.15 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The fact that price still move inside the minor bullish channel indicating the bullish correction remains intact, but so far price is unable to stay consistently above 138.30 area indicating potential false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish momentum testing the lower line of the minor bullish channel as bullish momentum wanes. Another movement above 138.30 should keep the bullish correction intact testing 141.50 region. Immediate support at 137.00. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 136.00 area and could be a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario re-testing key support level at 132.50/00 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, still trapped in range area of 0.9250 – 0.9140. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction towards 0.9326 or 0.9040. However, as long as price still move above the major trendline support (white) I still prefer a bullish scenario as the major trend is bullish. Technically, 0.9140 and 0.9040 area is the best places for a long position.

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