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Monday, March 8, 2010
Mar-08 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.3530 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.3619 and keep moving higher around 1.3650 at the time I wrote this comment. Overall the pair is still in consolidation and bullish correction phase with technical corrective target around 1.3750 – 1.3850 area but still within the major bearish scenario as price still move inside the major bearish channel. Immediate support at 1.3600 followed by 1.3530. Break below 1.3530 area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing key support 1.3450/35 (triple bottom).


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday. As you can see on my daily chart below price bounce back to the upside after touched the major trendline support, indicating potential upside correction scenario but the main trend should remain bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.5100. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5000. Initial resistance at 1.5250. Break above that area should trigger further upside momentum testing 1.5380 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 90.58 and closed at 90.34. This fact should trigger further bullish correction scenario targeting 91.50 and the major trendline resistance area but we need a consistent move above 90.50 area to continue the bullish correction scenario. However note that the major trend should remain bearish as long as price move below the major trendline resistance. Immediate support at 90.00 followed by 89.50.


USDCHF Forecast
As you can see on my h4 chart below, the USDCHF still trapped in range area of 1.0888 – 1.0640 area indicating consolidation but still in the context of major bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think the best strategy is to short around 1.0888 or long around 1.0640 with tight stop loss. Break above 1.0888 – 1.0900 area should continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.1000 while a break below 1.0640 should trigger further bearish correction towards 1.0507 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 123.32 and closed at 123.05. This fact should trigger further bullish momentum, but as you can see on h4 chart below we have a good technical resistance around the trendline. We need a clear break above the trendline to continue the bullish scenario targeting 125.15 area. Note that the major trend remains bearish and the current bullish momentum is just a corrective move. Immediate support at 122.80 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 121.70 area and diminish the bullish correction scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 137.03 and closed at 136.81. The bias is bullish in nearest term but as you can see on my h4 chart below we have a good resistance around the trendline resistance area. We need a break above the trendline to continue the bullish momentum targeting 139.50 area. Also note that the current bullish momentum is just a corrective move while the main trend should remains bearish. Immediate support at 136.50. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 134.70 and could be a potential threat to the bullish correction scenario.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 0.9092 and closed at 0.9079. The fact that price is now convincingly stay above 0.9040 area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9140 – -0.9180 area. Another movement back below 0.9040 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

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