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Monday, March 15, 2010
Mar-15 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant technical movement on Friday by break above the major bearish channel, confirms the bullish reversal scenario after formed triple bottom formation around 1.3450/35 area. While technical outlook is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.3850 before aim for 1.4025/50 region, on fundamental side Euro is supported by rising risk appetite but note that the we have not seen convincing solution on Greek debt crisis so actually the fundamental foundation for Euro bullishness remains fragile and any negative news from the Euro zone or the US could weigh on the Euro and be a potential threat to the technical bullish view as risk aversion could increase and give advantage to the Dollar. Immediate support at 1.3700. Break below that area should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing 1.3550/30 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.5216 and closed at 1.5183. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is in critical technical phase as price is ready to test the upper line of the bearish channel. The bias is bullish in nearest term but note that only break above the upper line of the bearish channel could be seen as bearish failure and a news bullish phase. As long as price still move inside the bearish channel, the major bearish scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 1.5120. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5000/50 area and keep the major bearish scenario intact. Initial resistance at 1.5250. Consistent move above that area could be seen as bearish failure with technical bullish target seen at 1.5350 even 1.5530 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement on Friday, made another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The bullish correction scenario testing 91.50 remains intact but we know that price is not really able to stay consistently above 90.50 last week indicating limited bullish. Another movement back below 90.50 could diminish the bullish correction momentum testing 89.50 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant movement on Friday, break below 1.0640 support area. This fact could trigger further bearish correction targeting 1.0507 area but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel the major bullish scenario remains intact and any downside movement should be seen as a corrective movement. Another move back above 1.0640 area could diminish the bearish correction scenario testing 1.0888 area once again.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 125.19 but closed lower at 124.47. The bullish scenario after touched the double bottom around 119.70 area remains intact but we need a consistent move above 125.15 resistance area to continue further bullish momentum targeting 126.90 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 124.00. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 123.00.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving inside a bullish channel after bottomed at 132.00/50 area indicating bullish correction phase but still in the context of a major bearish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish correction scenario at least targeting 138.30 area remains intact. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 141.40 area. Immediate support at 137.00 followed by 136.10.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another indecisive movement on Friday, made another Doji on daily chart. On h1 chart below we have a double top formation after bullish rally from 0.8982 area indicating potential downside reversal scenario as bullish momentum wanes. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9040 area but the major bullish scenario remains intact so I still prefer a bullish scenario with buy on dips strategy. Initial resistance at 0.9138 (double top). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9250 and 0.9326 region.

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